Like him or not, Tom Brady is as good as there has ever been at the QB position
The Conference Championship round will be wrapped up with a matchup between the Steelers and Patriots Sunday night (6:40 pm ET). These two perennial AFC powerhouses will square off in Foxborough where Tom Brady is 23-9 at home in playoff games. New England is also 17-3 straight up in their last 20 games at home while going 5-0 against the spread in its last five games. All this boils down to two things.
1. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are the best in the business.
2. There should be no question that this coach and quarterback enjoy sticking it to the league or anyone else that tries to discredit them and their track record speaks volumes for how good they are.
The Steelers are far from slouches themselves. They too are 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games and have arguably the best QB/RB/WR combination in the entire NFL. Yes, the Steelers lost to the Patriots back in week 7 at home, but this time Roethlisberger will be playing and Gronkowski won’t be available. If there is a takeaway from that game, it’s that Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell were both very successful even with Landry Jones at QB, and that LeGarrette Blount could not be stopped by his old team. Based on a six-point spread, the experts think the Patriots will cover. Find out why below.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) |
New England Patriots (-6) |
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“New England is the top-scoring defense in the NFL, but they have not played a trio like QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown. The last time these teams played in the regular season, Big Ben was hurt and their offense did not show well. I think the Steelers have an excellent chance to win this game behind their running game and improved defense. Even if they lose, I think it will be closer than six points.”
– Derek Lofland (Fantasy Football Maniax) “Biases aside a spread this “big” is questionable. I like Tom and Co. don’t get it twisted. Just by a field goal.”
– Terrance Bridgett (Fake Pigskin) “I think this game stays way under the current total of 51. The Patriots and Steelers ranked 1st and 10th, respectively, in points allowed during the regular season. New England wins, but Pittsburgh covers.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks) “The AFC playoffs haven’t been so great, but this is the matchup everyone outside of Kansas City and Oakland wanted. Something tells me there could be lots of LeGarrette Blount as the Patriots look to maintain possession and in turn keep Ben, Bell and Brown off the field.”
– Ben Standig (CSN Mid-Atlantic) “Betting against the Patriots in home games won’t become a habit, I can assure you, but this is too much lumber to lay against an opponent with such a dangerous, multifaceted offense. It’s been more than two months since the Patriots faced a team that finished in the top half of the league in total offense. I think the Pats will have to survive a shootout to cover such a big number.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) “The best way to beat the Patriots is to keep Tom Brady off the field as much as possible. The best way to keep an offense off the field is to run the ball. The Steelers have arguably the best running back in football in Le’Veon Bell. Bell struggled to find running room in these two teams’ regular season meeting, but keep in mind that Landry Jones was starting that game. If Ben Roethlisberger can keep from turning the ball over and if Bell can handle a heavy workload, then Pittsburgh will have a good chance to beat the Pats, or at least cover the spread.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts) “I don’t have a strong feeling either way here, but could see this game going either way. In that case, take the points.”
– John Halpin (Fox Sports) “The Patriots haven’t faced a decent quarterback in months and won’t be able to shut out both Bell and A.Brown. The Steelers + 6 is a very generous line if you ask me.”
– Mike Rigz (Gridiron Experts) “The Patriots played their “C” game last week and still covered a 16.5-point spread. They now essentially get two extra days to prepare compared to the road weary Steelers, who are in a tough spot, and I’m sure I’ll feel dumb betting against Brady/Belichick come Sunday, but I’m taking the points.”
– Dalton Del Don (Yahoo! Sports) “I think the Steelers pull the upset here. It will be a close game, but I think New England still has a difficult time shutting down Brown and Bell. The Patriots weren’t able to contain them in Week 7, and I don’t think they will now.”
– Jack Delaney (Your Fantasy Football Coach) “The Steelers are going to need to be much better in reaching the end zone if they hope to pull off the upset this week. I see another heavy dose of Le’Veon Bell in an effort to keep Tom Brady and company on the sidelines. Ultimately I think the Patriots pull out a hard fought win relying on Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis once again. The Steelers should be able to cover the spread but I don’t see them beating the Patriots in Foxborough.”
– Walton Spurlin (FantasySharks) “Both teams didn’t look great last week, and you could argue that they both could’ve lost with a break here and a break there. It’s common knowledge that Belichick tries to take out opposing team’s best player, but who will that be in this one? One of Antonio Brown or Le’Veon Bell is enough to take over the game, and the “Hoodie” won’t be able to stop both of them. I’m not convinced the Steelers will win, but they’ll keep it close enough for me to take the points.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed) “All signs point to the Patriots covering this one given their history at home, but I’m not entirely confident in this team against good competition. They had a fairly easy regular season schedule and had trouble beating Landry Jones in the first meeting. I think at the least the Steelers will keep this close.”
– Adam Zdroik (Today’s Pigskin) “Many expect the match-up between Tom Brady vs. Big Ben to be a shootout, but I expect a bit less scoring in this affair as both players are missing some weapons. Roethlsiberger’s road woes are well documented so the Steelers will lean on Le’Veon Bell to pace the offense and keep Tom Brady off the field. Bell is good enough to keep things close, but the Pats are just a better team and will find a way to get it done. -> Patriots 24, Steelers 20”
– Dan Clasgens (Get Sports Info) “The Patriots were under-tested by Houston last Sunday and we were already looking forward to kneel downs by the middle of the 3rd quarter. Thanks to Antonio Brown, they have a rallying cry fridge magnet, but the Steelers weaponry will be looking for the end zone this week after the Chiefs allowed cobwebs on the pylons. There’s a real fight here to be sure, but the Steelers have plenty of late drive muscle to even escape a two possession deficit should it occur.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack) “Pittsburgh will keep it closer than six points. I even have a feeling they may shock us all and return to the Super Bowl.”
– The FFGhost (Dynasty League Football) – Sean Koerner (STATS)
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“The Steelers are absolutely a threat to the Patriots, but Tom Brady is on a mission (7-1 this year) and shook off his rust with a shaky effort last week. He’s at home with the Super Bowl in reach. This one might not end up being quite as close as some expect.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) “Pats defense has been hot but the QBs they played have been trash. Luckily for them Big Ben hasn’t been great away from Heinz Field.”
– Andrew Ferris (FFLockerRoom) “New England’s defense continues to be underestimated. Pittsburgh’s inefficiency both on the road and in the red zone put this game squarely in New England’s corner.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers) “Big Ben on the road. Ben in New England. Patriots have the ability to shut down Brown and contain Bell. Brady and Belichick in the playoffs… lots of B’s, lots of reasons for the Patriots to win.”
– Jake Ciely (RotoExperts) “I have a feeling the Patriots Defense will be ready for Le’Veon bell this week and despite an inspired game from Antonio Brown, the Pats will win this one going away in the 4th Quarter. I was not impressed with the Steelers play calling last week or Big Ben’s decision making.”
– Dennis Esser (Coach Esser) “The Steelers on the road? Yawn. They won’t have the Chiefs offense on the other side of the ball this week, and Vegas is essentially begging you to take the Steelers by giving six points. It’s not enough, Pats should win by at least a touchdown.”
– Mike Tagliere (Pro Football Focus) “New England will definitely win the game, but Pitt could make it close. The Steelers couldn’t get a TD against KC so I don’t see them racking them up in NE.”
– Kevin Wheeler (NFL Mock) “Pittsburgh’s offensive struggled continued last week on the road, and in the red zone. Expect New England to stay hot and have no trouble beating a six field goal performance.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR) “Tom Brady has been nuclear against the Steelers who barely squeaked out the victory against KC. If this game was in Pittsburgh I’d have a lot more belief in the Steelers, but as it stands now the Patriots appear Super Bowl bound.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers) “Correct me if I’m wrong (since I’m not on InstaChat), but Alex Smith isn’t starting for the Patriots Sunday. Nor is Matt Moore… Over his 13 year career, Big Ben is 1-3 at Foxborough. The one win came against Matt Cassel. Don’t expect to see him either. My money is on Brady.”
– Leonard Francis (Maximize Your Odds) “I really want to take the Steelers here, but I can’t find any numbers to support their cause. The Patriots have scored 30 or more in 9 games this season (including last week) and have almost 37 points per game over their last three. Compare that to the Steelers who couldn’t find the end zone last week and have only 25 points per game over their last three games. It would take a major breakdown of the Patriots league-best scoring defense (15.6 ppg) to not cover the six points here.”
– David Biggs (Drink Five) “The surprise to this game is that New England actually has a pretty good defense, as they limited opposing rushers to 88.6 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry this year. Also Tom Brady has been historically dominant against the Steelers, including playoffs he is 11-2 lifetime with 26TD’s and 3 Interceptions. The Steelers will need to score touchdowns to win this game, but the Pats defense excels at stopping teams and making them kick field goals.”
– Dan Yanotchko (EDSFootball) “Gotta go with New England here as they are the most balanced team remaining. Big Ben hasnt been the same in the second half or on the road and while Le’Veon Bell has been running better than anyone, I believe Bill will scheme the defense to take away his rushing ability.”
– Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac) “Patriots won’t have an issue moving to the next round, their defense has been strong enough to keep this team moving to the Super Bowl.”
– James Hatfield (Hatty Waiver Wire Guru) “New England is 14-3 against the spread this season and Pittsburgh is 11-6-1 against the spread this season. Ben Roethlisberger is 1-3 when facing a #1 ranked scoring defense. Defense wins championships, Tom Brady is not going to have to poor games in a row, and Bill Belichick is the best at taking away an opponent’s best weapon (Le’Veon Bell). If we just look at the games that Tom Brady has started this season, New England was 10-2 against the spread during the regular season and 11-2 against the spread overall.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire) “Both of these teams looked vulnerable last week but Tom Brady at home with less than a touchdown spread is the way to go.”
– Daniel Marcus (Fantasy-Phenoms) “The defense stepped up for the Steelers in a big way in Kansas City, but this is a different story. The offense has to capitalize on its opportunities more than it did against the Chiefs, and that is going to be tough against the defense which easily allowed the fewest points in the league, albeit against a bad schedule. Betting against the Patriots at home is rarely a good decision, and the Steelers have too many holes to be the exception.”
– Raymond Summerlin (Rotoworld) “The Patriots quietly thumped a tough Houston defense last week at home, and while they will have a better offense to contend with, I think they cover this weekend.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars) – Greg Smith (TwoQBs)
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Thanks to the experts for giving us their picks. Agree or disagree? You can discuss in the comment section below. Be sure to also check out and subscribe to our latest podcast.
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