Will a move to Houston help Josh Reddick’s fantasy value?

I’ve got two very close friends and fantasy baseball frenemies, both of whom are named John. John 1 is analytical, stat-oriented, meticulous and a Mets fan. John 2 is a Braves fan and his nickname is knee-slap. Enough said.

For obvious reasons, they don’t often see eye-to-eye on fantasy baseball players, and text arguments can go on for days and get heated. So, for fun and to start a little debate, I asked them for the fantasy impact, in five words or less, of Josh Reddick signing with the Astros.

Knee-slap John replied: “Still a $1 player at best.” Analytical John replied: “Platoon player. Not even sure he gets drafted.” That was all. No “your argument is unconscionable” from Analytical John.  No “your argument is dumb because you’re dumb” from Knee-slap John. They just blatantly ignored my five-word limit and moved on.

If even the Johns can’t disagree on this one, then this article isn’t going to be much fun. And, unfortunately, they’re both right. Reddick was the 198th player selected in ADP in 2016 and the 59th outfielder taken. Since then, he has moved from a horrible lineup and a pitcher-friendly park (the A’s and O.co Coliseum) to a decent lineup and an equally pitcher-friendly park (the Dodgers and Dodger Stadium) and finally now to a very good lineup and a neutral park, at least for lefties (the Astros and Minute Maid Park).

Although I haven’t done my 2017 rankings yet, you know where I’ll probably have Reddick ranked after all his moves? Around 200th overall and around the 60th outfielder, right where he was this year. Sure, the move to a better park and lineup is great, but we’re talking about an injury-prone outfielder who will be 30 at the start of spring training and can’t hit lefties (.641 career OPS). Yes, his WAR is fine (Steamer projects him to have the same WAR as Adam Jones and Kole Calhoun next season). But a) a player’s WAR is cumulative and includes a player’s defense, and b) WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing (That’s just a Seinfeld reference, guys. What do you want from me? I’m trying to make a Josh Reddick article seem exciting. Cut me some slack.).

Let’s be fair to Reddick. He batted a career-high .281 last season with a decent .345 OBP and very solid 0.7 BB/K ratio. He should see enough playing time to pop about 15 homers and add 5-10 steals, with counting stats that won’t kill you. Those stats are useful in deep mixed leagues, especially those with daily lineup changes which would allow you to sub out Reddick when the Astros play a lefty starter.

But don’t get too excited about the park change or the substantial contract (except to the extent that the contract shows how bad the qualifying offer system is. Really? Josh Reddick has no trouble swinging that huge long-term contract while Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler fought for scraps?). Guys like Reddick are what they are at this point in their careers, and absent playing for the Rockies, their value will stay largely consistent no matter where they end up. Even the Johns agree!

Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.