Kendrys Morales’ chances of another 30-home run season improved in signing with the Blue Jays

While the big chips this winter have yet to gain traction in contract negotiations, there were some smaller deals culminated this week. In a move which signals the Blue Jays may be preparing for the potential losses of both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion via free agency, they signed Kendrys Morales for a reported three years and $33 million dollars. This is a preemptive move but should signal they will lose at least one of the above players, if not both, this winter.

Here’s a look at Morales’ 2016 totals: 154 Games, 65 Runs, 30 HR, 93 RBI, .263/.327/.468

Any time a player moves from a spacious ballpark such as Kauffman Stadium to a hitter’s haven like Rogers Centre, his value should improve. Morales will test this theory as he has signed a three-year deal to be the Blue Jays’ designated hitter. Although his on-base percentage took a step backward last year, he reached 30 home runs for the first time since 2009 and was only seven RBI short of 100.

Part of his home run surge can be attributed to his home run per fly ball percentage rising to 19 percent in 2016 and his hard contact rate rising from 35.3 percent in 2015 to 41.1 percent last season. This is in spite of his swinging strike percentage and contact rates remaining stable. Morales started the year slow but picked up his production hitting .270 with 15 home runs in the second half. 

Another reason for optimism by the Blue Jay front office has to be the increased home run and fly ball distances Morales had last year. In 2015, Morales averaged 297.26 feet which was 44th overall in baseball. But his average distance rose to 306.07 feet last year and was 20th overall in the rankings. Over the last three seasons, Morales has hit .333/.377/.542 in his 48 at-bats with a .919 OPS in Rogers Centre. Of his 16 hits, eight are for extra bases with seven doubles and one home run. This does not ensure success, but Morales did average a home run every 22.6 at-bats on the road the last three years while it was one every 27 at-bats at home. 

There is no guarantee of Morales hitting 30 home runs or more in 2017, but his odds went up by signing with Toronto. Here are his early projections from two different sites:

• Morales ZiPS projection: 138 Games, 61 Runs, 25 HR, 92 RBI; .264/.327/.470
• Morales Steamer projection: 130 Games, 66 Runs, 23 HR, 77 RBI; .265/.330/.457

It is much too early to get into final projections as how the Blue Jays construct the rest of the lineup will determine some of the counting stats for Morales. Suffice it to say, a move to Toronto enhances his value as a double-digit round target at designated hitter in drafts. Along with the potential to maintain his numbers from last year, add in some hits from his new ballpark and his average could move towards his career .273/.331/.465 slash line. If a few fly balls which were outs in Kansas City make it over the wall in Toronto, then bump up the home run total slightly or at the least, and a run towards 30 once again seems much more viable as a Blue Jay than as a Royal for Morales. Which is good news for potential fantasy owners.

Greg Jewett is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Greg, check out his archive and follow him @gjewett9.