The Mets have been a far better team with Yoenis Cespedes

Yoenis Cespedes signed a four-year, $110 million deal with the New York Mets on Tuesday, returning to the team that has vaulted him from a solid, second-tier outfielder to a bona fide fantasy stud.

You’re reading the second version of this article. The first one was simply various emojis (smiley face, rainbow, shooting star, etc.) and gifs (any famous actor giving a thumbs up or winking). My editors deemed it “not real analysis” and “below even the lowest standards we have.” So, I’ve reworked it a bit to try to provide everyone with something useful.

Let’s get the non-fantasy aspects out of the way. This is pretty much a great deal for everyone. Cespedes is obviously happy with the Mets, gets the highest average annual value contract ever given to an outfielder, and gets the added bonus of betting on himself and winning with last year’s (effectively) one-year deal.

The Mets keep their one legitimate right-handed bat and the guy who has carried them kicking and screaming to the playoffs the last two years (The Mets are 110-79 with Cespedes in the lineup the last two seasons and just 67-68 without him.).  Absent a disaster, the Mets should be competitive for a playoff spot for the next two or three years, until their crop of young pitching breaks down or leaves via free agency. Plus, they get Cespedes without dropping a fifth year, which in the post-steroid era probably would have been disastrous.

It’s a win-win situation. The only downside was that I lost an entire afternoon of work texting my family and friends and haggling with my financial advisor to allow me to withdraw money from my kids’ college accounts to pay for Mets season tickets.

As for fantasy, this should have little impact on Cespedes’ value, and that’s a GREAT thing. Sure, he could have gone to Houston or Texas, which arguably could have pushed his numbers even higher. But Cespedes clearly loves playing in New York and for the Mets, and has excelled since joining the team (48 home runs and 128 RBI in 189 games). We know exactly what he can do playing for the Mets and the relative certainty in fantasy baseball is something fantasy owners need, especially in the early rounds.

Steamer currently projects Cespedes to bat .272 with an .824 OPS, 29 homers, and 89 RBI. I’ll take the over, the over, the over, and . . . the over on all those numbers, please. Nearly all of Cespedes’ underlying numbers – his OBP, slugging percentage, wOBA and wRC+ – remained pretty consistent from 2015-2016, and I’m just not willing to accept that any of them will take a major hit this year, as those projections suggest. Cespedes is just 31 years old and won’t have to worry about playing center field, or the toll it will take on his body, like he did for the first half of 2016.

In short, I’m going to expect similar production to his 2016 season – 31 homers, 86 RBI, a .280 batting average and an .884 OPS, but I’m going to draft him assuming that he plays 145 games instead of the 132 he tallied last year. He was the 43rd player drafted last year according to FantasyPros ADP, and he will probably be drafted around there again. Personally, while I haven’t done my rankings yet, my guess is I’ll have him a few spots higher, and feel pretty good about it.

As for the fantasy fallout on other players, well, the Mets outfield just got pretty overcrowded. You now have Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares, Curtis Granderson, and Jay Bruce. Lagares, the only true center fielder on the team, will stay put, and I’d be blown away if the Mets sell low on Conforto, whom they view (and in my humble opinion, correctly) as a solid, middle of the order hitter for years to come.

That leaves Granderson and Bruce, and the smart money is on Bruce to get dealt. Both players have one year left on their contracts, and Bruce is younger, better, and makes less money. In other words, the Mets can get more for him than Granderson in a trade. Plus, Granderson has been a huge part of the core of the team over the last two seasons, and poor Bruce drew the ire of the fanbase with a terrible and lengthy slump. My guess is Bruce gets dealt (to Toronto perhaps) for either bullpen pieces or prospects.

In the end, the outfielder most affected by the Cespedes signing is likely Conforto. Without Cespedes’ right-handed bat in the outfield, the Mets would be choosing between Granderson, Conforto, and Bruce as to which one to sit against a lefty (when Lagares would take over in center field). Most likely, Bruce and Conforto would have alternated resting on those days. Now, assuming Bruce is dealt, Conforto will likely sit against lefties for most of the season.

That cuts both ways for fantasy purposes. It hurts Conforto’s value because it means fewer counting stats, but it can be helpful to those who play in leagues with daily lineup changes, as they can replace Conforto with a bench player on the days he sits. But, in the end, the impact on other players, other than Jay Bruce probably needing to figure out how to get around in another city, is minimal.

So, there you have it. For Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets, their fans, my family, and pretty much everyone other than my financial advisor, Christmas came a little early this year. It’s a fantastic day. Or, as I had originally put it, it’s a unicorn, rocket ship, smiling sun emoji kind of day!

Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.