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6 Things We Learned in Week 13

6 Things We Learned in Week 13
Brandin Cooks

Should we be encouraged by Brandin Cooks’ Week 13 performance?

R.C. Fischer discusses Six Fantasy Football Things We Learned From Week 13.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from R.C. head to Fantasy Football Metrics.

After each week of games, I’ll be discussing things that stood out to me or things I believe the football media is shaping the wrong way or has totally overlooked. Here’s my take after watching all the this week’s contests…

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The Death of the ‘Squeaky Wheel Getting the Grease’ Theory

Last week, I, like many fantasy analysts, went nuts about Brandin Cooks not getting a target Week 12. However, I was one of the only ones believing this was a real message about Cooks’ place in the current Saints’ offense. It wasn’t a one-off; it’s been building (reduced snaps and targets) – to an explosion Week 12 with no targets for Cooks.

This week, everyone preached ‘squeaky wheel’ and believed Cooks was going to go off. At a glance, it looks like he kinda ‘got grease’ – seven catches for 73 yards on nine targets. Solid week, right? Wrong. Another message sent. If you thought the zero targets last week was bad – to me, this week was worse (considering all that transpired last week). Cooks didn’t get his first target until 0:42 left in the second quarter. After all that media hysteria last week, you’d figured one of the first few passes would be a bubble screen to Cooks and put this whole thing to rest.

Nope.

His first target was late in the second quarter, and then most of his ‘action’ came in the fourth quarter (five targets) when the game was getting out of hand and working in the two-minute drill (three targets). Something is going on. I could tell from Sean Payton’s flippant responses to the ‘controversy’ last week, and Drew Brees not really having Cooks’ back. Another ‘message sent’ to Cooks, and ‘message sent’ to fantasy owners.

Since opening day, Cooks’s last 11 games, he’s averaging 4.7 catches (6.8 targets) 60.5 yards and has four TDs (a pace for six in a season). In those 11 games, Cooks has just ONE 100+ yard game, and that came from off a 90-yard catch-and-run TD. Cooks has been under 75 yards receiving in nine of his last 11 games. These are not WR1 numbers. They are WR3 numbers. They are ‘We don’t really care about you (Cooks). You’re not our No. 1 WR‘ numbers. He’s not a valued target like other ‘top guys’ are for their teams.

People can claim ‘coverage’ all they want. Cooks is open plenty. A bubble screen is not that difficult to draw up. Brees is not Brock Osweiler bad…he can make things happen with Cooks if he wanted to. Any coach in their right mind builds their game plan around Cooks. Not Sean Payton of the currently 5–7, not-going-to-the-playoffs New Orleans Saints.

The ‘message received’ is for fantasy owners – Cooks is a WR3 who has WR1 talent and WR1 moments but is no more than a really good WR3. Low-end WR2 if you insist. He’s not a WR1. You have to figure, as long as Payton is there, Cooks won’t be a WR1 next season either. What else could you take away from this ‘message’ in Weeks 12–13 (and prior)?

Jeff Fisher…The Broken Wheel That DID Get Grease

When we all saw Jeff Fisher had received a contract extension, I’m sure we all had the same reactions – confusion, befuddlement, bewilderment, anger. I think that probably covers most of us. After I threw my hands up and rolled my eyes at the news, I then thought – Todd Gurley is dead for fantasy…for years.

How is this going to get any better? Does anyone see Fisher’s coaching and output getting better? Does anyone think the Rams’ ownership has a clue and will still fire Fisher if they haven’t already?

What? Do you think Fisher’s going to change? He’s not going to change. Jeff Fisher is going to prove to you how smart he is and dumb the rest of us are by sticking to his playbook – just like how he stuck with the Case Keenum argument for so long. He was going to show us that we don’t know anything about football. He got a contract extension with a resume filled with recent failures, so I guess he’s right.

Gurley is now garbage for fantasy and dynasty – no good the rest of this season, after a bust of a season so far…and it’s likely more of the same in 2017. Arguably, the most talented running back in the game is a worthless fantasy commodity because of the coach. Until Fisher leaves, you can’t have confidence in Gurley for fantasy.

…Fisher and cockroaches will be the only things to survive a nuclear holocaust.

The Lions D/ST Leads The Way…

I’ve been stunned by the 2016 Detroit Lions. I never saw them winning the NFC North. Heck, I didn’t see them having a .500 record this season. They just keep winning. Most of our reactions to their good fortune is thinking they have that great offense and they’ve been pulling out a lot of victories late in games behind Matthew Stafford.

What is not spoken of is how good their defense is.

The Lions’ defense allowed 35 points on opening day to the Colts, and then have been holding a lot of teams down ever since. Look at the points in each game they’ve allowed starting from Week 2: 16-34-17-23-28-17-20-16-19-13-13. In eight of their last 11 games, they’ve held opponents to 20 points or fewer. They are allowing just 16.3 PPG over their past six games. The Lions do not rank highly in any specific defensive category…except they keep winning and holding teams under 20 points. The schedule has been soft, but they just held Drew Brees to 13 points and made him look terrible in the process. In Week 7, they held Washington to 17 points. It’s time to take the Lions’ defense seriously for fantasy.

How about next week versus Matt Barkley? Top 10 ranked for Week 14? Top 5?

How The Buffalo Bills Defense Matters For Fantasy…

Buffalo’s season comes down to next week/Week 14. If they win that game, they then have three very winnable games after that. Buffalo can run the table and get to 10–6, and slip into the playoffs (potentially). The big hurdle is Week 14 – they play the Steelers. Tough matchup.

Why care about Buffalo?

Playing Oakland this week, and with the Steelers after that, more than a few fantasy owners dropped the Bills for better fortunes among the DST crowd this past week. Totally logical. Buffalo sits available on about 50% of leagues’ waivers. For those who are already ushered into a Week 15 playoff game with a Week 14 bye, congrats, and maybe the best DST play of Week 15 for you might be the Bills hosting the Cleveland Browns. One of the league’s top sack teams (Buffalo) all season faces the most sacked team in the NFL (Cleveland). That game will be terrific for a DST play IF the Bills win Week 14 and stay viable in the playoff race. It’s a little worrisome for a letdown if Buffalo loses Week 14 to fall to 6-7 overall.

Paul Turner – Deep Sleeper Wide Receiver

I didn’t think Paul Turner would ever make it to the NFL.

I’ve done scouting for the NFL Draft every year for the past 6+ years – all positions scouted using a Moneyball-inspired mathematical basis for locating players and then combining that with game tape/player study. Producing reports for NFL teams’ use and for a growing number of dynasty GMs (you can see that work annually at College Football Metrics.com). I’ve watched untold hours of tape and pored over reams of statistical data, and I would have bet a lot of money Paul Turner would not make it to the NFL this past summer.

Turner had 6 catches for 80 yards on 8 targets this week, called up from the practice squad just two weeks ago. And I was excited about this arrival performance.

When we scouted him pre-draft, he was a zero/nothing of a prospect based on our analytics. Terrible measurables to translate to the NFL. His best performance numbers at Louisiana Tech in a season – 45 catches for 657 yards and 3 TDs. Who cares? He didn’t make the cut of a player we should even waste time studying film on. And then I saw him play in the 2016 preseason. He was terrific.

At first, in his preseason debut, I thought he was just lucky. Re-watching all his preseason game tape week after week in August – I saw he was a high-effort, muscular/strong, great catcher of the ball at wide receiver…and had better athleticism than his Pro Day would have ever suggested. He led the Eagles in receiving in the 2016 preseason. When I saw him return a punt for a TD in his final preseason game, I reversed any doubt on his athleticism analytics.

Turner was cut before the season started, and no one claimed him so he went on to the practice squad. Now, here he is two weeks removed from being called up to the main roster, leading the Eagles in receiving among their wide receivers in Week 13. Good for him.

I don’t trust Carson Wentz, but if there’s a lot of garbage time ahead (like this game), and Jordan Matthews is out longer (or even if not), keep an eye on Paul Turner. He’s a deep sleeper dynasty prospect, but he might become a viable PPR play now as the Eagles’ season drives off a cliff and they go with a youth movement to finish out. Turner has earned his shot. This week, he delivered.

Fear The Worst On Tyrell Williams

Coming into this week with the torn labrum, I had a great fear that Tyrell Williams would be active and would be used as a decoy. He can run just fine. It’s landing on his shoulder and his catching radius that are the concerns. Since Williams is now the Chargers’ No. 1 wide receiver, it would make sense to use him as a decoy, at a bare minimum, for this last-gasp game for the Chargers.

Well, the Chargers lost. ‘Season over’ from a playoff hope standpoint.

So now does it make sense for the Chargers to shut down Williams? Why put him at further risk of tearing his labrum more? He will be the foundation of the Chargers’ wide receiver group for years to come…if he’s healthy. There is no reason for the Chargers to run him out there Week 14…or maybe it’s Week 15 they throw in the towel. I think his season is going to end too soon and leave us all hanging for fantasy.

I was on the Williams train two years ago. I built the train. I engineered the train. I shared the train’s blueprints with FantasyPros readers in the summer. It’s been a terrific ride for all who jumped onboard. Now, sadly, we need to start planning for bad news ahead. Hopefully not, but I don’t see how they don’t shut him down to protect him. Even worse – he keeps playing as a decoy and having reduced snaps, and he burns you in your lineup.

In this Week 13 game, Williams was a ghost all game and then got a nice bomb TD late. Last week, Williams took over the game and offense, and the future of their WR corps…and then he got hurt in the fourth quarter. This week he barely got looks. It was a stark difference one week made. I think it was the sign that there’s a fairly serious physical problem. The solution – he goes on IR. You have to at least have a Plan-B for it.

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