Will Adrian Peterson be a factor over the remainder of the season?

R.C. Fischer discusses Six Fantasy Football Things We Learned From Week 15.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from R.C. head to Fantasy Football Metrics.

After each week of games, I’ll be discussing things that stood out to me or things I believe the football media is shaping the wrong way or has totally overlooked. Here’s my take after watching all the this week’s contests…

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Who Cares About Adrian Peterson Coming Back? 

I know he’s an all-time great, but he’s been nothing for fantasy in 2016…and why wouldn’t we assume another dud in Week 16 versus Green Bay?

Peterson doesn’t look rusty to me. I don’t think that’s the issue. The problem is systemic on the Vikings…and the problem will haunt him again next week. There are two key issues running the ball for the Vikings:

• The Vikings O-Line is injury-ravaged and bad. It’s been borderline awful all season. They haven’t had a running game all year. Before he got hurt, in Weeks 1 and 2, Peterson had just 50 yards rushing on 31 carries (1.6 yards per carry). The O-Line has gotten worse as the season has gone on.

• Defenses do not respect the Vikings’ passing game, which is the equivalent of what Jeff Fisher was doing in LA/STL. Teams play up for a run-first and dink & dunk pass game. Little room to run for any Vikings RB.

The Indianapolis Colts have been a league-wide joke defending the run game all year. The Vikings posted nine carries for 34 yards against that joke defense this week. The joke is the Vikings’ run game/offense. You can’t count on Peterson being ‘AP’ Week 16 against a much-better-than-Indy Green Bay run defense.

Who Cares About Sammy Watkins Coming Back?

How many of us grabbed Sammy Watkins a few weeks ahead of his return, and then were afraid to use him his first game back and then got burned by him after that. Watkins came back Week 12 and then was supposed to ‘take off’ starting Week 13. Since Week 13, Watkins has averaged 3.7 catches (6.3 targets) for 34.0 yards and 0.33 TDs per game. WR4 numbers?

Week 15, with his best matchup of the year versus the lowly Browns, Watkins posted one catch for 10 yards. Joe Haden had to leave the game with an injury and that didn’t help Watkins. Why would I trust Watkins in the cold next week hosting the Dolphins?

Who Cares About Any Players That Came Back From Injury  This Season?

Sammy Watkins was a flop upon return. Adrian Peterson is likely a dud ahead. Dion Lewis hasn’t lived up to anyone’s hopes and was probably on benches for his decent Week 15 effort. Ameer Abdullah hasn’t come back. Charles Sims has been quiet. Shane Vereen is a bit player. Thomas Rawls has hurt more than helped since he returned.

How many weeks did we wait on any of these guys? How many waiver opportunities were passed up for those who tied up a non-IR spot with them?

Are you still holding onto A.J. Green?

Memo to 2017 self… Be wary of the oh so clever early pickup of seriously hurt guys others ‘forgot’ about. I wish I could forget all these guys from 2016.

Derek Carr Doesn’t Care About Amari Cooper…

One catch on three targets for 28 yards this week?

Did you know Cooper has been under 60 yards receiving for six straight games? How about under 60 yards in seven of his last eight games?

First eight games this season: 6.5 receptions (10.0 targets) and 98.4 yards per game.

Last six games this season: 3.6 receptions (6.2 targets) and 41.8 yards per game.

One of the most gifted WRs in the NFL has become a WR4 for fantasy. What happened?

I don’t know.

The schedule has gotten more difficult as the season has gone on, but one catch against San Diego in a must-win game? Something is amiss. I’m sure Cooper will be a WR1 rank for experts for next week, especially considering the Raiders play indoors at Indy, but I’m not sure you can call Amari a WR1 next week…or a WR2…a debatable WR3.

Who Cares What I Think About Brandin Cooks?

I’ve been chronicling the issues between Brandin Cooks and Drew Brees/Sean Payton for the past couple weeks.  Apparently, the Arizona Cardinals noticed because they decided to put their No. 1 shutdown corner on Michael Thomas and not Brandin Cooks…and then Cooks started having a field day.

After two long TDs early on, Arizona thought it a good idea to finally put Peterson on Cooks…and that shut down Cooks and started to get Michael Thomas involved.

Three things to learn from this Cooks’ event…

• The Cooks issue with the team remains. I believe he will push for a trade in the offseason. There’s a lot of dissension on the Saints. In this week’s game, Mark Ingram was screaming and swearing in Sean Payton’s face on the sidelines in the fourth quarter.

• I love Cooks the player, but I hate him today. He destroyed my fantasy season in a few instances. A big ‘nothing’ when I needed him in leagues the last few weeks. Of course, I bench him Week 15 because of the junk he’s been giving for weeks…then he blows up on my bench for a career-high 186 yards.

• Whichever key WR Patrick Peterson is not covering in a game Week 16-17 is a sweet fantasy play – because Arizona cannot cover anyone on the opposing team if Peterson isn’t on them. First, it was Cooks in this week’s game. Then when Peterson went to Cooks, Thomas popped. Week 16 could be a big-time game for a Seattle WR who is just now rounding back into form; Tyler Lockett. Peterson should be shadowing Doug Baldwin.

You Should Care About Tom Savage (if he’s starting)

When I scouted the QB prospects for the 2014 NFL Draft, I thought Tom Savage was in the argument for the best quarterback talent in the draft (other issues, but arm talent not one of them). We graded (at CollegeFootballMetrics.com) Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Tom Savage as the top QB prospects in their draft (ahead of Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Derek Carr and Logan Thomas…the other QBs drafted ahead of Savage in 2014).

I believed Savage was the best medium-to-deep thrower in that QB class. He has a rifle arm with a smooth, rapid release. He has an uncanny ability to find receivers streaking downfield, and hitting them with lasers in stride.

I mention all this because I’m guessing the mainstream football analysis this week (assuming Savage starts) will be a split between ignoring Savage and focusing on how bad Brock Osweiler is (even though they all endorsed him and loved this signing months ago) and/or a general ‘scoff’ of Savage’s ability. No reasonable football analyst or scout thinks Tom Savage is better than Brock Osweiler…

I think Tom Savage is better than Brock Osweiler. Always have. I’m not saying Savage is the next big star QB, because he’s not worked with the first team as much and Bill O’Brien’s offense is built for a dink-and-dunker, not a downfield sniper. I am warning not to take Savage lightly or dismiss him as a joke.

A pro-Savage view does two things for you for fantasy…

• Don’t jump on the Cincinnati D/ST for Week 16 because Savage is being portrayed as an easy target.

• DeAndre Hopkins works much better with Savage. Hopkins had the most yards (87) he’s had in a game since Week 2 (113) and the second most catches (8) in a game this season working with Savage. Hopkins did all this against top three shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey. Savage makes Hopkins great again.

Forget everything I just wrote if the Texans turn back to Brock Osweiler this week. And if they do, I’ll be in a padded room for the holidays.

Have a great Christmas week, and good luck in your playoff games!

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