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DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 16

DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 16
DeAndre Hopkins

Will DeAndre Hopkins reemerge thanks to a new QB?

Hey! Yeah, you! Just want to make sure you are paying attention. Football starts Saturday this week, not Sunday. Make sure to get your lineups set before then. I know, you are all pros and huge football fans, but with Christmas Eve on the same day, details can slip the forefront of our minds and boom, your lineup is not set. This goes for both DFS and your yearly, championship week. Yes, I am assuming you are all in the Championship game. Me?

Nope, did not make a single one. I’m playing for third in one of my two money leagues, but it is not looking good. Losing A.J. Green and Melvin Gordon derailed my championship dreams!

Now that you are aware you need to set your lineups early, here are the value plays I like this week.

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Quarterback

Cam Newton (CAR): $6,600 vs. ATL
I am not sure, but I think this might be the first time that I consider playing Newton. This has to be the first time I’m recommending him as a value play. His price has dropped due to some bad performances and inconsistent play form his wide receivers. However, over his last four weeks, Newton has put up two games over 22 DraftKings points. His other two games were only 12, but he has a great matchup. His floor is 2.5x value which is okay for cash (I prefer 3x), but he can obviously hit 4x value too. In Week 4, Newton put up 15.6 DraftKings points against the Falcons. I think he could hit closer to 20 this week. Atlanta is 26th in DVOA against the pass and has allowed the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position this season. (Note: They have given up only the 17th most points to the position over the last five weeks, but I still like this play)

Notable mentions:

Running Back

Some people may want to look at Todd Gurley this week because the Rams are playing the 49ers. Personally I am staying away from him, but I am obligated to mention him due to his matchup.

Frank Gore (IND): $4,800 @ OAK
What isn’t there to like about Gore? He has been very consistent for DFS players this season. He had a couple bad games, but for his price, he makes a great pairing with one of the high-price guys. Gore has a great matchup and is coming off a solid game where he saw 26 carries. If not for two touchdowns being vultured by Robert Turbin, Gore would have hit nearly 7x value. If Gore saw just one of those touchdowns he would have still hit 5.5x value, and even without them he hit over 4x value. Indianapolis is facing the Raiders this week and Oakland has already locked up a playoff spot. Both teams are still fighting for their division, though, which means I expect Gore to play his normal role. Oakland is 21st in DVOA against the rush and has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to the position over the last five weeks. At this price, he will be one of my go-to guys to pair with the elite RBs.

Notable mentions:

Wide Receiver

There are many value plays here…these are the guys I like most.

DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): $5,200 vs. CIN
So this may be reactionary coming off of a game where Hopkins saw 17 targets, but I just do not care. I have to have exposure to him now that Brock Osweiler is sitting out. Hopkins has the talent to hit 4x value at this price and I like him for a solid 3x value with Tom Savage forcing targets his way. The matchup is not great. I am not saying he is a lock for every lineup. Cincinnati is ranked 18th in pass DVOA and 12th in pass DVOA to the No. 1 receiver. If Hopkins sees 10-plus targets he should be a good play though.

Notable mentions:

Tight End

Eric Ebron (DET): $3,600 @ DAL
Ebron has been fairly consistent. He has not put up great numbers, but he has been a serviceable DFS option. He has hit seven or more DraftKings points in his last three games. Other than a zero, he hit double-digits in the three games prior too. He faces the Cowboys who are ranked 30th in DVOA against the tight end. Detroit is fighting for a playoff spot and if Theo Riddick is out again, Ebron could be heavily relied upon.

Notable mentions:

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Rob Schwarz, Jr. is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Rob, check out his archive. You may also read his work on Fantasy LifeFLAFFLhouse and House Money Fantasy or you can follow him on Twitter @ChiSportsnut25

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