MLB’s Statcast can be a boon to fantasy owners looking for low-cost power potential on Draft Day. Sure, metrics that track barreled balls and exit velocity do highlight many of the usual suspects (with costly stud sluggers like Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera and Giancarlo Stanton being perennial Statcast Leaderboard darlings), but these metrics also offer an early jump on power breakouts from less-prominent players.
For instance, fantasy owners who were wise to these state-of-the-art metrics might have anticipated banner power seasons from Mark Trumbo, Khris Davis, Hanley Ramirez and Chris Carter, all of whom excelled in the 2015 Statcast Leaderboard and then recouped strong returns on investment to fantasy owners in 2016. With this in mind, here are 10 relatively low-cost sluggers whose 2016 Statcast metrics bode well for power production in 2017.
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Miguel Sano (3B/OF – MIN)
A classic “three true outcomes” slugger, Sano boasted a strong 10.9 percent walk rate and a not-so-strong 36 percent strikeout rate in 2016, along with some of the most impressive power indicators across the majors. Sano was top twelve in both average exit velocity (AVG EV) and barrels per batted ball event (BRLS/BBE), barely trailing studs like David Ortiz and Mike Trout on the leaderboard. Set to bat cleanup for the Twins, Sano will need help from a declining Joe Mauer and young question marks like Byron Buxton and Max Kepler to be a difference maker in runs scored and runs batted in.
But the power potential is undeniable, with high-twenties homers a fairly safe floor, and if Sano’s plate approach continues to mature, there’s no ruling out a major power breakout. Sano’s ADP just outside of the top 130 makes him a no-brainer upside corner-infield play, especially if you have batting average to burn.
Evan Longoria (3B – TB)
The veteran third baseman slugged 36 home runs in 2016, the best power output of his career, but fantasy owners are not necessarily betting on a sustained power renaissance, with Longo falling just outside the overall top 100 per FantasyPros’ ADP data. The power metrics do not support this skepticism in the least, as Longoria posted a near-elite 12.8 percent BRLSs/BBE rate, a pace that is doubly impressive considering it was sustained over 447 batted ball events. In fact, Longoria achieved the third-highest barrels rate among players with more than 400 such BBEs, ranking behind only Statcast stud Miguel Cabrera and NL MVP Kris Bryant.
Sustained power over large samples is not something we’re used to seeing from Longoria, who missed 133 games with an injury between 2009 and 2012. But he’s pretty quietly kicked the “injury prone” label, sitting all of six games in the four seasons since. A healthy Longoria could hit 30 more over the fence in 2017, and as an early-mid rounder, he’s an absolute steal.
Yasmani Grandal (C – LAD)
Grandal’s mediocre 2016 batting line masks an altogether awesome year in terms of power metrics. To be fair, the Dodgers’ catcher did withstand an unbelievably dire early summer swoon at the plate, hitting for a .140 batting average and .302 slugging percentage across May and June. But in July the script flipped for Grandal, who hit .265 with a tremendous .581 slugging percentage the rest of the way.
While Grandal couldn’t quite dig out his overall batting line (he ended with a less-than-stellar .228 average), he was nonetheless the number one qualified catcher in terms of AVG EV and BRLS/BBE across the season, all the more impressive when you consider the sub-zero early cold streak. Few players at the barren catcher position hold this sort of power upside along with plus plate discipline (he has a 14.2 percent career walk rate), so he’s worth a slight reach beyond his 147.3 ADP, particularly in on-base percentage leagues.
Joc Pederson (OF – LAD)
The young Dodgers’ outfielder is indeed strikeout-prone, with his 27.3 percent K rate last season representing a career low. But when the young lefty gets into one, he makes it count, with a 93.2 AVG EV that tied him with Sano for 12th among qualified hitters across the league. His solid walk rate (13.2 percent last year) makes him less of a liability in OBP leagues, but overall Pederson could actually do to be less selective at the plate, considering he offered at a well-below-league-average 61.7 percent of pitches in the zone last year.
A version of Pederson who is better at recognizing hittable pitches in the zone could emerge as a difference maker in the power department, and marginal continued improvement in his strikeout rate would be gravy. FantasyPros has Pederson as the 118th hitter off the board on average, a negligible price to find out if the young slugger can turn the corner and truly break out.
Jake Lamb (3B – ARI)
The young D-back made the most of his newfound everyday role in 2016, mashing 29 homers across 594 plate appearances after totaling only 10 over 523 PAs across the previous two seasons. The advanced power metrics back Lamb’s surge in pop, with a 13.5 percent BRLS/BBE rate that bested the marks posted by power luminaries like Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion. Lamb struggles somewhat with making contact (his 72.7 percent contact rate from last year was well below league average), but his plate approach is sound (his career mark on out-of-zone swings is a strong 26.8 compared to a league average around 30), making him a nice low-cost alternative to trendier third base power threats like Javier Baez and Maikel Franco.
Kendrys Morales (1B/DH – TOR)
A plodding thirty-plus slugger who enters the year as DH-only eligible in many formats, Morales is about as un-sexy as fantasy assets get. But the fact is Morales absolutely murdered the ball in 2016, averaging 96.4 mph AVG EV on his fly balls and line drives, just behind the marks from mashers Chris Davis and Jose Bautista. This should come as no surprise, considering that last year Morales posted his first 30-homer campaign in six seasons.
Few of those long balls were cheapies, with the veteran averaging 411 feet on his homer distance, the same mark as Nolan Arenado, who, mind you, played half of his games in Coors Field. Morales gets a friendly home park of his own for the first time in his career, having signed a three-year deal with the Blue Jays in the offseason. Granted, Morales’ age and one-dimensional game mean there isn’t a ton of upside here, but there isn’t a ton of downside, either, barring health, especially if your league mates prefer younger, splashier talent and Morales falls past his 155 ADP on Draft Day.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS – TOR)
With Tulo on the wrong side of 30 and the once-scarce shortstop position now brimming with young talent, the Toronto infielder’s fantasy stock is as low as its ever been. This might be a buying opportunity, though, with Tulowitzki’s 10.2 percent barrels rate a near three-percentage-point improvement on his rate over a shaky 2015 split between Colorado and Toronto.
We don’t even need a return to the .550-plus slugging from his Rockies’ prime to recoup on Tulo’s ultra-depressed current ADP of 142nd overall. Fantasy owners priced out of the luxury middle infielders could do much worse than this taking a low-risk/high-upside gamble on this post-prime slugger.
Jedd Gyorko (1B/2B/3B/SS – STL)
You’ll find few utility infielders ranked highly in the 2016 BRLS/BBE Leaderboard, so Gyorko’s very respectable 10.8 percent mark certainly stands out. The post-hype masher finally broke out in 2016, smacking 30 homers across 438 plate appearances while cutting down his strikeout rate to a career-low 21.9 percent.
Despite the St. Louis infield logjam that will limit his at-bats, Gyorko isn’t a bad bet for mid-20s homer production on a batting average that won’t exactly cripple your squad. Off the board, all the way down at pick 235, Gyorko and his Swiss-army eligibility make for an intriguing bench piece in standard leagues.
Tommy Joseph (1B – PHI)
The late-blooming Phillies’ first baseman showed some serious power chops during his half season with the team in 2016, sending 21 over the fence in a scant 347 plate appearances. His short taste of the majors also looks great by the advanced power metrics, with Joseph posting a 12.5 percent BRLS/BBE (a mark that matched Josh Donaldson’s) and an average homer distance of 409 feet.
Joseph made league-average contact in 2016, not bad considering his 34.7 out-of-zone swing rate and 50.7 percent overall swing rate were both on the high side. The small sample and low-key pedigree make it hard to fully trust Joseph, but he’s the 142nd hitter off the board on average, so it’s not like you need to sell the farm for your share.
Justin Bour (1B – MIA)
An ankle injury bit a two-month chunk out of what was an otherwise promising 2016 for the young Marlins’ first baseman, with 15 bombs over 321 plate appearances reinforced by strong performance in the power metrics (10.6 percent BRLS/BBE and 95.4 AVG EV on liners and flies). Bour has a puncher’s chance of hitting 30 homers over a full campaign, though more playing time could mean increased exposure to lefties and Bour’s sub-.600 career on-base plus slugging against southpaws does not bode well there. Still, Bour is going undrafted in many standard leagues, so finding out whether he can sustain his hard hitting over a full healthy season will cost you next to nothing.
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Tom Whalen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tom, check out his archive or follow him @drillguitar.
