Can Carlos Hyde keep it rolling in a favorable Week 15 matchup?
What a week it could have been is something that DFS players say a lot. I had all the makings of multiple good lineups except for one bad play. My lineups consisted mostly of Emmanuel Sanders, T.Y. Hilton, Desean Jackson, Le’Veon Bell and Tyler Eifert. I also had more exposure to the San Diego Chargers defense than any other defense on the slate. Going into the third quarter of the Chargers @ Panthers game is when one of the most gut-wrenching things happened to me in all of DFS!
The Chargers defense was getting destroyed by the dysfunctional Carolina Panthers defense. I was resigned to my fate of negative points as the Panthers approached the red zone once again. In the 3rd quarter, San Diego only had one fantasy point but ended up turning it around by getting a few sacks and that’s when something amazing happened! A San Diego Chargers pick-six flashed on screen, and I went from three top five hundred lineups to three lineups in the top 14 of a 144,000 person tournament! I hadn’t danced in years but in that moment I somehow found the inspiration to do so. With where I was at now I had a legitimate chance to end up with three winning lineups in a massive tournament.
Then, just like that, it was called back after “further review.” In a span of five minutes, I went from having a monster weekend to a decently profitable one. It just wasn’t meant to be, but since my Thanksgiving week meltdown I have bounced back. In DFS, it’s extremely important to always look at the positive side of things. That doesn’t mean you should naively believe everything will ALWAYS work out because it won’t. It just means you shouldn’t wallow in self-pity or beat yourself up if you miss a massive weekend by one or two plays.
Now, who should we fade this week?
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Matt Ryan (ATL) $8,500 vs San Francisco 49ers
Can I talk you into a Matt Ryan fade? It’s a tough sell, but hear me out. The 49ers are historically bad against running backs from a fantasy football perspective. They have given up 1,935 rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns and there are still three games left! Ryan could surely throw a few touchdown passes to Freeman or Coleman, right? They have given up only 51 receptions, 431 yards and three receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs. In comparison, the Atlanta Falcons have given up 97 receptions, 801 yards and five touchdowns. Ryan won’t have to throw for 300 yards or three touchdowns. This is a 200 yard 2+ touchdown rushing performance in the waiting by the Falcons’ backfield.
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) $8,500 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The running position, in my opinion, has made a huge comeback in the NFL. At one point it was considered a minor piece in an NFL offense as running back contracts plummeted. With Elliott, David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell they are reminding us that elite RB talent is not only rare but can define your team. Unfortunately for Elliot, he gets an improving Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. Both of these teams play a pace down style on offense which means less plays to go around for Elliott. The Buccaneers are middle of the road against the run but have only given up eight touchdowns on the ground and 10 total to the position. In comparison, the Chargers, Bills, Saints, Redskins, Browns and 49ers have given up 13 rushing touchdowns or more!
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) $8,600 vs Detroit Lions
This is the second week I have Odell Beckham Jr. listed in my fades. It may seem a bit excessive, but as I have mentioned in previous articles, fades can last weeks. Beckham Jr. caught a late touchdown but his 17 fantasy points weren’t enough to justify his salary last week. This week, he gets the Detroit Lions and Darius Slay. This game has a very awkward 41.5 over/under which is weird considering the firepower each of these teams has on offense. This could be due to some weather concerns or that both defenses have improved since early season. Whatever the reason, Odell isn’t in play as Slay is expected to shadow him throughout the game.
Tyler Eifert (CIN) $7,200 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Eifert is an elite weapon at the tight end position. With Gronkowski on IR, you could easily argue at this time that Eifert is the best in the league! However, the Bengals could get A.J. Green back this week and the Steelers are ranked 15th against tight ends. What worries me is that they have only allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends which negates one of the biggest advantages Eifert has. Less targets and a lower chance of touchdowns means that Eifert is way too expensive for what he could do.
Atlanta Falcons $4,900 vs San Francisco 49ers
The Rams are a dumpster fire organization that had a coach in Jeff Fisher fanning the flames uncontrollably. It’s easy to kick a man when he’s down, but Fisher did nothing but flounder in mediocrity for five years with the Rams. This past Sunday was the final nail in the coffin. While the Falcons defense does have a pass rush, they still have holes at multiple levels. I expect this to be an extremely high scoring affair with the Falcons getting scored on and potentially posting negative points. Don’t chase last week’s points. Kaepernick will no doubt turn the ball over, but the 49ers will also score multiple touchdowns against the Falcons Swiss cheese defense.
Alternate Plays
Colin Kaepernick (SF) $7,500 @ Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons defense won people a lot of money this past weekend by destroying the Rams and ending Jeff Fisher’s career. The Rams are a completely dysfunctional team with nothing to play for. You could argue that the 49ers aren’t too far behind, but I still think that Kaepernick is a good football player. Whether or not he puts it all together remains to be seen. What I do know is that the Falcons defense is statistically still one of the worst and that Kaepernick has the biggest upside of any quarterback playing this Sunday. Fade the public perception that the Falcons defense has improved enough where they warrant a start against the 49ers.
Carlos Hyde (SF) $7,000 @ Atlanta Falcons
Usually, starting a QB with a RB is a negative correlation play. In this case, Hyde has always done better with Kaepernick under center. The Falcons are still ranked 3rd worst against opposing running backs and have given up 16 total touchdowns, 97 receptions and 1,795 total yards to the position. Most people will play Devonta Freeman, but you should roll with Hyde.
Dez Bryant (DAL) $7,500 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As I mentioned above you should fade the Cowboys running game. That doesn’t mean you should ignore the passing game. The Cowboys are projected to score 26.5 points and Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant are no doubt looking for a bounce back spot after last week’s loss. This is the spot as the Buccaneers have given up 16 passing touchdowns and 2,065 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. Fire up Dez!
Antonio Gates (SD) $5,300 vs Oakland Raiders
The Gates play didn’t work out last week, but it wasn’t for lack of trying. Rivers targeted Gates nine times and Gates caught five of those. This week he gets a divisional match up with the Oakland Raiders. They are ranked 10th worst against opposing tight ends and are playing in a game that has an over/under of 49.5 points! This one is projected to be a back and forth shootout, and Gates should be heavily involved. Also, Gates is two away from the tight end touchdown record, and Rivers is well aware of this. Gates is a lock for me this week.
Kansas City Chiefs $4,500 vs Tennessee Titans
The Titans aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home. You could also argue that the Chiefs are on a different level of play than the Titans. The Chiefs defense is also coming together just in time for a deep playoff run. This game has a low 42 point over/under with the Titans only projected to score 18.5 points. To top it all off the Chiefs have one of the best special teams in the league with Tyreke Hill returning punts and kicks. There will be sacks and potentially the first turnover in the red zone of Marcus Mariota‘s short NFL career.
Arash Ghaemi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can also find his work at DraftShot.com and follow him @DraftshotAsh.
