The Los Angeles Angels entered 2016 poised to build upon an 85-win season that left them one victory shy of a Wild Card berth. Mike Trout, the 2016 MVP, led a productive corps of positional players that finished fourth in the American League with 21.6 Wins Above Replacement. An array of injuries to the starting rotation, however, proved fatal to the Halos’ playoff hopes.

Garrett Richards and Andrew Heaney both suffered season-ending elbow injuries as the Angels’ Opening Day rotation combined for a mere 87 starts — 31 of which came from Jered Weaver who spun 84 MPH fastballs to a 5.06 ERA.

Ultimately, the Angels mustered up 74 wins, good for fourth place in the American League West. Despite a disappointing 2016, the Angels have a path to relevancy in 2017 and a handful of players worthy of a fantasy consideration.

Prepare for your fantasy baseball draft with our draft simulator

New Additions

General Manager, Billy Eppler, didn’t waste any time this off-season addressing glaring shortcomings. Eppler prioritized left field, a persistent problem that hit rock bottom as the Halos shuttled nine different players who combined for -2.4 WAR — worst in the American League.

Eppler acquired a former top prospect, Cameron Maybin, via trade from the Detroit Tigers who projects for the lion’s share of plate appearances. Maybin represents a drastic improvement, but nothing in his profile suggests he will be fantasy relevant outside of AL-only or deep mixed leagues. Maybin’s grip on the position is tenuous, and he could end up giving way to a more intriguing fantasy option in a fellow newcomer, Ben Revere.

Revere was downright terrible in 2016, yet he’s one season removed from a five-year span where he hit .296 and ripped off 35 bases per season. If he bounces back, he’s the kind of player Mike Scioscia likes to pencil in atop the batting order where the runs, average, and steals would play in all formats. Uncertainty surrounding his playing time should nix him from draft boards, but he’s deserving of a spot on watch lists as a potential waiver add from the get go.

In addition to the black hole in left field, Angels’ second basemen were disastrous to the tune of a -1.6 collective WAR, besting only the Oakland A’s for the worst in the American League. Eppler’s attempt to resolve this situation comes in the form of Orange County native, Danny Espinosa.

The 29-year-old switch hitter moves from a neutral Nationals Park to the Anaheim marine layer where homers perish, so don’t pay for last year’s career-high 24 jacks. Espinosa doesn’t offer much in a standard mixed-league, but his 16/60/60/7 Steamer projection is plenty serviceable in OBP or AL-only formats.

Eppler’s newest toy, Luis Valbuena, has pummeled right-handed pitching to the tune of an .817 OPS over the last three years. The former Astros’ exit velocities and launch angles validate his home run surge but, as is the case with Espinosa, the move to the Big A will hinder his power output. A 20/70/70 season is within reach, but you can do a whole lot better at first base when you factor in a sub-.250 batting average.

Projected Lineup

1. Yunel Escobar — 3B
2. Kole Calhoun — RF
3. Mike Trout — CF
4. Albert Pujols — DH
5. Luis Valbuena — 1B
6. Cameron Maybin — LF
7. Danny Espinosa — 2B
8. Andrelton Simmons — SS
9. Martin Maldonado – C

The Angels lineup doesn’t offer many enticing fantasy options outside of the heart of the order.

Kole Calhoun maintained his worthiness as a fourth outfielder in mixed leagues despite a different approach in the batter’s box. Calhoun traded some power for contact as he smacked eight fewer homers while reducing his strikeout rate by six percent.

Interestingly, he posted an identical Isolated Power (.167) to 2015 but exchanged some homers for doubles and triples while elevating his batting average by fifteen points. In addition to the batting average gains, his walk rate hit 10 percent for the first time in his career. These adjustments led to a .348 OBP and 91 runs, both high water marks.

At this point, 2,100 plate appearances into his career, we know who Calhoun is. Steamer projects another trademark Calhoun year with a .262 batting average, 20 homers, 157 R+RBI, and a handful of steals. He’s a safe player with a solid floor, but if you’re looking for upside in your outfield, look elsewhere. Expect another OF4 season from Calhoun which is where he’s currently valued as the 44th OF off the board according to FantasyPros Consensus ADP.

Driving in Calhoun is the best player on the planet, Mike Trout, who we’ll discuss later in the article.

Albert Pujols continued his decline posting a .331 wOBA, marking 2016 as the second-worst season of his career. Still, the numbers translated to fantasy success as he popped 31 homers and put up his best RBI total (119) since 2009. Pujols’ output was productive enough to make him a viable back-end 1B option in 12-team leagues.

While his best years are long in the rear-view mirror, the 37-year-old still possess the skills that will keep him fantasy relevant in 2017. His average exit velocity was 26th best among MLB hitters, and he barreled the ball up with more frequency than fantasy studs like Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, and Anthony Rizzo.

Pujols underwent surgery to address Plantar Fasciitis in December which pushes his ETA up to Opening Day. Fantasy owners are proceeding with caution as he’s currently drafted as the 19th first baseman off the board (126th overall). Another 30/100 season is within reason which would make him a valuable corner infield target should the market remain bearish.

Projected Rotation

1. Garrett Richards
2. Ricky Nolasco
3. Matt Shoemaker
4. Tyler Skaggs
5. Jesse Chavez/Alex Meyer/Bud Norris/Nate Smith?

Despite a lack of star power, the Angels’ rotation could emerge as one of the better units in the American League. The additions of Espinosa, Maybin and Valbuena will upgrade an already stellar defense that ranked fifth in MLB with 31 Defensive Runs Saved last season. In addition to improvements in the field, Halo pitchers should benefit from the off-season acquisition of catcher, Martin Maldonado. Maldonado didn’t make the “New Additions” section because he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat, but advanced metrics love his framing ability as an exceptional strike-stealer. Steamer is bullish on the rotation, projecting Angel starters for a 3.85 collective ERA — the third-best in the American League.

As the case with 2016, health will play a huge factor in the overall production of an Angels’ rotation loaded with question marks. Will Richards’ stem-cell enhanced elbow hold up? Does Shoemaker build on a career high 160 innings pitched and make 30 starts? Can Skaggs’ surgically-repaired elbow handle a full workload? And who, if anyone, will emerge as a viable fifth starter? With Ricky Nolasco as the lone known commodity, to say this rotation is “volatile” would be an understatement. Nonetheless, a few intriguing fantasy options are worth a deeper look, and we’ll do that momentarily.

Closer Battle

1. Huston Street
2. Cam Bedrosian
3. Andrew Bailey

Huston Street was abysmal in 2016 posting a 6.45 ERA in 22.1 injury-laden innings. Surely, Street won’t be as bad in 2017, but a look back to 2015 reveals a healthy Street displayed the second and third-worst strikeout and walk rates of his career. His 3.18 ERA and 40 saves masked a decline in skills that isn’t likely to change course in 2017. Unfortunately, Mike Scioscia’s propensity to stick with his veterans may land Street the closer job.

Cam Bedrosian is, without a doubt, the team’s bullpen ace and the guy you ultimately want to own on your fantasy team. Bedrosian took a huge step forward in 2016, punching out nearly 32% of the hitters he faced while slashing an alarming walk rate and elevating his groundball rate to 50%. The skills leap produced a 1.12 ERA in 40 innings pitched as he demonstrated he’s among baseball’s top 25 relievers.

The x-factor in the spring competition is 32-year-old Andrew Bailey. There’s no real reason Bailey should close, but a path to the role exists, nonetheless. Street is not a lock to earn or secure the ninth, and while Bedrosian is deserving, nothing jacks up the arbitration cost of a reliever quite like saves. Should the Angels decide they want to keep Bedrosian in a cost-friendly setup role, Bailey could find ninth-inning work. The Angels aren’t a small market team, but it’s a storyline worth monitoring this Spring.

Stud: Mike Trout

Trout finished one dinger shy of a 30/30 campaign and his 123 runs led baseball as he captured his second MVP in three seasons. The comparisons to Mickey Mantle are beginning to sound more complimentary to Mantle than Trout. Mookie Betts, Clayton Kershaw, Kris Bryant and Jose Altuve offer several tantalizing options atop the draft board — but none quite like Trout. If you hold the first pick in your draft, don’t over think it. Draft Trout, kick back and enjoy watching the greatest player on the planet go to work every night.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Garrett Richards

Richards made six starts before suffering a season-ending elbow injury later revealed as a high-grade UCL tear. Angel fans feared the worst as a tear in the UCL typically leads to Tommy John Surgery and a 12-to-18 month recovery window. Surprisingly, Richards forewent the knife and instead opted for stem-cell therapy. So far, that decision is paying off as Richards is currently on track to take the ball on Opening Day.

Barring any spring setbacks, the question becomes, “Which version of Garrett Richards do we get in 2017?” The 2014 Richards was on the verge of breaking into the top tier of fantasy starters pushing a strikeout-per-inning and 2.61 ERA supported by a 2.60 FIP and 3.16 xFIP. The 2015 Richards took a step backward across the board and profiled as a serviceable yet relatively disappointing SP3.

I love projecting pitchers, but I’d be lying if I told you I knew what to expect from Richards in 2017. The stark contrast between his 2014 and 2015 campaigns combined with immense health risk make him the ultimate wild card.

Steamer is splitting the difference between his 2014 and 2015 strikeout and walk rates, pegging him for an 8.25 K/9, a mid-3 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 145 innings. As the 66th SP off the board and 212th overall, he’s worth consideration during the portion of the draft you’re likely seeking upside.

Spring Training stats are virtually worthless, but in Richards case, I will be monitoring his Cactus League work with an eye on his velocity and command. If he’s sitting at 91-92 MPH, I will likely turn my attention to another upside arm on my draft board. But if he’s back at his usual 95-96 with a decent command of the strike zone he could be a Draft Day bargain.

Sleeper: Matt Shoemaker

As the lone bright spot in an otherwise putrid rotation, Shoemaker delivered solid SP4 returns before a Kyle Seager line drive to the head ended his season last September.

Shoemaker’s lethal split finger was the driver of his success generating swing and misses on 21% of his offerings. Batters hit just .183 against the split, a pitch Shoemaker relied on 36% of the time. Ultimately, Shoemaker’s Swinging Strike percentage spiked to a career high 13.1%, fifth best among MLB starters with at least 160 innings pitched.

In addition to flashing elite swing-and-miss stuff, Shoemaker posted the seventh best walk rate among pitchers with as many innings. His 4.5% rate is in line with his 5% career mark, suggesting it’s a repeatable skill.

The knock on Shoemaker is his apparent lack of durability. The line drive that ended his season was a fluke, but his elbow has been barking on and off for a couple of seasons — hence 160 innings being a career best in 2016. Shoemaker featured added velocity in addition to the hike in splitfinger usage which intensifies injury concerns. Nonetheless, there is no reason he should be drafted as the 64th starter off the board.

Shoemaker’s pension for limiting free passes combined with his ability to generate whiffs and cozy home park make him a great target that is undervalued in drafts this winter.

Bust: C.J. Cron

Deeper league managers may have benefited from Cron who managed to cut his strikeout rate by nearly four percent while featuring a career best, albeit sub-par, walk rate of 5.4%. The plate discipline gains and maintained power output amounted to a .278/22/69/93 line prorated to a full season. Cron’s production was in the ballpark of Stephen Piscotty’s (.273/22/86/85) who is going 129th in drafts. Cron’s plate discipline improvements appear legitimate and sustainable. He chased fewer bad pitches while swinging at and making more contact with pitches in the strike zone. These career best O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, and Z-Contact% are all part of a three-year trend that suggests Cron realized sustainable improvement in these areas.

So far, so good, right? Not exactly.

Despite a noticeably improved approach, the acquisition of Valbuena throws a wet blanket on Cron’s 2017 fantasy prospects. Valbuena figures to slot in as the starting first baseman versus right-handed pitching on most nights. With Pujols entrenched as the designated hitter, Cron’s destined for the short side of a first base platoon, grabbing occasional starts when Valbuena spells third baseman, Yunel Escobar.

Barring an injury to Pujols, Valbuena, or Escobar, it’s difficult to envision a scenario Cron racks up enough plate appearances to have any fantasy relevance. He’s currently going 252nd in drafts, ahead of guys like Tommy Joseph, Matt Holliday, and Greg Bird. I want no part of Cron at that price.

Late-Round Flier: Tyler Skaggs

Skaggs returned to the rotation last July after missing the 2015 season recovering from Tommy John Surgery. In fifty innings of work, he profiled as an entirely different pitcher than his last big league stint in 2014.

The 25-year-old southpaw struck out a batter per inning smashing his pre-TJ rate of 6.85 per nine. Unfortunately, the strikeout spike coincided with an increase in free passes, as his walk rate jumped four percent. Fielding Independent Pitching metrics prefer the 2014 version (3.65 xFIP compared to 4.25 in 2016) but last year’s version is a more attractive fantasy option.

Skaggs’ strikeout jump is fascinating in that he didn’t accomplish it by just adding more swinging strikes to his profile. One might assume a stable Swinging Strike rate would indicate a strikeout crash in 2017. While Skaggs didn’t miss bats with more frequency in 2016, he realized a noticeable increase in called strikes. His 30% called strike rate would have been good for the 11th best mark in baseball among qualified pitchers. The addition of reputable strike stealer, Maldonado, behind the plate should only help Skaggs maintain if not improve upon this newfound skill.

In addition to the increase in called strikes, 30% of strikes thrown by Skaggs resulted in foul balls. Only nine major league starters posted a higher mark. Logic suggests the increases in called strikes and foul balls equates to fewer balls in play. Sure enough, 26% of Skaggs’ strikes were put in play, down from 31% in 2014. Trading balls in play for called strikes and foul balls created more strikeout opportunities.

It’s worth noting that Skaggs did throw fewer strikes as backed by a four percent drop in his Zone%. Combined with a reduction in First-Pitch Strike%, we can understand why his walk rate jumped significantly. While we cannot write off the uptick in walks as a fluke or small sample, it’s worth noting control and command are often the last pieces of the skill set to return after Tommy John. I’m encouraged Skaggs can work his walk rate back into the 8% range.

In other words, I can see why Steamer is optimistic on Skaggs, projecting him for nearly a strikeout per inning with an improved walk rate. While I am buying Skaggs as a late-round flier, I am not paying for the 3.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP Steamer projects.

A more reasonable expectation is a 22% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate, and a mid-40s groundball percentage. These peripherals would profile similarly to what we saw from Gio Gonzales last year who pitched much better than his 4.57 ERA would indicate. As long as Skaggs doesn’t fall victim to the long ball as Gio did, I’d buy a 3.75 ERA and upper 1.2s WHIP while flirting with a strikeout per inning. That profile is surely worth more than the 113th SP off the board.

Prospect to Watch: Nate Smith

The barren Angels’ farm system doesn’t set the stage for an exciting “Prospect to Watch.” Nonetheless, Smith is a guy worth monitoring as a potential contributor in deeper mixed or AL-only leagues.

Roster Resource projects Jesse Chavez as the fifth man in the rotation, but he could be more suitable in a swingman/spot starter role. Another candidate, and runner-up for this honor, that may find himself in a spring battle, is the big arm of Alex Meyer. Meyer features a mid-90s heater and has fanned 10 batters-per-nine at nearly every minor league stop. Unfortunately, he has walked more than his share of batters, including 17 in 25.1 innings during his cup of coffee with the Twins and Angels last year. He’s working a changeup into the mix but may end up a fastball/curveball guy better suited for the bullpen.

Meyer’s move to the pen could pave the way for a more polished youngster in 25-year-old lefty, Nate Smith. Smith isn’t going to blow hitters away like Meyer. He relies on a classic four-pitch mix revolving around a 90 MPH fastball that plays well with a solid changeup. In other words, Smith embodies the “crafty lefty” label to a tee.

Smith posted a 4.61 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, striking out 122 hitters over 150 innings. He shouldn’t amount to more than a back end rotation arm, but a respectable arsenal, elite defense and pitcher’s park may prove valuable in deep fantasy formats.

Check out all of our 2017 Fantasy Baseball Team Previews

Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS

Chris Bragg is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive or follow him @loosemoose6.