LeGarrette Blount is having a career year and will look to repeat his Week 3 performance against Houston
You’re reading the title right. The spread in the night cap (8:15 pm ET) for Saturday is a monstrous 16 points, and there’s no reason to think the Patriots can’t cover the spread as the Texans stroll into Gillette Stadium led by Brock Osweiller. It’s hard to imagine the result of this game being anything else but a blowout, but anything is possible, right?
Houston’s strength is their defense and Jadeveon Clowney is playing like a beast. There’s only one problem, though, and that’s the potential MVP, Tom Brady, on the other side of the ball. The Texans also didn’t slow down the Patriots when they lost 27-0 in Week 3 with LeGarrette Blount rushing for 105 yards and two touchdowns. Don’t forget, that was also with Jacoby Brissett making his first career start while Brady was suspended. If you’re looking at history, that’s also not in favor of Houston. The Texans are 1-6 all-time against New England and they have never won in the divisional round. The Patriots have made it to the AFC Championship Game in the last five postseasons while going 10-2 in the divisional round with Brady under center. This could all just be too much for the Texans to cover and the experts believe that to be the case. See what they have to say below.
More Game Picks:
Seattle at Atlanta (-5) | Steelers at Chiefs (-1.5) | Packers at Cowboys (-4.5)
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Houston Texans (+16) |
New England Patriots (-16) |
30%of Experts |
70%of Experts |
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“It is not hard to predict that New England will win this game. They won 27-0 at home back in Week 3 and that game was started by rookie third-string QB Jacoby Brissett, not future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady. Still, 16 points is a lot of points to spot a Houston team that has the best yardage defense in the NFL. I am going to pick the Patriots to win, but Houston to cover the spread. I think they will win by 10-14 points, but 16 points seems like too many points against a defense that is playing very well.”
– Derek Lofland (Fantasy Football Maniax) “This is way too big of a line for a playoff game and I originally picked the Texans, but after thinking about it, there’s no way the Texans offense hangs around with Brady’s bunch.”
– Mike Tagliere (Pro Football Focus) “The NFL really screwed up having this game be the Saturday prime time game. I’ll be watching NBA. I am going to take the points in this one as I think Houston’s defense will be able to slow down the Patriots offense a little bit.”
– Sean Beazley (EDSFootball) “As massive home favorites, the Patriots are projected to beat the Texans by more than two touchdowns this weekend. With an extra week of rest, Tom Brady and company will undoubtedly be clicking on all cylinders. Still, I can’t see New England’s starters burning themselves out for next round by racking up late-game points in what should be an easy win. That, plus the fact that Houston actually boasts a very solid defense behind the likes of Jadeveon Clowney, A.J. Bouye and Whitney Mercilus, among others, gives me reason to believe the Texans could keep this game closer than some think. Here’s a fun stat: Brock Osweiler is 1-0 in career starts versus Tom Brady.”
– Robert Kohnfelder (Fake Teams) “I’ve gone round and round with this game all week. In the end, I cannot lay -16.0 in the playoffs when the underdog has a good defense.”
– R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics) “Sixteen. Wow. Sorry, I just can’t lay that many points here. Houston still has enough competent offensive pieces to go with head coach Bill O’Brien, a former assistant of Bill Belichick, and their solid defense. Randy Bullock gives me the biggest pause here, but I’ll begrudgingly take the points.”
– Nick Mariano (RotoBaller) “The Patriots will win easily but I’m not sure they cover a 16-point spread. Houston will look to pound the ball on the ground trying to keep Tom Brady on the sideline and their defense is no pushover. Patriots fans don’t need to worry about this one but I just see the spread as a bit high.”
– Walton Spurlin (FantasySharks) “16 points is just too many for me to leave on the table. New England will win the game, but I’m taking the points.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed) “I’m the biggest Pats fan there is, but the Texans have the type of defense that can keep things close. I still think the Pats win, but I think it’s more like 10-13 points than 16+”
– Nick Raducanu (ProjectRoto) – Sean Koerner (STATS)
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“This game is going to get ugly. I’m cheering for the Texans but I would never bet that way.”
– Mike Rigz (Gridiron Experts) “It’s a ton to cover 16 points in the NFL, but the Patriots are not going to mess around here. It would have to get to 20 points before I’d consider going with the Texans.”
– Dan Clasgens (Get Sports Info) “The line could be 20, I don’t care. 16 is a huge number in the playoffs to give but the Patriots at home are almost unbeatable, they are rested, they are on a mission. I see this one over quick.”
– Ken Zalis (Pressbox) “The Texans got blanked the first time these two teams and Jacoby Brissett was under center. Tom Brady is on a revenge mission and it doesn’t end until the Super Bowl. Sorry, Houston.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) “All 4 divisional games are rematches of games that took place during the regular season. Previous game: New England 27 Houston 0 in New England. In the previous meeting, Tom Brady did not play as he was serving his 4 game suspension. This is absolutely the ugliest game to pick against the spread. Most people will be in agreement that New England should win this game, but for them to win by at least 3 scores is hard to predict. Houston faced an average defense last week against Oakland, but will face a top 5 defense against New England this week. The Patriots defense has allowed the fewest points per game (15.6) in the NFL during the regular season. New England will get out to an early big lead with Brady leading the way on offense and the New England defense causing turnovers when Houston gets behind and QB Brock Osweiler begins to press, leading to several turnovers.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire) “Amateur gamblers should walk away from a spread more befitting of a Harlem Globetrotters-Washington Generals game than an NFL playoff game. Forced to make a pick, I can’t back Brock Osweiler’s side over Tom Brady’s side even with the timber so tall.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) “Really difficult to pick a team favored by more than 2TD’s, but I don’t see Houston scoring more than 13 and the Pats should put up at least 30.”
– Kevin Wheeler (NFL Mock) “Sixteen points is a massive spread and it feels uncomfortable to take the Patriots. However, few teams possess the ability to dismantle a team like the Patriots do and that will likely happen Saturday.”
– Daniel Marcus (Fantasy-Phenoms) “The Patriots can contain Brock Osweiler. And even if they can’t, Tom Brady will still throw enough touchdowns that it won’t matter. ”
– Jack Delaney (Your Fantasy Football Coach) “Taking the big favorite seems like a square move, but it is tough to see anything but a blowout. It also helps that underdogs of two touchdowns or more are 33-43 ATS the last 10 seasons and 1-11 in the last 12 occurrences.”
– Raymond Summerlin (Rotoworld) “Houston doesn’t have the offense to have a chance to cover the spread. Patriots defense is strong and they know how to win playoff games.”
– James Hatfield (Hatty Waiver Wire Guru) “The Pats were favored by 10 or more four times this season, and went 4-0 ATS in those contests. A week off to get ready for a team they’ve already trounced? Let’s make it 5.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR) “The Patriots have Tom Brady and the Texans have Brock Osweiler. That’s really all you need to know about this matchup. And yes, Osweiler has beaten the Patriots at Foxboro before with an elite defense behind him, but he has proven to be one of the worst quarterbacks in football. The task of keeping the score close will be too great for Houston’s defense to handle. Don’t expect any mercy from Bill Belichick.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts) “I’m just going to keep riding Tom Brady’s offense until he gives me a reason to think otherwise. The Texans defense is good, but Brady doesn’t care. The Patriots should slow Brock Osweiler which will be more than enough.”
– Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion) “Tom Brady at home against the facade of a multi million dollar quarterback who’s propensity is to allow the opposing team more scoring opportunities than his own.”
– Scott Whitfield (Roto Rankings) “If the Pats score 27, they’ll probably cover. It’s close, but give the points.”
– John Halpin (Fox Sports) “The Patriots hammered the Texans earlier this year 27-0 while being led by their third string quarterback Jacoby Brissett,, and this game will be even worse with Brady at the helm. The Patriots do not relent in the playoffs against bad teams, as they simply do not lift their foot off the gas such as the 2014 AFC title game Pats 41 Colts 7. The Pats have been rounding into form on defense, and it will be a long night for Brock Osweiler and company in Foxboro.”
– Dan Yanotchko (EDSFootball) “This is a lot of points to be laying in the playoffs, but Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia shouldn’t have too much trouble befuddling Brock Osweiler. And Tom Brady will of course get his. This one could get out of control quickly.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts) “Vegas has set a nice little trap for us, with a massive line favoring the Patriots. I initially didn’t want to, but I’ll take the bait. The Texans are in uncharted territory as a team, and if last week was Brock Osweiler’s best, it won’t be good enough this week. The Patriots should be well rested for this contest, and they will leave no doubt that they are one of the top teams to beat in the league.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars) “It’s simply impossible to pick against the Patriots at home in the playoffs.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall) “16 is entirely too many points. Yes, it’s Brady vs. Osweiler. Yes, it’s in Foxborough. Yes, the Pats beat the Texans 27-0 in Week 3 with Jacoby Brissett… Wait, what the hell am I talking about?! Am I really advising betting against Brady?! Nope. All this talk about the Texans d, but the Pats haven’t been that bad themselves.”
– Leonard Francis (Maximize Your Odds) “This is a ridiculously large spread for a playoff game. Conventional wisdom would say that a team would get up by double digits and coast the rest of the way, but the Patriots are a different animal. They are a team who continue to step on the gas pedal even with a large lead.”
– Kaz Kalita (DraftStars) “If the pats don’t win this by 20 points, it’ll be because aliens abducted Tom Brady.”
– Matt De Lima (ScoutFantasy) “Apart from the Patriots riding a 5-0 record against the spread as a favorite, this team will approach this game as they do with other game plans – focus on neutralizing the main strength of the opposition. That strength is the Texans defense. Therefore, the Patriots will try to wear it down on the ground so that by the 3rd quarter the soft spots in the secondary open up. The Texans will find stiff resistance on the other side of the ball as Osweiler faces pressure up front all day long – forcing errant throws.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack) “People were calling the Raiders vs Texans game the most boring game of the playoffs in a long time. This might beat that as I expect complete domination from the Patriots.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack) “This line should be -32 for me to take the Texans. The Texans won’t even score 10 points, the Patriots won’t be held under 28 points.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers) – Bill Enright (FFChamps)
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Thanks to the experts for giving us their picks. Agree or disagree? You can discuss in the comment section below. Be sure to also check out and subscribe to our latest podcast.
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