Is Jacquizz Rodgers the Buccaneers RB to own moving forward?
Welcome back to another edition of “Analyzing Vegas Odds.” Week 14 is here, leaving us with just four weeks of fantasy football to go.
It has been a fun season, and these last four weeks are shaping up to be very exciting as well. I will be highlighting the four games that I think carry the best fantasy implications for the week.
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New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Total: 51.5; Spread: -3 Tampa Bay
Here we are again, with the New Orleans Saints in the highest projected total of the week. This week will see them going on the road to take on division rivals Tampa Bay. This game has big-time playoff implications, so I expect it to be tightly contested and lots of points to be scored.
Drew Brees had a horrible game last week at home against the Detroit Lions, and this is another opportunity for him to get back on track. The Bucs’ defense has improved somewhat throughout the year, and Brees has always been better at home than on the road, but I like the idea of using him this week in tournaments.
The running game isn’t one that I am too excited about using here. Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower should continue to split time on the field, and it does remove a lot of the shine from both.
Ingram did significantly out snap Hightower last week, so that is worth noting. It is certainly possible for the Saints to fall behind again, which would shift the focus onto the passing game.
The Saints receivers are a tough group to predict. Brandin Cooks had a lot of targets last week but didn’t do too much with them. He also has been significantly better at home than on the road, so there’s that.
Willie Snead is an inconsistent receiver, but I could see this being a game that they will need to use him. Michael Thomas is currently questionable, but he is the one receiver Brees looks to consistently, so if he can go, he should be on your radar. Coby Fleener is a colossal bust.
This looks like it could be a good spot for Jameis Winston for a few reasons. First, this team loves to pass the ball. Second, the running back situation isn’t very good right now, which we’ll discuss in a second.
Quarterbacks haven’t done very well against New Orleans this year in terms of fantasy points, but I think this is a situation I could see being an exception. Doug Martin bent in half last week, giving way in the second half to Jacquizz Rodgers. Offensive Coordinator Dirk Koetter expressed that he wasn’t satisfied with how the running game has looked and said that Rodgers is likely to see more involvement, leaving both he and Martin’s fantasy outlook pretty unclear.
Mike Evans is the guy you would want here. He should be able to destroy this Saints’ defense, and even though he’s costly, he is a good bet. The Bucs’ receivers outside of that are an island of misfit toys. Cameron Brate is an excellent tight end option, and his price hasn’t caught up to him on daily fantasy sites.
San Diego Chargers @ Carolina Panthers – Total: 48.5; Spread: -1.5 Carolina
This is a game between two teams that are playing for nothing but pride as their seasons are officially over. It should still be a good game nonetheless, as least for fantasy implications.
Philip Rivers and the passing game are in a very good position here, as the Panthers’ secondary have checked out. They looked awful on Sunday night against Seattle, and this is a great spot for Rivers and his options.
The Panthers run defense hasn’t been bad, but I could see the Chargers getting up in this game and using Gordon to run the clock down. Either way, Gordon is so involved in what this team does that he should be a great option again this week, as he has been all year.
For me, there are only two options that stick out in terms of receivers: Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman. Travis Benjamin has been a giant disappointment this year, but the others have been pretty decent. The upside here is 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown, but it is tough to pick between the two.
I think I’d rather go with Williams myself. This could also be a good bounce back spot for Antonio Gates after several underwhelming weeks.
I would hope that Cam Newton could put together some good fantasy performance before the year is out because he feels like another disappointment. He’s priced for his upside, which will keep players off of him, setting him up to be a nice tournament play.
I like Jonathan Stewart a lot this week. He is underpriced throughout the industry, and the Chargers have been really bad this year with running backs. I think people are waiting for Stewart to slow down, but I don’t expect him to right now.
The receiving situation in Carolina is a mess at this point. Kelvin Benjamin has been forgettable after a hot start to the season. Ted Ginn Jr. has been the guy over the last three weeks, and he makes for a nice tournament play here.
I’m not completing writing off Benjamin yet, but for the price, I’d rather roll with Ginn. Greg Olsen is bound to break out of his funk at some point, so why not this week?
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants – Total: 47.5; Spread: -3 Dallas
The only loss on the Dallas Cowboys record this year belongs to the New York Giants, so you know this is a major revenge game. I am expecting a big time game here from a number of players.
Dak Prescott has probably been the best surprise this year, and I expect him to have a nice game here. I think we’ll see more out of the passing game, making him a nice option in all formats, especially at his price.
Ezekiel Elliott is someone who should be on your radar every week, and this is no different. The Giants haven’t been bad against the run, but this is the best runner in the league this year, so I think an exception can be made.
Dez Bryant being back and healthy has been a boon to the option on this team, and I expect him to be leaned on heavily here. Two guys who have the worst games of their year should also be in play here, with both Cole Beasley and Jason Witten finding roles to help the Cowboys beat the Giants this week.
Eli Manning is never anyone’s favorite option to use, but with absolutely no running game altogether, you’d assume that he would have to put up a big game for the Giants to win. I think the Cowboys are still susceptible to the pass, so he’s a great tournament option this week.
Neither Rashad Jennings or Paul Perkins are worth looking into here, as the Giants can’t get the running game going, and I don’t expect it to happen this week.
Odell Beckham Jr. is one of my favorite plays this week, as I think he will find ways to beat this defense time and time again. Sterling Shepard is also in play here if you want to save some money. I don’t think you should, though, as I could see Beckham having one of his biggest games of the season this weekend.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills – Total: 47; Spread: -2 Pittsburgh
The last game we will break down this week is the game between the Steelers and Bills, who both have playoff hopes alive going into this game. There are some situations to monitor here, not so much from the injury perspective, but from other perspectives.
Ben Roethlisberger has been pretty brutal on the road throughout this career, and 2016 has been no different, aside from the Thanksgiving game against the Colts. He’s not really on my radar this week, as I think there are better options in virtually every respect.
The Bills aren’t bad at all against the run, but Le’Veon Bell is matchup proof. He may not end up with a ton of rushing yards, but his involvement in the passing game is what makes him such an indispensable player in daily fantasy. The price is up there, but so is the floor.
Antonio Brown could very well go overlooked this week with Mike Evans, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. in much better matchups, making him an excellent option for tournaments. He is also matchup proof, but he goes with Roethlisberger, so if he struggles, he will be too. After his monster game last weekend, I would expect Ladarius Green to have high ownership, but he could end up with another good game here.
Tyrod Taylor remains dirt cheap throughout the industry, but he has been pretty solid this year, so on a point per dollar basis, he is a top play. I don’t think his upside is huge here, but he should be safe in cash game formats.
I like LeSean McCoy a lot this week, and I could very well see him going off in this game. He’s adapted well to Buffalo’s offense, and he has been their top option all around all year.
Nothing should change with that this week. It’s also worth noting that it should be cold and snowy in Buffalo this week, and the running game could be relied upon even more.
The Bills’ receiving options are nothing more than tournament options. Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin are cheap and offer some upside if they can reel in the targets they get. Sammy Watkins saw nine targets last week, and if he can see the same volume this week, he could end up being a sneaky target this week in daily formats at his price.
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Nicholas Volinchak is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicholas, follow him @researchandwin. You can find more of Nicholas’ football work at Research Fantasy.
