Despite a limited ceiling, Christian Yelich carries a high floor

Entering his for season in Major League Baseball, Miami Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich is at an interesting crossroads. With 2,117 career plate appearances, the 25-year-old has an established statistical profile, but fantasy owners may wonder if any growth can be expected. Following a breakout 2016 campaign in which Yelich tripled his HR output, doubled his RBI total, set a career high in games played, and maintained an AVG near .300, it may be hard to turn a profit on a Yelich investment in 2017, but if properly assessed, the lanky lefty will be a solid lineup anchor.

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The Basics

According to the Consensus ADP, Yelich is being picked as the 66th overall player, while he sits at 51 in the Expert Consensus Rankings. This makes him the 19th selected outfielder, and the 15th ranked OF. His Consensus Projection is largely similar to his 5×5 line from last year:

Yelich is projected to accumulate 30 HR+SB, which matches his total from the 2016 season. He is expected to score slightly more runs and drive in fewer while hitting for nearly the same average. On balance, these projections appear pretty rational. His final 2016 stats placed Yelich around the 12th best OF and 47th overall player. A simple statistical repeat in 2017 would likely earn back the cost of acquiring him. One of only 11 players projected to hit .299 or better, Yelich’s value starts with batting average.

The Team Context

Yelich primarily hit third in the lineup in 2016, with 29 games in the cleanup spot while Giancarlo Stanton was injured. He is projected to bat third again in 2017. While not expected to be a prolific offense, the Marlins have a respectable 4-5-6 sequence in Stanton, Marcel Ozuna, and Justin Bour. Batting behind the uninspiring duo of Dee Gordon and Martin Prado means that Yelich is unlikely to generate massive RBI totals, but his place at third in the order still strikes a good balance between plate appearances, RBI and R opportunities.

Under Don Mattingly in 2016, the Marlins were 19th in MLB with 71 total steals, 30 of which came from Dee Gordon post-suspension. Mattingly’s Dodgers were 13th in stolen bases over the previous five seasons. While Yelich possesses above-average athleticism, there is no evidence to suggest a major spike in steals is coming. Owners should be happy to accept his 13 projected bags.

The Risk

As he has matured, Yelich has become a consistent source of batting average. All signs point to more of the same in 2017. Before the 2016 season, Yelich’s fantasy value was limited by his lack of HRs, driven largely by his career ground ball rate in excess of 60% and line drive rate above 20%. In 2016 his flyball rate jumped from 15% to 20%, and his HR/FB rate jumped from 12.5% to 23.6%. This has naturally led some to project a regression towards previous power levels in 2017. As will be explored below, this perceived risk may actually present an opportunity to buy Yelich at a value.

As with many players, the biggest risk to Yelich’s fantasy status is injury. He had a disabled list stint in 2014 for a back strain, and two separate DL trips in 2015 for back and knee injuries. While he was never on the DL in 2016, he battled back spasms in May. The recurring back injury is a somewhat concerning sign, but Yelich’s projected 556 at-bats does represent a conservative built-in decrease from his 578 in 2016. At 25, he still has youth on his side and should not be considered an alarming injury risk.

The Reward

Barring a lengthy injury absence, the factor most likely to swing Yelich’s 2017 fantasy value is power. Any significant profit from drafting Yelich will require yet another step forward in HR output. While simple logic suggests that he is unlikely to repeat a career high HR/FB rate in 2017, positive signs exist deeper. In 2016, Yelich had the second-highest slugging percentage in baseball on fly balls among 292 players with more than 60 such balls in play. He slugged 1.307 on fly balls, while the league average fly ball SLG was .715. Even over the entire period since 2013, when Yelich entered the league, he ranks 8th out of 381 players in fly ball SLG among players with more than 150 fly balls. Likely because he does not hit many lazy flies, Yelich does serious damage when he puts the ball in the air, and it appears to be a skill he can maintain. If he pushes his fly ball rate toward 25%, he would easily maintain or best his 2016 HR output, all while maintaining a high batting average. For fantasy players looking to buy pitchers or speed early in a draft, pairing Yelich with a low average slugger like Chris Davis (75 ADP) or Khris Davis (95 ADP) may be a good way to make up power in the middle rounds without punting batting average.

A tool for using Statcast data to evaluate expected isolated slugging percentage, xISO indicates that Yelich’s .185 ISO from 2016 was no fluke. He hit the ball with authority and earned his extra-base hits. Projected by Steamer for a .162 ISO in 2017, Yelich is, therefore, a good bet to outperform his already strong .836 OPS projection, and could be a sneaky value for those playing in OPS leagues.

The Final Verdict

As he is unlikely to hit 30+ home runs or steal 30+ bases, Yelich has a somewhat limited fantasy ceiling. However, his track record of hitting for average and strong underlying power indicators point to a high floor. Hitting in the middle of an average Marlins lineup, Yelich seems poised to deliver solid fantasy value in 2017 as a second outfielder. Standard leaguers should feel comfortable buying at his current draft price and should be ready to pounce if he falls on injury or power regression concerns. Players whose leagues use OPS or SLG will want to target the lefty as an under-appreciated power source with additional room for growth despite a breakout 2016 season.

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Andrew Dominijanni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @ADominijanni.