Ted Ginn Jr. has four TDs in his last five games
Week 15 is in the books. For those of you still lucky enough to be alive and playing for a fantasy championship this weekend, congratulations and good luck. For the rest of us, it’s on to 2017. Owners in the mix for a fantasy championship who have been bit by the injury bug will need to look to their benches or a thin waiver wire for the best Week 16 matchups to keep their championship hopes alive.
This last weekly installment of tidbits in 2016 will hopefully shed light on historic performance and player trends to help you to make up your mind on a streaming option, a start/sit dilemma you may be having, and/or enable you to maximize DFS lineup production.
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The Giants are now 7-0 in games where Eli Manning has generated a passer rating of 90 or better in 2016.
Big Blue is 3-4 in their other seven games with losses to the Packers, Vikings, Steelers and Redskins. What this tidbit reveals is that when Eli Manning and the Giants’ offense has been clicking, even modestly, their defense has been strong enough to carry the day to an undefeated record. In games where Manning has been particularly brutal with a QB rating below 90 (seven such games), the Giants’ defense has still performed well enough to manage a 3-4 record. With 14 games behind us, it is no longer an overstatement to suggest the Giants’ defense is of championship caliber, particularly over the past few weeks where they have held both the Lions and Cowboys to 13 points combined. With a favorable short-week matchup against the reeling Eagles offense and Carson Wentz on Thursday, the Giants’ D/ST makes for a very intriguing streaming option in seasonal leagues and DFS formats for Week 16. Those owners who have made it thus far by streaming D/STs through the playoffs (I’m looking at you Falcons’ D/ST owners), may want to pick up the Giants (owned in only 47% of CBS leagues and 53.9% of ESPN leagues) for this last seasonal fantasy weekend.
After Week 15, Ted Ginn Jr. now leads the NFL in 30+ yard TD receptions with four.
All four of those TDs have come in his last five games (40, 88, 55 and 30 yards, respectively). Given the fact that Ted Ginn Jr. didn’t have any receiving TDs in his first nine games of the season, it’s apparent the rapport between Cam Newton and Ginn has developed quite nicely over the second half of the 2016 NFL season. In fact, after Newton’s 30-yard TD to Ginn in Week 15 against the Redskins, he now has an NFL-high seven TD passes at least 30 yards downfield (again with four of those to Ginn). DFS players looking for a cheaper contrarian home-run threat in Week 16, look no further than Ginn who comes in at $4,800 on FanDuel and who faces the Falcons in what should be a fun shootout in Carolina. The pure definition of a boom-bust fantasy option, it’s actually unfathomable Ginn is going as cheap as he is right now in DFS considering what he’s done over the past five weeks and the fact that he saw eight targets in Week 15 (only one fewer than Week 15 team leader Greg Olsen). In seasonal leagues, owners in need of WR help this late in the game or positioned as a heavy underdog facing a Goliath in the finals may want to roll the dice on Ginn, assuming he’s available, and hope lightning strikes again for a deep TD (or two). Finally, for those dynasty owners who still have an opportunity to grab players off of waivers for 2017, Ginn makes for a solid keeper option depending on what round pick or auction value it will cost you.
In Week 16, LeGarrette Blount picked up his 15th rushing TD this season breaking Curtis Martin’s single-season Patriots’ record.
LeGarrette Blount has been a wonderful fantasy surprise this season for owners who took a chance on him following the Dion Lewis ACL setback in the 2016 pre-season. Frequently listed in the mid-to-low 30s in pre-season rankings for RBs in both standard and PPR formats, Blount has been a red-zone monster in 2016 carrying some fantasy teams at the depleted RB position. Even in weeks where Blount has taken a back seat to James White and Dion Lewis, as evidenced in Week 15, Blount has still managed to produce decent floors given his red-zone touches which have turned to TD gold (in fact, he has only had four games in which his fantasy total hasn’t exceeded 10 points). Blount has been a solid option as an RB2 with a safe floor and the potential for breakout weeks, even subsequent to Lewis’ return. In Week 16, Blount faces the Jets’ solid run defense (he put up his lowest fantasy numbers of the season back in Week 12 against the Jets). Despite the matchup, Blount is a hard player to fade in seasonal leagues given the scarcity at the position this late in the season and also given the way the Jets have essentially given up. With a Week 16 FantasyPros ECR of 10 and 13 in standard and PPR leagues, respectively, surviving owners should feel comfortable rolling with Blount in Week 16, again, given his propensity to garner the Patriots’ red-zone carries. Facing the Jets, there should be plenty of red-zone carries, and game flow will also favor the run late in the contest. He could far exceed his ECR despite his lackluster Week 12 performance against this same defense.
Per Pro Football Focus, Andrew Luck recorded the best Week 15 NFL passer rating (146.7) when under pressure.
Many owners opted to fade Andrew Luck in Week 15 given his matchup against the Vikings’ defense which had been one of the top performing fantasy defensive units this season. It was a completely reasonable decision particularly given the fact that the game was also in Minnesota and Luck was coming off a somewhat mediocre two-interception game against the Texans in Week 14. Despite the daunting matchup, Luck was up to task and produced a 250-yard passing game with two TDs on 21 completions (28 attempts). His incredible 146.7 passer rating when under pressure fueled the performance and perhaps reestablished Luck as one of the top-two QBs off the board in 2017 fantasy drafts. Well, that may be an overstatement given what Luck has to work with in Indy – but, it’s certainly worthy of following the last two weeks of the season. In Week 16, Luck will face the Raiders in Oakland. With a FantasyPros ECR of three for Week 16, it’s no surprise he should be started in all formats, especially coming off the Week 15 test in Minneapolis. Colts’ receiving option T.Y Hilton should also be active. Phillip Dorsett makes for an interesting boom-bust contrarian play in DFS (coming off a 1-50-1 game in Week 15) if Donte Moncrief remains sidelined, although we’d like to see more target consistency there to be fully on-board. Despite Luck’s Week 15 success and projected Week 16 success, Erik Swoope and Jack Doyle may have to be faded just based upon their time share situation at the TE position.
All seven of Cameron Brate’s TD receptions this season have come in the red-zone.
Only Jordy Nelson has more red-zone TD receptions than Brate, with 10. Cameron Brate, similar to LeGarrette Blount, has been a red-zone monster in 2016. He has served as a great mid-season pick up for many owners in need of TE help. In Week 15, Brate led the Bucs in receiving with 73 hard-earned yards against a stingy Dallas defense, to go with a red-zone TD and five catches (eight targets). In Week 16, Brate gets to feast on the Saints’ putrid defense. While he didn’t put up great numbers against the Saints in Week 14 (4-47-0), Brate still led the Bucs in receiving in Week 14. Assuming this contest is more offense-based in nature (with the game in the Superdome, there’s little reason to believe it won’t be despite the Week 14 defense-minded game), Brate could be in store for big fantasy production. Seasonal owners would be crazy to bench Brate for this game (Brate currently has a FantasyPros Week 16 ECR of five and four for TEs in standard and PPR leagues, respectively). In DFS formats, Brate has a price tag of $5,600 (FanDuel), which makes him a nice value play in comparison to the price tags for players like Kyle Rudolph ($6,000), Tyler Eifert ($6,700) and Jimmy Graham ($6,200). Brate may be a better play in cash contests, given his moderate price tag; although tournament players may be more inclined to go for the cheaper Hunter Henry ($5,400) facing the Browns than Brate. My money, however, will be on Brate.
Good luck to all players in fantasy championships.
This feature will return after the NFL Wild Card Round with a 2016 season wrap-up to help start preparing you for your 2017 seasonal fantasy drafts.
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Nicky Tapas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicky, check out his archive and follow him @nickytapas71.
