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Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Week 12

Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Week 12
Matt Forte

Matt Forte should be an RB1 over the remainder of the season

Happy Thanksgiving and welcome to our last installment of the fantasy football stock watch! For leagues in which trades are still a thing, time remains to make the necessary last minute improvements to your lineup – and considering what happened last week, chances are you’ll need to. Week 11 was another devastating one regarding injuries as big-name players went down all across the country. Fantasy starters Andrew Luck, A.J. Green, LeSean McCoy, C.J. Prosise, Zach Miller, Giovani Bernard, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles all sustained injuries, making them questionable for Week 12 or, in some cases, ending their season altogether. Whether you own one of those guys or not, their injuries mean many owners are scrambling, and that means opportunity is a knocking. There are no shortage of guys to target this week, so check out the following and good luck as you make that last playoff push.

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BUY

Matt Forte (RB – NYJ)

Following a four-week lull in production, Forte turned things back around and has been a reliable fantasy asset since Week 7. Over his last four weeks, the veteran running back has averaged an impressive 18.5 fantasy points in standard ESPN leagues, and that success should carry on through to the end of your fantasy playoffs. As the lead back in an otherwise ineffective offense, Forte has been, and will continue to be, relied upon heavily. As long as he can avoid injury, he should sustain his current usage of around 20 rushing attempts per game, and, considering the Jets have one of the easiest remaining schedules against running backs, also keep up (if not improve upon) his current production. If you’re deep enough elsewhere, think hard about targeting Forte, because extra depth at running back means more than it does at any other position. Forte should be a solid RB1 the rest of the way but is probably seen by some, right now, as a borderline RB1/RB2.

Todd Gurley (RB – LA)

To put it mildly, Gurley has not lived up to expectations this season. By this time last year, he had recorded four games of 100 or more rushing yards and a total of six touchdowns. Compare that to his current season of four touchdowns and zero 100-yard games, and you have an idea of just how bad it’s been for Gurley and his owners. Those owners have to be beyond frustrated by now, and that means there’s probably a deal to be had. While he has been disappointing, Gurley is still just as talented as ever and will continue to see 15 or more touches per game. Given that expected workload, one should expect things to heat up starting this week against New Orleans. The Saints have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns of any team this year and are just one of the many promising matchups the Rams’ running back will see from here on out. After the Saints, Los Angeles will face off against Atlanta in Week 14 and San Francisco in Week 16. They do play a couple of tougher defenses in New England and Seattle, but the timing of those previously mentioned softball matchups is too great to ignore. If you can get Gurley for an RB2 price tag and the opportunity to play him against three of the worst rushing defenses in the league, two of which come during the fantasy playoffs, there should be no hesitation.

SELL

Robert Kelley (RB – WSH)

After a mid-season awakening, Kelley has quickly become a familiar name. Since Matt Jones went down in Week 7, Kelley has risen from backup status to the new No. 1 ball carrier in Washington. In his last three games, the Redskins’ rookie has recorded 87, 97 and 137 yards on the ground, respectively, to go along with four total touchdowns. It’s almost a sure thing that Kelley will remain as the lead back for the rest of the season, but that’s about all one should accept as a sure thing coming out of Washington.

Each year the Redskins start the season with moderate to low expectations, and each year they somehow manage to convince a surprisingly large number of people that they’re better than they really are. Sure, this year they have plenty of talent, but it’s not a lack of talent that’s held them back in years past. Consistency is what the Redskins have always been without, and believing they’ve found it this time around is a proposition that requires placing faith above evidence. If you prefer such a strategy, by all means, go for it, but one then has to wonder why you would waste time researching when it’s not reason that guides your hand but wishful thinking. Washington’s remaining schedule isn’t exactly a cake walk, and the Kirk Cousins lead offense is going to have a difficult time keeping up its current pace. Kelley could very well be an RB1 in the eyes of your league, and if that’s the case, he should be dealt now, before a probable regression ensues.

Frank Gore (RB – IND)

This one is a little tough, and if you don’t want to think about trading away one of the most consistent backs in the league, that’s completely understandable. Gore has had double-digit fantasy performances in all but two weeks so far this season. That kind of reliability is impressive on its own, but it is that much more valuable during a year when running backs are dropping like flies. If you look at his remaining schedule, however, things don’t look quite as promising. Gore will play Pittsburgh this week, travel to the Jets’ home field next week, host the Texans the week after that and then finish his fantasy season by going to Minnesota and Oakland in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively. The Week 16 Oakland matchup shouldn’t be bad, but other than that, there’s not much to love if you’re a Gore owner. Considering his schedule, Gore is probably a mid to high-end RB2 going forward, but there’s a good chance many of you will be able to get RB1 talent in return, in which case, I suggest you take that deal.


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George Haw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from George, check out his archive and follow him @georgeWarfieldH.

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