James Harden is worth spending up for on Tuesday
Tuesday night in the Association features a small five-game slate of games. Looking at the Vegas lines and totals there are three games to focus our attention to with the Raptors/Nets, Rockets/Heat and Nuggets/Lakers coming in with a Vegas total of 220 or higher while the other two games have a total of 202 or lower.
My lineup recommendations each Tuesday will be focused on cash games (50/50, Head-to-Head, Double Ups) but can also be used in GPP tournaments.
You will notice that I reference some of my own custom stats in my NBA DFS articles that I use to help determine my favorite plays. I don’t use the common Defense versus Position (DvP) numbers that most use. Instead, I calculate blended percentages for each stat category (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) that take into account team stats for the season and last five games, as well as a weighted average between similar positions. For example, my shooting guard DvP numbers are a blended between point guard (10%), shooting guard (70%) and small forward (20%) stats for each category.
Point Guard
Kyle Lowry (TOR): $9,000 @ BKN
The only concern regarding Lowry and the rest of the Raptors’ starters in Tuesday’s matchup is if they play limited minutes in a game they are expected to win big and with a back-to-back game looming on Wednesday. Even with the potential for reduced minutes, Lowry is a great play in a very favorable matchup with the Nets but he might not have GPP upside.
D’Angelo Russell (LAL): $6,000 vs DEN
Russell and the Lakers play at home against the Nuggets on Tuesday in what is expected to be a close game with a lot of offensive production. His playing time has been consistent with at least 26 minutes in 10 straight games but his fantasy production has been hit-or-miss. However, with a great matchup against the Nuggets who have allowed increase production to opposing PG in points (+20.0%) and assists (+17.5%), tonight’s game should be a “hit” for Russell.
Others Options
- Goran Dragic (MIA): $6,700 vs HOU
- Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): $4,500 @ LAL
Shooting Guard
James Harden (HOU): $12,300 @ MIA
Harden is the only high-priced stud option on the slate, thus he will be extremely popular even though he doesn’t have the best matchup against the Heat who have performed well against opposing guards this season. Tougher matchups are not a concern for Harden who can produce against any opponent and is the only player on the slate capable of putting up 60-plus FanDuel points.
Lou Williams (LAL): $4,600 vs DEN
Williams might be heating up again after scoring 26 points on Sunday. With Jordan Clarkson questionable for the game on Tuesday against the Nuggets, Williams could see an increase in playing time if Clarkson is ruled out. Even if Clarkson plays, Williams is a viable value play at SG.
Other Options
- DeMar DeRozan (TOR): $9,400 @ BKN
- Will Barton (DEN): $4,800 @ LAL
Small Forward
Harrison Barnes (DAL): $6,800 @ CHI
Barnes isn’t my first choice at SF but due to roster construction, he is the player that fit best into the lineup. He has a tough matchup against Jimmy Butler and the Bulls but he has been pretty consistent this season scoring at least 15 points in 18 out of his last 19 games.
DeMarre Carroll (TOR): $4,600 @ BKN
Carroll’s price has started to increase recently but it still is not high enough to match his production lately. He has scored at least 28 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and gets a favorable matchup on Tuesday against the Nets who have allowed increased production to opposing SF in points (+15.2%), rebounds (+20.2%) and steals (+39.9%).
Other Options
- Kawhi Leonard (SA): $8,800 vs MIN
- Trevor Ariza (HOU): $5,800 @ MIA
Power Forward
Nikola Jokic (DEN): $8,500 @ LAL
Jokic has been on fire recently averaging 43 FanDuel points over his last eight games including putting up 54.7 FanDuel points against the Magic on Monday. As if things couldn’t get better for Jokic, he has a plus matchup on Tuesday against the Lakers who have allowed increase production to opposing big men this season.
Kenneth Faried (DEN): $4,300 @ LAL
Faried has been a tough player to project on a nightly basis this season due to inconsistent playing time. However, he appears to finally be trending in the right direction including drawing the start at PF on Monday and playing 33 minutes while putting up 20 points with five rebounds. Faried should play similar minutes again in a favorable matchup against the Lakers who have allowed an increase in points (+3.8%) and rebounds (+12.5%) to opposing PF.
Other Options
- Julius Randle (LAL): $6,200 vs DEN
- Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): $5,700 @ CHI
Center
Lucas Nogueira (TOR): $3,800 @ BKN
Nogueira’s minutes and fantasy value is largely dependent on if Patrick Patterson plays or not. If Patterson is out, then Nogueira should start at PF and play at around 30 minutes. At a cheap price of just $3,800 he only needs to post 19 FanDuel points to return 5x his salary. If Patterson then you will need to pivot to find some savings elsewhere and pivot to Nogueira’s teammate Jonas Valanciunas.
Other Options
- Hassan Whiteside (MIA): $8,900 vs HOU
- Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): $6,000 @ BKN
Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
