Alex Smith averaged 19 DraftKings points per home game this season
The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs is upon us, and we have another four games to work with this week. With a short slate, it’s important to differentiate yourself where you can, as there is likely to be a lot of overlap in lineups. Let’s take a look at a tournament lineup for the main slate on DraftKings.
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Quarterback
Alex Smith (KC): $5,400 vs. PIT
Smith is a risky proposition, but there are landmines all over when you’re playing a slate like this. He is my second-best value in terms of dollars per point, and I like the fact that he gets to play at home this week. He scored an average of 19 DKP at home in seven games this season, versus 13.3 DKP in eight games on the road. Those are some fairly decent splits, and I think the Chiefs will need a strong outing from their quarterback to pull off a win. If we are looking for fantasy output of three times his current salary to justify utilizing Smith, that kind of production is certainly within reach.
Other Notables:
- Aaron Rodgers (GB): $8,200 @ DAL
- Tom Brady (NE): $7,600 vs. HOU
- Russell Wilson (SEA): $6,900 @ ATL
- Dak Prescott (DAL): $6,000 vs. GB
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,500 vs. GB
The Cowboys have one of the highest implied team totals of the week, and Elliott has not had less than 80 rushing yards since the first game of the season. He averaged 23.2 DKP this season, and he scored less than 20 DKP just five times in 16 games. At a $2,000 discount to Le’Veon Bell, he is a fine pivot play, as I think he will score just as many points as Bell this week.
Devonta Freeman (ATL): $5,900 vs. SEA
In terms of dollars per projected point, Freeman is my top value at the position this week. The matchup obviously is not a good one, but the Falcons have an implied team total of 28.25 points, so Vegas expects something out of this offense. Since Week 10, Freeman saw at least 15 touches in six out of those seven games, and his salary is the lowest it has been since Week 7.
Other Notables:
- Le’Veon Bell (PIT): $10,500 @ KC
- Thomas Rawls (SEA): $6,900 @ ATL
- LeGarrette Blount (NE): $5,800 vs. HOU
- Dion Lewis (NE): $3,900 vs. HOU
Wide Receiver
Julian Edelman (NE): $6,800 vs. HOU
Edelman led all receivers over the final six weeks of the season in terms of targets per game, and yet there’s still four receivers priced ahead of him. The Patriots have the highest implied team total of the weekend, and despite some blowout concerns, I think the offense will want to get things rolling in all facets as they gear up for a Super Bowl run.
Tyreek Hill (KC): $5,500 vs. PIT
Hill is a wild card play on a weekly basis, but even with limited volume, he’s shown the ability to be a home run threat every game. Since Week 14, he’s not had more than eight total touches in any game, but he’s averaged 17.3 DKP over that span. This contest features the lowest implied total of the week, but I have a feeling Hill will have a hand in the Chiefs’ scoring at some point in this game.
Paul Richardson (SEA): $4,100 @ ATL
Richardson was in this spot last week, and I’m going back to the well yet again this weekend. As I noted last week, he is being looked upon to fill Tyler Lockett’s role, and he provided some spectacular catches last week against the Lions. He is a very risky play, but the Seahawks will likely need plenty of firepower to try and keep up with Atlanta’s offense, which should mean a few chances for Richardson to hit on a big play.
Other Notables:
- Antonio Brown (PIT): $9,600 @ KC
- Doug Baldwin (SEA): $8,100 @ ATL
- Davante Adams (GB): $7,000 @ DAL
- Dez Bryant (DAL): $6,600 vs. GB
- Eli Rogers (PIT): $3,900 @ KC
- Terrance Williams (DAL): $3,100 vs. GB
Tight End
Martellus Bennett (NE): $4,000 vs. HOU
Bennett’s low salary is worth targeting this week, as he has multiple-touchdown upside on any given week. The downside is that he could just as easily lose red zone looks to the running game or another receiver, but that’s a risk we need to be willing to take on a short slate.
Other Notables:
- Travis Kelce (KC): $6,100 vs. PIT
- Jimmy Graham (SEA): $4,900 @ ATL
- Jared Cook (GB): $3,900 @ DAL
- C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU): $3,600 @ NE
Flex
Randall Cobb (GB): $5,700 @ DAL
This is dependent on the status of Jordy Nelson, who suffered two broken ribs in last week’s win over the Giants. Cobb came through in a big way in relief of Nelson, and he will likely be called upon to do the same if Nelson remains out. While he will likely split the majority of the targets with Davante Adams, he checks in at a $1,300 discount, thus giving him more value on a point per dollar basis.
Defense/Special Teams
New England Patriots: $4,000 vs. HOU
The Patriots are massive home favorites this week, as they are currently favored by a whopping 15 points against the Texans. Houston looked a little better last weekend, but I don’t think they magically turned things around in one game on offense. They have an implied team total of less than 15 points, and the Patriots should be good for a turnover or two in this contest.
Other Notables:
- Kansas City Chiefs (KC): $3,400 vs. PIT
- Atlanta Falcons (ATL): $2,600 vs. SEA
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net
