Brian McCann carries a solid floor into the 2017 fantasy season
As the Yankees continue to purge their roster of veteran players, another one is on the move. Brian McCann was traded to Houston for two pitching prospects who will need time to develop before they become fantasy relevant. This is a tenuous time as teams need to adjust the 40-man roster and fantasy moves seem to be a bit under the radar. McCann hardly moves the needle with the move to the Astros, but his pending platoon with Evan Gattis could be a lethal duo for a team trying to shore up its offense.
Since 2006, McCann has played in at least 120 games 10 time in the 11-year span. He has played in 130 or more games eight times and 140 or more games three times during his career. More impressively, McCann has hit at least 20 home runs in 10 of the last 11 seasons. There probably is no fantasy ceiling in his move to Houston, but McCann represents a very predictable floor.
Offensive flaws aside, which have been augmented by his inability to adjust to shifts, McCann is a known fantasy commodity. Over the last three years, he has averaged 463 at-bats, 23 home runs and 76 RBI with a .235/.313/.418 slash line per season. Last year, McCann saw his batting average rebound to .242 in 130 games with 20 home runs and 58 RBI, but his replacement in New York (Gary Sanchez) was able to hit 20 home runs in only 53 contests which expedited his departure from New York.
With the knowledge of McCann’s last three year averages as a baseline of production, it should be noted he has enjoyed his visits to Minute Maid Park. McCann had 27 at-bats in Houston the last three seasons with two home runs, six RBI and a .259/.310/.481 slash line. Of course, he was facing Astro pitchers, but a new ballpark can allow a hitter to adjust. When looking at his fly balls last year superimposed with his new home park as the backdrop, McCann would have hit two more home runs to the short porch in left field.
This is an important nugget to stash away as McCann has struggled to overcome the shift. Could the proximity of the opposite field fence give him something to shoot for by going the other way? Taking a look at his batted ball data, McCann had a 13.7 home run per fly ball percentage last year with a career rate of 13 percent. His hard contact rate did rise to 35.5 percent which is encouraging. It is also worth noting McCann’s swinging strike percentage rose to 7.8 percent while his contact rate dropped to 81.9 percent. Although his home run per fly ball rate did not see an increase, he was more aggressive last year.
When hitting the ball to the opposite field last year, McCann had a .379 average with a .500 slugging and .873 OPS. His BABIP jumped to .362 when McCann hit the ball to left field and he hit fly balls 67.2 percent of the time. For those who are interested, the Crawford Boxes are only 315 feet away in left field.
This is not rocket science. If McCann can simply adjust his approach to beat the shift by hitting to the opposite field, he could see a boost in his home run production by hitting fly balls to left field next year. Losing the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium may scare off many fantasy owners from McCann. But his platoon with Evan Gattis in Houston may not only provide the Astros with more runs, fantasy owners could profit as well.
There is nothing really sexy about Brian McCann in fantasy for the upcoming season, but he represents a solid catcher at a time when streaming the position is becoming the norm. His slugging percentage has been on the decline but the allure of left field could allow McCann to mitigate the damage to his value. At a time when fantasy owners will chase the corner positions and outfield early in drafts, waiting for a veteran catcher like McCann makes sense along with providing a chance at profiting on the return.
Greg Jewett is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Greg, check out his archive and follow him @gjewett9.
