Is this the week to fade Ezekiel Elliott?
Losing sucks! I know because I lose quite a bit. How much do I lose? More than most of you reading this do. I only lose more than most of you because I play more. I’ve actually profited in daily fantasy sports going on three straight years now.
That doesn’t change the fact that losing sucks and it sucks bad! This past weekend I lost. The last three weeks have been an up and down affair. The worst part about it is the way it happened. I had Ezekiel Elliott and Odell Beckham Jr. in all my lineups. The morning of this past Sunday the line flipped in favor of the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger was set to return and the over/under jumped about three points. This is a lot of faith that suddenly came in on the Steelers. I ignored the fact that Ben has thrown 17 interceptions and only 11 touchdowns against the Ravens up to this point in his career.
I swapped all my Odell Beckham Jr. shares with Antonio Brown and my Ezekiel Elliott shares for Le’Veon Bell. Nevermind Roethlisberger’s legendary home/road splits and how bad he is coming back from injury. How could Vegas be wrong?
The Steelers couldn’t move the ball until the 4th quarter and Bell didn’t score a touchdown. All my lineups tanked, and I lost. I bring this up because in the flurry of tweets highlighting victory on Twitter, there are thousands who quietly lose money without saying a word. If you become a good DFS player you’re going to lose and you’re going to lose a lot! You’ll lose as you build a bankroll and you’ll lose when you start playing high stakes. There is a responsible way to lose and that’s called bankroll management. While my loss stings it’s by no means devastating even though I lost an amount that is equivalent to a weekly paycheck.
How will I adjust? Usually after a few losing or up and down weeks I play a much lower percentage of my bankroll. This is only until I get some momentum going again and everything goes back to normal.
Now, who should we fade this week?
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Philip Rivers (SD) $8,100 vs Miami Dolphins
The San Diego Chargers are finding ways to win without the arm of Rivers. In three of the Chargers four wins, Rivers has thrown for 275 yards or less! In all three of those games the running game played a central part in their victory. While the Dolphins show up as a top 12 team against running backs, that won’t matter. The Titans were a top 10 unit this past weekend and Gordon ran for 196 yards against them.
Rivers won’t have to get involved this week to win. Both the Miami Dolphins and San Diego Chargers have rediscovered what it’s like to run the ball.
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) $8,900 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Elliott is an unstoppable machine at the running back position. He is the most elite running back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson and leads the league in rushing at 891 yards. Unfortunately for him, he has to play the Steelers, who are the 7th ranked defense against the run. This is a game for Dak Prescott to put Tony Romo apologists to bed for good and not necessarily for Elliott to have a monster game. While the Steelers looked horrible on Sunday, they are a completely different team at home. Dak will have to pass to keep up which will negate some of Elliott’s value.
Julio Jones (ATL) $8,800 @ Philadelphia Eagles
Fading Julio is always a huge risk. We’ve seen Julio in prime matchups have huge letdown games. Against the Packers he only had 4.4 fantasy points and only 2.1 fantasy points against the Saints. The Eagles have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball. They can rush the passer and have the personnel to force Matt Ryan to look elsewhere.
Rob Gronkowski (NE) $8,000 vs Seattle Seahawks
By now you’ve seen Rob Gronkowski on my fades list several times. You must think I dislike the Patriots which is completely true! I hate the Patriots, but I also mentioned that fades can last for weeks. The Seattle Seahawks are the fourth best team in the league against tight ends. This is the game Gronkowski busts and doesn’t hit value.
Houston Texans $4,700 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
This looks like a great matchup on paper. The Jaguars are a dumpster fire of an organization. Their once hopeful fanbase has no doubt given up on them. Their explosive offense doesn’t exist, and Blake Bortles’ mechanics have completely regressed to the point of wondering how he could be a starting QB in the NFL! The Texans are leading the division, but the defense isn’t that great without J.J. Watt. There is always the risk of Bortles, AKA captain garbage time, turning it on in the fourth to obliterate the value of your defense.
Alternate Plays
Carson Palmer (ARI) $7,900 vs San Francisco 49ers
Palmer’s best days are behind him. He never was a fast QB and even now looks a step too slow. His timing seems off and when he gets hit. It looks as painful as ever!
The good thing for Palmer is that he gets the San Francisco 49ers coming out of a much-needed bye week. The 49ers are dead last against the run but have also given up 18 touchdowns through the air and only have five interceptions up to this point. Another good thing for Palmer is that his best weapon is David Johnson who runs more passing routes than any other running back in the league.
Le’Veon Bell (PIT) $8,100 vs Dallas Cowboys
The obvious play here is David Johnson, but I’m not here to point out plays even your grandma could make. This last game was a disaster for the Steelers offense. This week most everyone will start David Johnson against the 49ers as well as Jay Ajayi against San Diego and Melvin Gordon against the Dolphins. That will leave an elite talent like Bell under-owned.
Dez Bryant (DAL) $7,500 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
On a run-first team, Bryant has taken a back seat. That doesn’t mean Bryant’s best days are behind him. His big day is coming, and it could very well be this week. Bryant has two games of 12+ targets over the last two weeks. The Steelers will no doubt put pressure on the Cowboys, and Dak will have to throw it to Dez.
Zach Miller (CHI) $5,400 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luckily for Jay Cutler, there is a new quarterback who’s easy to make fun of on social media. That quarterback’s name is Brock Osweiler. Cutler is free to throw picks without as much scrutiny from the media. That means his weapons, like Zach Miller, will reap the benefits. The Buccaneers are ranked 13th worst against tight ends and 5th worst against quarterbacks.
Washington Redskins $4,400 vs Minnesota Vikings
Everyone will be on the Arizona Cardinal defense, and you should be too. If you want to go contrarian, look no further than the Redskins against the struggling Minnesota Vikings. Sam Bradford truly is an average QB. Without an offensive line, he is a bad QB. Time in the pocket is the biggest indicator of quarterback success. In this case, Bradford has no time and no running game to take the pressure off him when he drops back. The Redskins at home is an excellent GPP play.
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Arash Ghaemi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can also find his work at DraftShot.com and follow him @DraftshotAsh.
