T.J. Yeldon’s (pictured) value this week is largely dependent upon the health of RB teammate Chris Ivory
Welcome to Week 15 of the 2016 NFL season. In the fantasy football world, it is the second round of the fantasy playoffs, and the top two seeds are coming off of their bye. For those who qualify, congratulations. For the eliminated teams playing for a consolation prize, shoot for the sky. You’re likely playing for points. Therefore, the upside options, who normally are too risky to start, are now in play.
For those who packed it in for the season, don’t. Now is the time to pay attention to the top teams in your league. What are they doing right? Why are they on top? Study them. Take it all in for the rest of the way and prepare for 2017.
Last week, Le’Veon Bell exploded for 47.8 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. However, his teammates and usually dependable studs, Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, combined for 10.4 points and likely cost their fantasy owners their season. And how about Bilal Powell coming to life with 29.9 points in the wake of Matt Forte’s knee injury.
He awarded his fantasy owners who held on to him through a disappointing year and is an RB2 this week if Forte is out. One more honorable mention is the Atlanta Falcons D/ST.
They placed fifth in fantasy scoring for Week 14 with 26.0 points and could have lifted a fantasy squad to the next round of the playoffs. The parody continues. Now, let’s take a look at the upcoming slate of games for Week 15 and sort out whos in and whos out of your lineups in this week’s edition of Fantasy Football’s Under the Radar Matchup Analysis.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday night)
In – Doug Baldwin (WR – SEA)
The Rams are in shambles. They fired their head coach, Jeff Fisher, Monday and are showing no signs of improvement. Their defense, which is usually their strong suit, is ranked sixth in fantasy production allowed to opposing wideouts and are the right matchup for Baldwin to end his four-game touchdown drought. Although Los Angeles has played Seattle tough of late, that was Fisher’s Rams. Start Baldwin in Week 15 as he is poised to go off and torch the Rams’ secondary.
Out – Todd Gurley (RB – LA)
Seattle’s defense is ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and are playing at home this week to boot. After getting embarrassed and blown out in Green Bay last week, the Seahawks are primed to bounce back with a stout defensive performance facing one of the NFL’s most horrendous offensive units. With that being said, Gurley is a tremendous risk for his fantasy owners to start in the second round of the playoffs. Despite coming off of a 14.3 fantasy point performance last Sunday against Atlanta, Gurley is in the sit column for Week 15.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (Saturday night)
In – Bilal Powell (RB – NYJ)
Since Matt Forte “day-to-day” with a knee injury suffered last Sunday against San Francisco, Powell is in line for an expanded workload this week if the former is ruled out. Powell, who finished Week 14 with 145 yards and two touchdowns on the ground and five receptions for 34 yards as a receiver, is in the RB2 conversation Saturday night versus Miami. The Dolphins’ defense presents a tough matchup – they are ranked 19th in fantasy production allowed to opposing RBs – but Powell is on track to start and receive the bulk of touches, which makes for another solid outing in Week 15.
In – Dion Sims (TE – MIA)
Since Week 12, Sims is ranked 10th in fantasy production among tight ends with 22.1 points. He is making a serious case to enter 2017 as the starter – even if Jordan Cameron returns – as he scored two touchdowns in the past three games and is on the rise. With Matt Moore slated to start while Ryan Tannehill is sidelined with a knee injury, Sims could see an uptick in his target share and will likely serve as the lead check-down option for the backup signal caller. Facing a Jets’ defense ranked 12th in fantasy points allowed to opposing TEs, Sims is a sneaky TE2 streamer for Week 15.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills
In – Mike Gillislee (RB – BUF)
Last week, Gillislee was named Buffalo’s primary short-yardage back. However, he failed to reach the end zone in the game following the announcement against the Raiders. Facing a Browns’ defense ranked No. 2 in fantasy production allowed to opposing RBs, the touchdown-vulture is poised to make his way across the goal line for the seventh time in eight games. He is a touchdown-reliant flex option for Week 15 in an uber favorable matchup.
In – Sammy Watkins (WR – BUF)
Watkins scored his first touchdown of the year last week and is in line for a huge game Sunday versus the Browns. Cleveland’s defense is among the league’s worst defending the pass and Watkins is likely to exploit their secondary with his home run hitting, big play ability. He is in the mid-range WR2 tier for Week 15 whose upside is in line with top 10 receiving numbers.
Detroit Lions at New York Giants
In – Eric Ebron (TE – DET)
Could this be the game Ebron finally finds the end zone for the first time since Week 1? It jut might be. He is heading into a plus matchup facing a Giants defense ranked 13th in fantasy points allowed to opposing TEs and is more involved in Detroit’s passing attack since putting up a goose egg on Thanksgiving. He is coming off of back-to-back four reception games and is a low-end TE1 for Week 15 with moderate upside.
In – Eli Manning (QB – NYG)
Manning only produced 5.5 points for his fantasy owners in last Sunday night’s defensive battle against Dallas. However, he will bounce back this week facing a Lions defense ranked seventh in fantasy production allowed to opposing QBs. In his last home game versus Detroit, Manning posted a 177-2-0 stat line back in 2010. He will look to improve on those numbers and get New York’s passing attack on course for a late-season playoff push in Sunday’s must-win matchup. Start Manning with confidence in Week 15.
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens
In – Kenneth Dixon (RB – BAL)
Dixon scored 14.1 fantasy points in Week 14 and is averaging 9.9 FPPG in his past three. He out-touched starter Terrance West last week against New England and is slowly emerging as the top running back on the Ravens. Facing an Eagles’ defense that is not as stingy on the road as it is at home, Dixon is in the lower RB2 tier for Sunday afternoon’s matchup. He is a fantasy starter for Week 15, especially in PPR scoring formats – he’s collected 15 targets in his last two games.
Out – Ryan Mathews (RB – PHI)
Mathews only scored 6.0 fantasy points last week versus Washington and will have a tough time scraping together a double-digit total against a stout Ravens’ defense Sunday. They are ranked 32nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs and are only conceding an average of 75.5 YPG on the ground in 2016. With Wendell Smallwood out for the year with a knee injury and Darren Sproles in the concussion protocol, Mathews is in line for a heavy workload. However, he remains a risky, touchdown-dependent fantasy option for Week 15 despite his likely increase in touches.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
In – Jeremy Hill (RB – CIN)
Hill will attempt to follow up last week’s monster (for him) 20.2 fantasy point performance Sunday against Pittsburgh, whose defense is ranked fifth in fantasy production allowed top opposing rushers. He has received 53 touches in his past two games and has found the end zone in both as well. With A.J. Green expected to return, the pressure will be taken off of Hill as the defense must honor the pass and remove the extra man out of the box.
In that scenario, plus, the workload he has garnered of late, Hill is in line for another big afternoon. He may not exceed 20 fantasy points again, but scoring in the teens is not too far fetched. Hill is a middling RB2 with touchdown upside for Week 15.
Out – Andy Dalton (QB – CIN)
Historically, Dalton has struggled against the Steelers. In 11 career games, he has compiled a 2,400-13-10 stat line and is unlikely to reach 20 fantasy points this week facing a Steelers’ team that is on a playoff surge. Pittsburgh’s defense is ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing signal callers and will look to stifle Dalton Sunday, despite the expected return of A.J. Green. Dalton should ride the bench in Week 15 as he is not a trustable fantasy option in this spot.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
In – Kyle Rudolph (TE – MIN)
Rudolph is heading into a plus matchup Sunday against Indianapolis, whose defense is ranked 11th in fantasy production allowed to opposing TEs. He has averaged 7.6 FPPG since Week 12 and is ranked eighth in fantasy scoring at his position during that span with 22.9 points.
In his only other game played versus the Colts, Rudolph has found the end zone. He is poised to do the same this week as he is the most reliable target for Sam Bradford, who is not named Stefon Diggs. Rudolph is an upper-tier TE2 for Week 15.
Out – Frank Gore (RB – IND)
Last week, Gore continued to impress in 2016 scoring his eighth total touchdown of the year. However, the ageless wonder is a huge risk for his fantasy owners Sunday facing a Vikings defense ranked 24th in fantasy production allowed to opposing RBs. He has been touchdown and reception dependent all season long – and he’s delivered more times than not – but he is likely to be bottled up by Minnesota as they are barely hanging on in the NFC playoff race and must lean on their defense to remain in contention. Gore is not a trustable fantasy option for Week 15. Sit him.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
In – Jordan Howard (RB – CHI)
Howard is averaging 17.8 FPPG since Week 12 and is the only safe fantasy option in Chicago. Last week versus a stingy Lions run defense, Howard accumulated 11.0 fantasy points. He is likely to score in the double digits again Sunday facing the Packers, whose defense allows an average of 16.2 FPPG to the running back position. Howard is a middling RB2 for Week 15, who can collect fantasy points both as a rusher and as a receiver out of the backfield.
Out – James Starks (RB – GB)
In his past two games, Starks has only totaled six touches for four yards. Despite being listed as Green Bay’s No. 1 back, he clearly is not in the conversation for fantasy football purposes. With Ty Montgomery now officially classified as the Packers’ No. 2 back on the depth chart, Starks’ fantasy value is nonexistent as he will continue to cede the workload to the converted wideout. Starks is nowhere near the fantasy radar for Week 15 and moving forward.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
In – Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
Hill is ranked 11th in fantasy scoring among wideouts since Week 12 with 35.5 points. He is entering a favorable matchup versus the Titans Sunday whose defense is ranked third in fantasy production allowed to opposing WRs and should once again stand out amidst Kansas City’s sub-par receiving corps. He is currently third on the team in targets with 58 – one behind Jeremy Maclin’s 59 – and is primed to continue to see opportunities come his way as a receiver, rusher and returner. Hill is a playmaker who could take it to the house anytime he touches the ball and is a startable WR3/flex option for Week 15.
In – Rishard Matthews (WR – TEN)
Matthews has been one of the most fruitful sleepers in fantasy football this year, but he was contained last week by Denver’s talented secondary. He scored 2.6 fantasy points on his lone 26-yard reception in the Week 14 matchup and will attempt to get back on track Sunday against Kansas City. Their defense is ranked sixth in fantasy production allowed to opposing WRs and have given up as many big plays as they made. In a favorable Week 15 matchup, Matthews is in the mid-range WR2 tier whose upside runs in line with WR1 production.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
In – T.J. Yeldon (RB – JAC)
If you’re in a bind at the running back position and are still in the fantasy playoffs (like I am), Yeldon is not a terrible option to consider for Week 15. He is coming off of back-to-back games in which he produced at least 8.6 fantasy points in standard scoring systems and is entering a plus matchup versus Houston.
The Texans’ defense is ranked 13th in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs and could allow Yeldon to extend that streak, especially if Chris Ivory is inactive for the third string game with a hamstring injury. Yeldon is an opportunity-dependent option for Week 15 who is the workhorse of his backfield.
Out – DeAndre Hopkins (WR – HOU)
For the second round of the fantasy playoffs, Hopkins just can not be trusted. He put up a 2-33-0 dud last week and is heading into a lousy matchup facing a Jaguars’ defense ranked 28th in fantasy production allowed to opposing WRs. Despite posting 32 receptions for 423 yards and two touchdowns in his career versus Jacksonville, Hopkins is not a reliable fantasy option for Week 15.
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
Out – J.J. Nelson (WR – ARI)
Nelson has scored three touchdowns in his past two games on only three touches. However, that freak stint of production is unlikely to continue without an increase in his opportunity share. Despite entering a solid matchup facing an improving Saints’ defense ranked 18th in fantasy production allowed to opposing WRs, Nelson is a risky fantasy option for Week 15. Sit him, but for those fantasy owners who are inclined to insert him into starting lineups, it should be done so with tempered expectations.
Out – Tim Hightower (RB – NO)
Hightower has been a hit or miss for his fantasy owners in 2016 splitting time with starter Mark Ingram. In his past two games, he’s only touched the ball a total of 10 times for 58 yards and will have difficulty getting back on track facing the Cardinals Sunday. Their defense is ranked 31st in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs and are not the get-right opponent that Hightower is seeking. Bench him in Week 15.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
In – Colin Kaepernick (QB – SF)
Kaepernick has cooled down over his past two games totaling only 13.8 fantasy points. The dual-threat signal caller is primed to pick up his pace, however, facing Atlanta’s defense ranked No. 1 in fantasy production allowed to opposing QBs. With the Falcons’ defense likely to key in on shutting down a hot Carols Hyde, the passing and running lanes will open up for Kaepernick in Week 15. Start him.
In – Taylor Gabriel (WR – ATL)
Whether Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu are healthy and playing or their not, Gabriel remains on the fantasy radar. He is coming off of a 14.2 point performance last week for his fantasy owners and will continue to reward them for snagging him off waivers earlier in the year in Sunday’s plus matchup against the 49ers.
Their defense is ranked No. 1 in fantasy production allowed to opposing WRs and allow players to go off on a whim. Proceed to roll with Gabriel until he gives you a reason not to.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Out – Malcolm Mitchell (WR – NE)
Mitchell has been one of fantasy football’s hottest wide receivers since Week 11. In that four-game span, he is ranked sixth in fantasy scoring among wideouts with 50.3 points. However, all of his matchups have been against questionable defensive secondaries, including the Ravens last week.
Mitchell is heading into his toughest matchup to date Sunday facing the Broncos, whose defense is ranked 32nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts. In the second round of the fantasy playoffs, Mitchell is a dangerous option as he is likely to be held in check by Denver’s outstanding defense.
Out – Justin Forsett (RB – DEN)
Denver’s rushing attack has been in disarray since losing C.J. Anderson to a knee injury earlier in the year. It won’t pick up with the addition of Forsett, who is entering his second game with the team Sunday versus New England. Last week, Forsett out-touched Devontae Booker 9-to-5, but he only turned them into 35 total yards of offense.
New England’s defense is well-balanced and playing well in 2016 and will shut down Denver’s running game in their upcoming matchup. Avoid Forsett and Booker Sunday as they are both touchdown-dependent options in Week 15.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers
In – Kenneth Farrow (RB – SD)
With Melvin Gordon dealing with knee and hip injuries, his playing status for Sunday’s contest versus Oakland is in question. In his absence, the Chargers are expected to split the running back workload between Farrow and Ronnie Hillman. Farrow received 22 touches for 78 total yards in relief of Gordon last week and could be the starter if the latter is ruled out for Sunday’s matchup.
Although Farrow is a huge risk for fantasy owners, he is more trustworthy than Hillman and his familiarity with the offense should keep the opportunities flowing his way. Start Farrow with tempered expectations in Week 15 (if Gordon is out). However, he does garner reasonable upside facing a Raiders’ defense ranked fourth in fantasy production allowed to opposing RBs.
In – Tyrell Williams (WR – SD)
In his last (and only) career game against Oakland in Week 5, Williams produced a 5-117-1 stat line. As the Raiders’ defense is susceptible to the pass, Williams could be in store for another solid afternoon on Sunday.
He leads the team in targets with 94 and will continue to see the majority of the opportunities trend his direction as he’s Philip Rivers‘ most reliable receiving option since losing Keenen Allen in the season opener. Williams is a startable WR2 for Week 15.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday night)
Out – Doug Martin (RB – TB)
Martin has scored a touchdown in two consecutive games and will need to make it three-straight to earn fantasy relevance Sunday night against Dallas. Since his return from a hamstring injury in Week 10, Martin is only averaging 2.9 YPC.
He will have a rough time gaining plus yardage versus a Cowboys defense that is ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. He is a touchdown-dependent RB2 for Week 15 who could lose touches to backup Charles Sims. Fantasy owners beware.
Out – Jason Witten (TE – DAL)
Since Week 11, Witten is only averaging 3.6 FPPG and is a risky option for his fantasy owners Sunday night versus Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers defense has played well in recent weeks and is only allowing 7.0 FPPG to opposing TEs in 2016.
Although he maintains minimal value in PPR scoring formats, Witten is nothing but a reach TE2 for Week 15. Sit him as there are more favorable streaming options on waivers that include Will Tye and Jared Cook.
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins
In – DeSean Jackson (WR – WAS)
Jackson has caught three touchdowns in his last four games and is entering a favorable Monday night matchup against a Panthers defense ranked fifth in fantasy production allowed to opposing WRs. He is a career big-play threat and appears to have found his jets in recent weeks as two of his past three scores have gone for at least 67 yards. Jackson is boom or bust fantasy option for Week 15 who is poised to exploit Carolina’s depleted secondary.
In – Jonathan Stewart (RB – CAR)
Since Week 11, Stewart is ranked 10th in fantasy scoring among RBs with 47.4 points and an 11.9 FPPG average. He has scored four touchdowns during that four-game span and should keep that going Monday night in Washington.
The Redskins’ defense is ranked eighth in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs and should enable Stewart to make it five scores in five games. Start him in the RB2/flex spot in Week 15.
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Anthony Cervino is a primary contributor for FantasyPros and a lead NFL News Desk correspondent. To read more from Anthony, visit his archive or follow him on Twitter @theRealNFLguru. Feel free to tweet or message him with any NFL or fantasy-related questions. Anthony will always give you his best.
