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Fantasy Impact: Yankees Sign Matt Holliday

Fantasy Impact: Yankees Sign Matt Holliday
Matt Holliday

Matt Holliday

Although it is not the splash Yankee fans are accustomed to, the signing of Matt Holliday seems to fit the plan as New York plots its future with Bryce Harper and Manny Machado two years from free agency. In an effort to avoid spending too much on veterans now, it seems Brian Cashman is ready to compete within a salary range which will not inhibit the team from making moves down the road.

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Spurning Edwin Encarnacion is a part of this process. Instead, New York signed another first base and outfield option in Matt Holliday to a one-year deal. On the surface, this seems like it will not have much impact upon the fantasy world as Holliday has only played 183 games the past two seasons. But, he adds a powerful right-handed bat to the lineup and his ability to play multiple positions makes him attractive to the team along with filling in at designated hitter as his outfield defense leaves much to be desired.

The extra at-bats Holliday can accrue at designated hitter should also allow him to stay in the lineup more often than in the National League where he has played since 2004 except for a 93-game stint with Oakland in 2009. Taking a look at his last three years, it would appear Holliday is in decline. However, there are some interesting tidbits within his underlying statistics which could provide success for fantasy in the year ahead.

As Mike Petriello of MLB.com noted in a tweet about Holliday, he finished last year fourth out of 247 hitters with at least 200 batted balls in play with 42.5 percent of his hits having an exit velocity of 100 MPH or higher. Holliday finished in the top-10 in this category with players such as Nelson Cruz, Miguel Cabrera, Giancarlo Stanton and Mark Trumbo. This correlates with his return to a 38.5 hard contact rate on Fangraphs as well, up from 33.3 percent in 2015. Injuries have affected his production in the last three years, but there is hope for a rebound. Here is Holliday’s exit velocity chart courtesy of BaseballSavant.com from 2016:

matt-holliday-exit-velo-chart

Holliday had 20 home runs in 110 games last season. Even with his rough 2015, has averaged a home run every 26.9 at-bats in the last three years. Last year, this number dropped to a home run every 19.1 at-bats. Another notable split was the stark contrast between his home and road splits in 2016:

  • Matt Holliday in St. Louis 2016: .203/.288/.382; 81 wRC+, OPS .669
  • Matt Holliday on road in 2016: .297/.363/.554; 143 wRC+, OPS .917

Signing with the Yankees should already imply better statistics for the year ahead based upon the ballpark advantage. This is punctuated with the home and road disparity Holliday had in his last year as a Cardinal. With this in mind, here is Holliday’s spray chart from last year with Yankee Stadium as the backdrop:

matt-holliday-spray-chart-at-yankee-stadium

Fantasy owners should be encouraged to see Holliday will not only experience an advantage by playing in Yankee Stadium, but he is able to take advantage of the short porch in right field as he drives the ball well to the opposite field. Early Steamer projections have Holliday in line for 130 games with 74 runs, 23 home runs, 79 RBI, two stolen bases and a .271/.357/.469 slash line. With the home and road splits factored in along with the ballpark bump, Holliday could reach this as long as he stays healthy in 2017. In fact, this serves as a nice baseline of fantasy value.

Many will look at Holliday as past his prime, which is true. But his career OBP of .382 will be a welcome asset in the Yankees lineup and his OBP the last three years of .360 only supports this skill set. There has been some variance in his slugging, but it rebounded to .461 last season and was .554 on the road. Once again, there is room for his power to grow in 2017 based upon the ballpark.

Drafting Holliday is not really exciting but as the rounds go by, his name and chance for 25 home runs makes him more appealing. In fact, with health and 450 or more at-bats, 25 home runs and 80 or more RBI are well within reach. One of the fallacies of fantasy baseball is trying to identify who will break out to win. However, guys like Holliday who have produced in the past with strong underlying indicators are the ones who help push teams over the top.

Tell others he is not aging well and his injuries cloud his outlook then stash him late along with the 143 weighted runs created plus on the road last year with an OPS over .900. Holliday should be a nice late-round home run and RBI asset for the owner who takes the chance as a low-risk option. If his average returns to a mid-.280s level and he can score 70 or more runs, it is just icing on the cake.

Statistical Credits: Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, BaseballSavant.com, MLB.com

Greg Jewett is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Greg, check out his archive and follow him @gjewett9.

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