A matchup against the Lions’ defense presents a golden opportunity for Coby Fleener
Week 13 of the 2016 NFL season is upon us. In the fantasy football world, many are vying for playoff spots or positioning in the tournament, while the remaining teams have their first round byes locked up or are playing the role of the spoiler if they are eliminated. Through injuries and bye weeks, players that include Tyrell Williams, Jordan Howard and Cameron Brate worked their way up their respective team’s depth charts into fantasy relevance. That select group is described as under the radar fantasy options.
Today, we will dive into the upcoming slate of matchups for Week 13 and determine who’s in and who’s out of your starting lineups. This article is an under the radar analysis, however. The fantasy elite need not be listed.
- Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans are on their bye.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (Thursday night)
In – Kyle Rudolph (TE – MIN)
2016 has been Rudolph’s season. Barring injury, he is on track to surpass his career-high totals in receptions (53), yards receiving (495) and with a strong finish, in touchdowns (nine) as well. He currently holds a 48-468-5 stat line in those categories and will add to those totals against Dallas on Thursday night. The Cowboys defense is ranked sixth in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends giving up 9.6 FPPG and are historically giving to the position.
Dallas’ Achilles heel this year has been their pass defense. With time in the pocket, Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford is as efficient as they come and is poised to expose Dallas’ weaknesses.
Rudolph is second on the team in targets (78) and No. 1 in touchdowns receiving. He’ll find the end zone again Thursday night.
Out – Jerick McKinnon (RB – MIN)
Dallas’ defense is ranked third in total rushing and 30th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. McKinnon, who hasn’t scored since Week 4, should be benched Thursday night despite being listed as Minnesota’s starter.
He is a touchdown-dependent RB3, whose backup, Matt Asiata, is labeled a touchdown vulture. Asiata has scored in three straight and is the club’s goal line back, which extremely limits McKinnon’s upside. He will not end his touchdown drought against Dallas, bench him.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
In – Marvin Jones (WR – DET)
Jones comes to mind when thinking of players who have been an utter disappointment following an outstanding start to the year. He is in the midst of a five-game scoring drought but has a juicy matchup ahead to bust him out of it.
New Orleans owns the 25th ranked pass defense and are 17th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts. After allowing Tavon Austin to produce a 4-45-1 stat line last week, the Saints’ defense is a prime opponent for Jones to face to get his season back on track.
In – Coby Fleener (TE – NO)
Fleener was supposed to be the next tight end in line to follow in the footsteps of Jimmy Graham and Benjamin Watson on the Saints to account for borderline elite TE1 production in 2016. However, he’s fallen short of expectations in his first year with the club. He is ranked 11th in fantasy scoring at his position with 70.3 points and has ridden fantasy benches and even the waiver wire throughout the course of the season.
For those owners who have held on to Fleener through the ups and downs, they will be compensated in Sunday’s matchup against Detroit. The Lions’ defense is ranked No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends and are nearly exposed on a weekly basis.
Fleener’s best games this year have occurred against opponents who struggle to contain tight ends. In three games — two vs. Carolina, one vs. Atlanta — Fleener caught 16 passes for 200 yards receiving and four total touchdowns (one rushing).
In the remaining eight contests, he caught 21 receptions for 261 yards and zero scores. Fleener should account for his fourth quality outing of 2016 in Week 13. Start him with confidence.
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
In – T.J. Yeldon (RB – JAC)
Denver’s defense has been surprisingly giving versus the run this year. They rank 10th in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs and Yeldon could account for a quality outing against them Sunday, especially with Chris Ivory questionable with a hamstring injury.
If Ivory sits, Yeldon will garner the majority of the touches. He is a desperation start for Week 13 whose upside peaks in PPR scoring formats — as he is Jacksonville’s primary receiver out of the backfield.
In – Devontae Booker (RB – DEN)
Since Booker’s clunker in Week 9 against the Raiders, in which he totaled 11 touches for 30 yards, he’s been given at least 25 touches in back-to-back games. Although he’s only topped 100 total yards once in those contests, the opportunities are there and should continue Sunday against Jacksonville.
The Jaguars’ defense is ranked 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, which bodes well for Booker’s statistical outlook for Week 13. He should find the end zone for the first time since Oct. 30 this week and produce well over double-digit fantasy points as well.
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
In – C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE – HOU)
Fiedorowicz has been a pleasant surprise for his fantasy owners in 2016. He is second on the Texans in receptions (39), third in targets (59) and yards receiving (429), and tied for first in touchdowns (three).
He is facing a Packers defense that is ranked ninth in fantasy points allowed to opposing TEs and has allowed teams to shred them through the air this year. Start Fiedorowicz with confidence in this favorable matchup.
In – James Starks (RB – GB)
Since returning from injury in Week 10, Starks has been the featured rusher of Green Bay’s depleted backfield. He’s accounted for double-digit fantasy points in standard leagues in 2-of-3 contests and is eyeing to make it 3-of-4 Sunday facing Houston’s defense that is ranked 11th in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs.
Starks is also employed in the passing game, catching 13 passes for 84 yards and a pair of scores in his past three games. He’s a fine low-end RB2/ Flex option for Sunday.
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Out – Jay Ajayi (RB – MIA)
After Ajayi’s mid-season surge of production, he’s quieted down in recent weeks. In his past three games, he’s only scored one touchdown and has not exceeded the 79-yard rushing mark. Facing Baltimore’s No. 1 defense in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs, Ajayi will likely be bottled up for most of the afternoon. He is a touchdown-dependent for RB2 for Week 13.
In – Kenneth Dixon (RB – BAL)
Dixon out-touched starter, Terrance West last week 17-to-16 and out-gained him in total yards as well, 80-to-64. Although West is labeled the starter, Dixon is emerging as the better fantasy back. In a tough matchup facing Miami’s 20th ranked defense in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, Dixon is the player to own and start from Baltimore’s backfield for Week 13 and moving forward.
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots
Out – Dion Lewis (RB – NE)
Since making his 2016 debut two weeks ago, Lewis has been underwhelming for his fantasy owners. He is averaging nine touches per game, 53.5 yards per game and is behind LeGarrette Blount and James White in the pecking order for opportunities. Lewis should remain on fantasy benches until a more clear cut role is carved out for him in the offense.
Out – Tavon Austin (WR – LA)
Austin simply cannot be trusted this season. He caught four passes for 45 yards and a touchdown last week, but he has been invisible for the three games prior. Even in extreme circumstances, fantasy owners should look elsewhere for a low-end wideout/ Flex option for Week 13. Austin is a declining WR4 in a sub-par passing offense for the rest of the way.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
In – Colin Kaepernick (QB – SF)
Kaepernick has been on fire of late, showcasing his abilities as a rusher and a passer. Since Week 10, he’s the second ranked fantasy QB with 76.4 points and averaging 25.5 FPPG, behind only a red-hot Aaron Rodgers. Kaepernick’s recent surge makes him a low-end QB1 option for Sunday’s inviting matchup against the Bears, whose defense is ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed to opposing signal callers.
In – Jordan Howard (RB – CHI)
At this point of the year, it is virtually a no-brainer to start a lead running back against the 49ers. They have the No. 1 ranked defense in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs and Howard is poised to feast on them Sunday. He is averaging 10.2 FPPG over his last three games should easily continue that streak in Week 13.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
In – Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
Hill came alive last Sunday night scoring a touchdown as a rusher, a receiver and as a returner. He’s garnered 28 targets over his last three games, in which he caught 23 of them for 194 yards and a touchdown.
He’s been Kansas City’s most effective offensive weapon in the second half of the year and will face a Falcons defense Sunday that has been treacherous versus the pass. Hill is a rising low-end WR3 whose upside runs in line with solid WR2 production.
In – Alex Smith (QB – KC)
Smith is coming off of a 15 point performance last Sunday night against a tough Broncos’ secondary. However, he has an easier task ahead facing Atlanta in Week 13.
The Falcons’ defense is ranked No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to opposing signal callers, which bodes well for Smith’s statistical outlook for the favorable matchup. With Marcus Mariota on a bye, Smith is a solid QB2 streamer who should exceed 20 fantasy points for the first time since Week 1.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals
Out – Jeremy Hill (RB – CIN)
Hill struggled to run the ball last week against a stout Baltimore defense tallying only 21 yards on 12 carries. He did, however, catch 6-of-6 targets for 61 yards and totaled 8.2 fantasy points as a result.
He is facing another stingy defense this week in the form of the Eagles, who are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing rushers. Although Hill will garner ample opportunities especially with Giovani Bernard out, he remains a touchdown-dependent low-end RB2 in a reeling offense.
In – Zach Ertz (TE – PHI)
Ertz caught 3-of-6 targets for 36 yards last week against Green Bay, be he is primed to bounce back Sunday facing a Bengals’ defense ranked fourth in fantasy points allowed to opposing TEs. With Jordan Matthews questionable with an ankle injury, Ertz becomes the No. 1 option for Carson Wentz in Philadelphia’s passing attack. Ertz is a back-end TE1 for Week 13, start him with confidence.
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills
In – Sammy Watkins (WR – BUF)
Watkins will be a factor in his second game back from injury in a matchup against Oakland that is expected to end up a shootout. He caught 3-of-3 targets for 80 yards last week while playing in 45 percent of Buffalo’s offensive snaps.
Those numbers will increase this week facing a Raiders defense ranked seventh in fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts. With his foot close to 100 percent, Watkins is in the WR2 conversation for Week 13 and for the rest of the way.
In – Tyrod Taylor (QB – BUF)
Taylor will attempt to put together back-to-back 20 point fantasy outings this Sunday against the Raiders. Oakland’s defense is ranked seventh in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and is an excellent matchup for Taylor to showcase if rapport with Sammy Watkins in the wideout’s second game back from injury. Taylor is a reliable middling QB2 streamer for Week 13.
New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers
Out – Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG)
Shepard had scored touchdowns in three straight games leading up to last week’s contest against Cleveland. However, in the favorable matchup, he was not targeted. His woes will likely continue this week facing a Steelers defense ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs.
In a conservative offense that is fueled by Odell Beckham Jr.’s big plays, Shepard is sometimes a lost cause. His target-share must increase before he is considered a trustable fantasy option.
In – Ladarius Green (TE – PIT)
Green is a rising TE2 who could breakout against the Giants this week. New York’s defense is historically soft against opposing TEs and could leave the middle of the field wide open Sunday while they try to contain Antonio Brown and Sammie Coates on the outside. He is worth a look in deeper leagues with Jordan Reed’s playing status up in the air and Delanie Walker on his bye.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers
In – Tyrell Williams (WR – SD)
Williams suffered a shoulder injury last week against Houston after posting an 8-70-1 stat line on one of the league’s best pass defenses. He should be good to for Sunday’s matchup against Tampa Bay, whose defense is ranked 14th in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs. If he plays, he will be in the low-end WR2 conversation for Week 13.
Out – Travis Benjamin (WR – SD)
After a productive start to 2016, Benjamin cooled off in the second half of the season. He’s been dealing with a knee injury and has been overshadowed by Tyrell Williams in recent weeks while seeing a gradual dropoff in his target share. He’s only garnered three tagetes in his past two games will continue to see a lull in his opportunities as long as Williams is playing at a high-level. Benjamin is a risky fantasy option for Week 13.
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals
Out – Rob Kelley (RB – WAS)
After putting together a monster game in Week 11 against Green Bay in which he rushed for 137 yards and three touchdowns, Kelley was stymied by Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. He will have a difficult time getting back on track Sunday facing an angry Cardinals defense ranked 31st in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. With yards expected to be hard to come by, Kelley is a touchdown-dependent RB2 for Week 13. Bench him if possible.
In – Carson Palmer (QB – ARI)
In the midst of a disappointing 2016 campaign, Palmer is coming off of an uplifting performance last week against Atlanta in which he threw for 289 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He has another welcoming matchup ahead facing a Redskins defense ranked 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and could continue to turn his season around just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Palmer is a borderline QB1/ QB2 in a Week 13 matchup poised to become a high-scoring affair.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
In – Doug Baldwin (WR – SEA)
After accounting for three touchdowns in Week 11 against New England, Baldwin is on a two-game scoring drought and will look to right the ship Sunday versus the Panthers. Carolina’s defense is susceptible to the pass in 2016 and is ranked eighth in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs.
In six career games facing Carolina, Baldwin has produced a 30-332-1 stat line and will build on those numbers this week. He is a middling WR2 for Week 13, start him with certainty.
Out – Jonathan Stewart (RB – CAR)
Stewart is coming off of a huge 21.6 fantasy point outing last week against Oakland, but he is a risky fantasy option Sunday versus Seattle’s stout run defense. They are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing rushers and will tighten up their defensive front for a late-season playoff push. Aside from a 95-yard, two touchdown performance versus Arizona earlier in the year, Stewart has been ineffective in games against tough run defenses in 2016. He is unlikely to account for many productions this week unless he finds the end zone. If possible, avoid Stewart for Week 13.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (Monday Night)
In – Donte Moncrief (WR – IND)
Moncrief could have been one of fantasy football’s best wideouts in 2016 until a shoulder injury forced him to miss six games earlier in the year. Since his Week 8 return, Moncrief has awarded his fantasy owners with touchdowns in four straight contests. Facing New York’s beatable secondary on Monday night, Moncrief is in line for a big performance, especially if T.Y. Hilton is limited with his back injury. Moncrief is a rising WR2 who could dance with the WR1 tier if Hilton is inactive in Week 13.
In – Frank Gore (RB – IND)
After accumulating at least 10 fantasy points in five consecutive games, Gore plummeted back down to earth last week against Pittsburgh. He only scored three fantasy points in the matchup, but the Colts were hampered by injuries on the offensive side of the football, leaving Gore as the focal point of the offense.
With Andrew Luck expected to return this week, the Jets will have to focus on shutting down the pass, which leaves an opening for Gore to exploit without the extra man in the box. Despite heading into a tough matchup against the Jets on Monday night, Gore remains a quality fantasy starter for Week 13.
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Anthony Cervino is a primary contributor for FantasyPros and a lead NFL News Desk correspondent. To read more from Anthony, visit his archive or follow him on Twitter @theRealNFLguru. Feel free to tweet or message him with any NFL or fantasy-related questions. Anthony will always give you his best.
