Zach Ertz leads all TEs in targets since Week 9

The first week of most seasonal fantasy playoffs, Week 14, proved to be a very brutal one given the rash of injuries suffered, most notably to Melvin Gordon, Donte Moncrief, Ryan Tannehill, Michael Thomas, Theo Riddick and Matthew Stafford. Many seasonal owners, even those who were on bye, were impacted by these injuries. Those lucky Gordon owners who didn’t have byes and somehow managed to win their seasonal fantasy playoff game will be scrambling to find an RB streaming replacement if they didn’t have a viable option stashed on their benches. Similarly, owners of the other high-profile players who went down and who may not be active will now need to reach to their benches or the waiver wire to keep their championship aspirations alive in Week 15.

These tidbits, which shed light on historic performance and player trends, should help you to make up your mind on a streaming option, start/sit dilemma you may be having, and/or enable you to maximize DFS lineup production.

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Since Week 9, Zach Ertz leads all tight ends in targets with 56, and he’s second only to Travis Kelce in yards receiving for a TE over that span.

In Week 14, Zack Ertz exploded for 112 yards receiving on 10 receptions and 13 targets. In his last four games, he has been targeted at least 11 times in three of those four games. In addition, in two of those four games, he has reached the end zone. For owners in need of TE help or a Flex play due to the rash of injuries in Week 14, Ertz is a viable option given how the Philadelphia offense is going through him right now. Dropped by a number of owners earlier this season (including myself…no surprise I was eliminated in all of my fantasy leagues) Ertz is presently owned in only 79% of CBS leagues and could very well be available to the benefit of owners, particularly in PPR formats. In Week 15, the Eagles will take on the Ravens who have a somewhat stout defense, but were just embarrassed on Monday night by the Gronk-less Patriots. Martellus Bennett managed a solid game against the Ravens with a 4-70-1 line, reeling in all four of his targets. Ertz owners could expect similar results, if not a higher Week 15 ceiling if the targets continue to come his way. Ertz should be locked in as a solid TE1 play in Week 15 and, looking ahead, he faces the Giants at home in Week 16, a defense on the rise, but notoriously horrible against TEs. Ertz should be a TE1 for the rest of the fantasy season.

In Week 14, Marcus Mariota completed only 30% of his passes which was the lowest completion percentage in a win by a QB since 2009 (with a minimum of 20 attempts).

JaMarcus Russell with the Raiders was the last QB to accomplish this Houdini act with a 29.2% completion percentage back in 2009. In Week 14, the Titans relied heavily on the running game to defeat the Denver Broncos 13-10. Mariota had an absolutely brutal fantasy game throwing for only 88 yards on 20 attempts (six completions). Obviously, this poor performance had less to do with any shortcoming on the part of Mariota and more to do with the Broncos’ passing defense. It also signifies how the Broncos passing defense can not only alter game plans, but also fantasy seasons. For those owners who relied on Mariota in Week 14, it is likely their season ended. In Week 15, Tom Brady will face the Broncos in Denver. While Brady, coming off a 406-yard performance against the Ravens, should not be benched, Brady owners may need to temper expectations. Due to the matchup, Brady is also a fade option in DFS formats for Week 15. As far as Mariota goes, owners and DFS players may wish to keep him benched/faded where he faces a solid Chiefs defense that just shut down a red-hot Derek Carr on Thursday night. Mariota has a current ECR of 14 on FantasyPros for Week 15 and, per the experts, could be too questionable of a start for the fantasy playoffs, particularly given his historic struggles against a similarly stout defense last week.

In Week 14, Russell Wilson became the first Seahawks QB to throw five interceptions in a game since Jon Kitna did it in 1999.

In addition, according to Elias Sports, the Seahawks’ 38-10 Week 14 loss to Green Bay was the first time the Seahawks lost by more than 10 points since 2011. This incredible 85-game streak without an 11-point (or more) loss was the longest in NFL history. Wilson’s brutal day, of course, directly led to the Packers’ high-scoring total as a result of the five interceptions. Wilson, who has been frustratingly inconsistent this season, has now thrown eight interceptions over the past three games and, over this same three-game stretch, has produced a high total of 19 fantasy points (in Week 13 vs Carolina). This recent stretch of fantasy futility comes after a three-game stretch during Weeks 9-11 where Wilson put up 32, 36 and 27 fantasy points respectively. In Week 15, Wilson has a favorable matchup at home against a reeling Rams team with a new head coach on Thursday night. If there ever was a game where Wilson was going to break out of his recent funk, it would be this Week 15 contest. FantasyPros has a current ECR of six for Wilson for Week 15. That said, his recent struggles make starting him in Week 15 a true gamble, especially considering how low-scoring these Thursday night contests are, despite the fact the Rams just allowed Matt Ryan to throw all over them in Week 14. Owners with other similarly ranked QB options in shallow leagues may wish to fade the struggling Wilson in light of his Week 14 performance. In deeper leagues, owners may have no choice but to roll the dice on Wilson and hope for “good Russell” to show up.

According to Pro Football Focus, since Week 6 Golden Tate is a top-10 WR in targets with 73, and ranks fifth in receiving yards with 685.

In addition to Ertz, please go ahead and add Golden Tate to the list of players I drafted and gave up on way too soon this season (again, it’s no wonder I have been eliminated in all of my leagues following Week 14). Way back in my Week 5 tidbits article, I wrote that Tate’s targets had been limited and he was only pulling in roughly half of them for short gains, recommending that, yes, owners cut Tate from their fantasy rosters. Well, the NFL season is long and unforgiving. The following week, in Week 6, is when Tate went on his target and receiving yard run. Matthew Stafford suddenly decided to infuse Tate into the offense and rely less on Marvin Jones. The result? A very solid WR2 option who was likely available on a number of waiver wires who has produced WR1 numbers since Week 6, particularly in PPR formats. In Week 14, Tate put up a modest 58 yards on six receptions against the Bears. That said, most importantly, he saw 11 targets come his way. In Week 15, the Lions travel to what should be a rainy, cold MetLife Stadium to face a red-hot Giants’ defense. It will be a tough matchup for Tate who will be facing a stout Giants’ secondary. Despite the matchup, it would be difficult to justify sitting Tate at this point, particularly given his target numbers. Seasonal owners may need to temper expectations but should not bench Tate despite the road game against a tough defense. It will be interesting to see how many championship rosters have Tate on them when the fantasy season concludes. On the DFS side, those players should look elsewhere for a WR2 given the matchup and projected rainy forecast in East Rutherford on Sunday.

The Atlanta Falcons’ OL has blocked for 15 rushing TDs so far in 2016.

In Week 15, the Falcons will face the 49ers who rank dead last in rushing defense and overall defense in yards. What does this mean for fantasy owners? It means if you own Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman you better not even think of sitting either of them, even considering Freeman’s dud in Week 14 (an awful six carries for six yards). If you’re facing either (or both) of these RBs, you’ve got problems in Week 15. Bilal Powell just ran for 145 yards on 29 carries (with two TDs) in Week 14 against this rancid defense. That was Powell running behind an uninspired Jets’ OL playing out the 2016 season. What can we expect from Devonta Freeman and/or Tevin Coleman against this same defense on the road in Atlanta? Fire up either RB with confidence in your seasonal playoffs, again, even after Freeman’s dud against the Rams in Week 14. In DFS, logic favors Coleman over Freeman given the price tags of both RBs (Freeman is valued at $7,700 and Coleman is valued at $6,500 on FanDuel). Based on Freeman’s Week 14 game, in comparison to Coleman’stwo-TDD performance in Week 14, Coleman has the hotter hand and may actually be the better option of the two for DFS purposes when taking into consideration their respective price tags.

Good luck to all the surviving owners in Week 2 of the fantasy playoffs.

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Nicky Tapas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicky, check out his archive and follow him @nickytapas71.