Wil Myers came fast out of the gates before cooling off last season
Wil Myers is the best fantasy option on his team, a dual power-speed threat who went 28 for 28 in 2016 and also played a full season for the first time in his career. Should we expect a repeat from the 26-year-old?
Those looking for reasons to be excited about Myers don’t need to look very far. Those 28 homers and steals are a rare feat: prior to 2016, it had been three years since any player went 25-25 after Mike Trout did it in 2013. Three players managed it last year: Myers, Trout and Mookie Betts. Trout and Betts are currently the first and second players off the board by both consensus rankings and ADP; Myers is 49th and 55th by those measures. At just 26, there’s no reason to expect Myers will slow down in the near future, so as long as the Padres continue to let him run – and Andy Green certainly seems to be inclined to let his players do so – at least 20 steals seems reasonable.
Myers also avoided the injury issues which have plagued his major league career to appear in 157 games, accumulating 676 plate appearances. A bone spur in his wrist was the cause of much of his missed time in 2015, and wrist and knee problems have interrupted his career before. Owners have dreamed about a full season from a healthy Myers, and it didn’t disappoint.
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The Lineup
While 2016 was all very promising from a power-speed perspective, it’s less encouraging when his other statistics are examined. Myers wasn’t actually the best hitter on the team; both Yangervis Solarte and Ryan Schimpf put up a higher OPS+. The fact that Solarte and Schimpf are the two names ahead of Myers probably tells you something about the state of the team. Fangraphs currently projects the Padres to be the worst team in baseball, with the fewest runs scored. It’s always hard to know exactly how a lineup will play out; suffice it to say that Myers probably needs Padres prospects like Hunter Renfroe and Manny Margot to progress quickly, as well as repeat performances from Solarte & Schimpf, if he is going to have a solid cast around him.
The Expectations
As a prospect, Myers was expected to hit for power but also for some average, with projections of .285-plus. Instead, what we’ve seen over the past 1000 PA suggests a .255-.260 hitter, which isn’t terrible, but also isn’t much better than average. He also has the added pressure of being only eligible at first base in many leagues, having appeared in just 10 games in the outfield in 2016. Although first base is not what it used to be, he still lags well behind elite options like Goldschmidt and Cabrera in terms of average, and is not close to the power of an Edwin Encarnacion or Chris Davis.
The stolen bases also came out of nowhere. Myers added 16 steals to his previous year-high mark – across any levels – of 12. His foot speed was never rated as a huge asset when he was coming up, and there was no indication that he would ever attempt to steal this often through his first three seasons in the majors. The change may be down to both health and his manager, but it seems sensible to entertain the possibility that 2016 was an outlier. A .260-hitting Myers with 25 homers but mid-teens steals is not top 50 material. One season also isn’t enough to assume that the former top prospect will be injury-free. It’s certainly encouraging that he was able to play a full season but it’s also sensible to include some of that injury risk in his valuation.
The Value
There are aspects of Myers that offer more security. His double-digit walk rate sets a nice baseline for those in OBP leagues and ensures that he should score a decent number of runs, even on this team. There is clearly no threat to his playing time and he will bat in the heart of the lineup. At 26, there is still a decent chance for further upside; perhaps we will see him reach 30 home runs, or bring his average up towards the .280 range. Considering all of the factors – the injury history, the surprise steals, the mediocre average, the team quality – paying the current price for Myers seems a little too much. Waiting a round or two bakes in more of the genuine risk that Myers isn’t a 28-28 fantasy star again.
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Darius Austin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Darius, find his work at Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Banished to the Pen and Bat Flips & Nerds and follow him @DariusA64.
