Jay Ajayi shredded the Steelers in his first game started
Wild Card Weekend is upon us, and we have four games to work with this week. With a short slate, it’s important to differentiate yourself where you can, as there is likely to be a lot of overlap in lineups.
Week 17’s lineup scored 145.58 DKP, with several hits and misses. This pushed the average up to 138.75 DKP for the regular season. The hits included Matthew Stafford (23.88 DKP), Bilal Powell (25.7 DKP), DeAndre Hopkins (22.3 DKP), Golden Tate (20.4 DKP) and the Arizona Cardinals (26 DKP). Corey Coleman (9.9 DKP) was a slight disappointment, while David Johnson (7.4 DKP, lost to injury), Steve Smith Sr. (6.4 DKP), and Jesse James (3.6 DKP) were disappointments. Hopefully, you were able to capitalize on some of the plays from this article throughout the season while managing to avoid some of the landmines. All told, nine of the 17 lineups scored 145 DKP or more this season, with six of those checking in at 151 DKP or higher. Let’s take a look at a tournament lineup for the main slate on DraftKings.
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Quarterback
Russell Wilson (SEA): $7,000 vs. DET
I really wanted to plug Eli Manning in here, but I think Wilson has a safer floor, with similar upside. While Manning will likely be lower owned, I think you need to take the points. Wilson averaged 20.9 DKP per game at home this season while averaging 15.6 DKP on the road. The Seahawks are healthy favorites at home, and they face a Detroit defense that has allowed an average of 234 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game over the last four weeks. Wilson is my top value at the position in terms of dollars per projected point.
Other Notables:
- Aaron Rodgers (GB): $7,900 vs. NYG
- Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): $7,600 vs. MIA
- Eli Manning (NYG): $6,100 @ GB
Running Back
Le’Veon Bell (PIT): $10,300 vs. MIA
Since Week 10, Bell has averaged a whopping 31 touches per game (excludes Week 17), which is by far tops in the league. While Bell’s salary may seem steep, the gap between him and the next highest projected option is over 10 DKP. The Dolphins have been vulnerable to opposing rushing attacks over the last four weeks, having allowed an average of 171 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. We need right around 30 DKP to justify using Bell, and that certainly is not out of the cards.
Jay Ajayi (MIA): $6,800 @ PIT
Zach Zenner is likely to be the darling of a lot of owners this week, as he carries a low salary, but I’m not taking the bait. The matchup against Seattle couldn’t be much worse, and while the salary relief is meaningful, I’m going to save at receiver this week. That pivots us up to Ajayi, who destroyed this defense to the tune of 36.7 DKP, which was the start of an incredible three-week stretch. Obviously, a lot has changed since Week 6, but with Miami likely to have Matt Moore at quarterback, I think they will lean heavily on Ajayi this week. This is also a nice leverage play away from the Dolphins’ receivers, who will likely be heavily targeted this weekend.
Other Notables:
- Lamar Miller (HOU): $6,100 vs. OAK
- Latavius Murray (OAK): $5,000 @ HOU
- Alex Collins (SEA): $4,500 vs. DET
- Paul Perkins (NYG): $4,100 @ GB
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) : $6,700 vs. OAK
It looks like Brock Osweiler will be back under center for the Texans, but I still like the contrarian nature of this play. While Sean Smith has been good overall in coverage this season, he’s still beatable. Per Pro Football Focus, Smith is allowing 0.33 fantasy points per route. While there’s risk in using Hopkins, it’s worth noting that Osweiler did complete 66.7% of his passes in Week 11 at Oakland. As I noted in the introduction, you need to differentiate yourself where you can when there’s a lot of overlap expected, and this is a good way to do just that.
Victor Cruz (NYG) : $3,800 @ GB
A lot of attention is being paid to the decision on whether or not to use Antonio Brown or Odell Beckham Jr., so I’m going to use that to my advantage. Damarious Randall has been awful in coverage this season, so I look for Eli Manning to exploit this with Cruz, who figures to see a lot of Randall. According to Pro Football Focus, Randall has allowed a whopping 0.51 fantasy points per route, and he’s being targeted 23% of the time by opposing quarterbacks. The floor is incredibly low for Cruz, but as we saw in Week 16 (16.4 DKP), there is tournament winning upside here.
Paul Richardson (SEA): $3,400 vs. DET
Doug Baldwin draws a juicy matchup this week out of the slot against Asa Jackson, but Richardson is my cheap home run threat in this offense. He is filling the role of Tyler Lockett, and he certainly has the speed to get behind opposing defenses. You’re essentially needing four or five catches for 50 yards and a score, which definitely isn’t out of the question this week. The volume has been encouraging in Lockett’s place, as Richardson has garnered 12 targets over the last two weeks while catching eight passes for 82 yards and a score.
Other Notables:
- Antonio Brown (PIT): $9,400 vs. MIA
- Jordy Nelson (GB): $8,000 vs. NYG
- Doug Baldwin (SEA): $7,000 vs. DET
- Golden Tate (DET): $6,300 @ SEA
- Sterling Shepard (NYG): $4,800 @ GB
Tight End
Luke Willson (SEA) : $2,500 vs. DET
Tahir Whitehead has been horrific in coverage this season, as evidenced by Pro Football Focus’ grade for the linebacker, who puts him near the bottom of the league. The Lions have struggled against opposing tight ends all season, and for a minimum priced play, we are just looking for a touchdown to justify this play.
Other Notables:
- Jimmy Graham (SEA): $5,300 vs. DET
- Ladarius Green (PIT): $4,500 vs. MIA
- C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU): $4,200 vs. OAK
- Eric Ebron (DET): $3,900 @ SEA
Flex
Davante Adams (GB) : $5,600 vs. NYG
The Giants’ secondary is no joke, but Adams does figure to see Eli Apple, who has been the weaker link (if you can call it that) among the cornerbacks for this defense. Jordy Nelson figures to be locked up with Janoris Jenkins, and I think this will open up some opportunities for Adams. Adams is a top five value at the position this week, and he’s a good way to get exposure to this passing attack without having to spend top dollar.
Defense/Special Teams
Houston Texans : $3,800 vs. OAK
The Texans are the most expensive option at defense this week, and with Oakland starting a rookie quarterback, it makes sense to lock them into your lineups. The Texans allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game on the season, and they ranked 12th in terms of rushing yards allowed per contest. While they aren’t huge favorites, Houston does get the benefit of playing at home, against rookie Connor Cook, who is making his first ever start in a playoff game.
Other Notables:
- Seattle Seahawks (SEA): $3,700 vs. DET
- Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT): $3,500 vs. MIA
- Oakland Raiders (OAK): $3,000 @ HOU
Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net
