Is now the time to buy-low on Le’Veon Bell?
Hallelujah! The elections are finally over, and we’re all still alive. Some are worse off than others, but I bet that most of us still got up and went to work the next day just like the day before. Social media will rage on for a while, but it’s nice to finally be able to put all of that insanity behind us and get back to what really matters. Of course, I’m talking about fantasy football! With Week 10’s byes affecting multiple fantasy-friendly teams, and with a trade deadline just around the corner in many leagues, now should be a busy time for owners trying to make a couple of late-season transactions. If you happen to be one of those people–odds are pretty good you are–then hopefully you’ll find the following useful.
Import your team for free to get waiver wire advice 
BUY
It’s not every week you see Bell as a suggested buy-low target, but that’s exactly where he finds himself heading into his Week 10 matchup against the Cowboys. This current “low” of Bell’s comes as the Steelers struggle with a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger (knee) leading the offense. Roethlisberger returned to action in Week 9 but looked ineffective, to say the least. Still affected by his recent knee surgery, Roethlisberger had a difficult time avoiding pressure and, as a result, was too rushed to marshal an effective passing game. That lack of a respectable air attack all0wed an already excellent Baltimore run defense (second in the league in total rushing yards allowed and third in total rushing touchdowns) to devote even more attention to stopping Bell who finished with just 70 yards from scrimmage and no touchdowns. In fact, not only was Bell held out of the end zone against Baltimore, but he’s yet to record a touchdown this entire season. Coming into 2016, Bell has averaged just over 0.5 touchdowns per game, so the scoring drought is bound to end any week now. On top of that, Roethlisberger, barring setback, should continue to increase his mobility which will help to spread out the offense and open more rushing lanes.
Bell is not suffering from a lack of talent, but from unfortunate circumstances outside of his control, that should only improve with time. The Cowboy’s run defense is one of the best in the league, so Week 10 could be another tough one for the Michigan State product, but with a talent like his, you’re going to want to take a deal whenever you can. Waiting another week could prove fruitful if Dallas can stop Bell like they have most everyone else so far, but you should at least get a feel for how expensive he is right now. Still a top-five back (and really, more like top-three), regarding weekly potential, Bell is a buy-low you need to make a go at while he’s still attainable.
HOLD
Thomas could have a better rest of the season than Brandin Cooks. That seems crazy at first, but after Week 9, it’s more likely than you’d first think. In each week this season, Cooks has seen between six and nine targets, but that consistent attention hasn’t resulted in consistent production. Much like his first two seasons, Cooks has shown more boom or bust potential than anything else. Out of his eight weeks played this season, Cooks has compiled two booms, two blands (just go with it) and four busts. Opposite Cooks, however, is Thomas who, while seeing more sporadic target totals (as low as five and as high as 13), has actually been the more reliable fantasy receiver. In standard ESPN leagues, Thomas has put up 10 or more fantasy points in all but three weeks this season. He’s proven he has a pretty solid floor as a fantasy WR2, and it may get even better as it looks like he’s climbed his way past Willie Snead to second on the depth chart – and he may not be finished. If you own Thomas, consider holding onto him for a while longer, if not the rest of the season. His stock is currently rising, and, with the exception of a possible Week 10 Denver road bump, should continue to do so for at least a couple more weeks. Because of his upcoming matchup and the fact that he had a monster Week 9, owners targeting him may want to wait to make a move until after Sunday so that last week’s performance isn’t as fresh in everyone’s memories. The obvious exceptions to these holds will be selling Thomas if you’re offered WR1 value, and buying him if the price is around WR2/WR3 value.
SELL
Mark Ingram (RB – NO) & Tim Hightower (RB – NO)
The only thing I like about either of these guys (other than their most recent production) is their schedule – it’s fifth easiest against the run to finish the season. Other than that, however, both Ingram and Hightower are currently valued far higher than they should be. Each player, if handed definite lead back duties, is capable of cranking out borderline RB1/RB2 numbers, but it’s hard to see that happening anytime soon. Ingram has more upside because he’s simply more talented than Hightower, but evidently, Sean Payton doesn’t care much for statistics. Payton benched a historically sure-handed Ingram after he fumbled the ball twice (once in Week 7 and once in Week 8) for a less talented, more turnover prone, 30-year-old Hightower. In the fantasy world, Hightower has performed admirably over the past two weeks, but in the real world…not so much. He’s averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, requiring 26 touches to break 100 yards and 23 touches to break 80. The New Orleans backup is putting up similar numbers to Ingram while needing 50 percent more attempts to do so. Those stats make for a compelling “Start Ingram!” argument, which means, if you must target one of the two to buy, he’s probably the one to shoot for, just do so cautiously. The Saints’ backfield is one cloudy committee, and while last week was fun, the San Francisco 49ers don’t come around every week. As I opened with, they do have an easy schedule moving forward, but the potential bust each player represents while the committee exists is something that should be avoided if possible, especially in the playoffs. Both guys played well in Week 9 so see what you can get for them now, and if it doesn’t work out, you may be able to try again next week.
After a crazy Week 9 against Denver, in which he recorded 127 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns, Murray’s stock is soaring (for him). He’s put together a useful fantasy season so far, but that success has rested on his touchdowns rather than total yardage. After eight weeks, Murray has scored an impressive eight touchdowns while averaging just 49 yards per game. It’s not impossible to have a productive fantasy season while relying on touchdowns as your main source of scoring, but guys like that are typically more hit or miss than that of their yard-amassing counterparts. Not only should Murray’s reliability be called into question, but he’s also bound for a regression anytime now. He’s currently on pace to more than double his touchdown total from last year while also seeing significantly fewer touches. After Week 9, it’s certainly going to be difficult to trade Murray away, because no one wants to part with a player the week after they go off, but you won’t be able to expect anything near that kind of production moving forward. While the Oakland offensive line has made a name for itself this year and should continue to open lanes for the ground game, Murray’s just too risky to warrant riding his current high. Better to cash in now and get yourself a player you can seriously count on in the playoffs than to sit on a guy who could keep you guessing more often than not.
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
George Haw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from George, check out his archive and follow him @georgeWarfieldH.
