Will Eric Thames’ (middle) success in Korea continue in the majors?
Eric Thames has just spent three years dominating the Korean League but failed to make any real impact during his first shot at the majors. Will the new Brewers first baseman be able to translate his success back to the United States?
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Major League Experience
There’s no question that Thames was overmatched in his previous stints in the major leagues. He didn’t look too out of depth in his debut season, hitting 12 home runs with a .769 OPS in just under 400 plate appearances for the Blue Jays in 2011. Unfortunately, he went backward in 2012, striking out 30% of the time and only hitting nine home runs in half a season, dropping to a .672 OPS.
Halfway through that year, he was traded to Seattle, then to Baltimore following the season, where he didn’t get a chance to play in the majors at all and even struggled to hit at Triple-A after previously excelling at the level. A brief spell with the Astros followed when they claimed Thames off waivers, but they soon released him so he could take the opportunity to play in the KBO.
Korea
Thames was instantly a star for the NC Dinos. He hit 37 home runs in his debut season with a .343 average and 11 steals in 125 games. 2015 saw Thames become MVP as he put up a ludicrous 47-40 season, hitting .381 and walking more often than he struck out. 2016 was a disappointment by comparison, as he hit ‘only’ 40 homers with a .321 average, chipping in 13 steals.
The former Blue Jays prospect was always expected to hit for power, but it was the steals which were a real surprise. In an interview with Blake Murphy of VICE Sports, Thames credited his success to coach Jun-ho Jeon, the ‘Stolen Base King of Korea.’ It certainly appears as though Thames learned many useful things about when and how to steal from Jeon, and if that can carry over to the majors even a little, then it’ll be a big boost for his fantasy production.
2017 Projections
Even assuming a drop-off from his ludicrous Korean production, Thames is well-regarded by numerous systems. Steamer forecasts an impressive 30 homers and 13 steals with a .272/.350/.515 line.
Clay Davenport’s system sees fewer homers (24) with more steals (16), and a higher slugging percentage (.533) as a result of 37 doubles. The ZiPS system is less enthusiastic, but still projects Thames for a very useful 26-10 season, albeit with a .247 average and .321 OBP.
While there’s a decent range of outcomes there, especially on the batting average front, there’s no question that all of those outcomes would clearly be worth more than Thames’ ADP, which currently stands at 231. The 30-year-old is going behind other sluggers like Mike Napoli and right in the same range as players with significant playing time and injury concerns, such as Jedd Gyorko and Wilson Ramos.
There is certainly a risk that Thames’ success was down to his ability to capitalize on KBO pitching and he will revert to his disappointing major league production of five years ago when he faces MLB pitchers once again. However, we’ve seen Jung-Ho Kang have success in America after similarly huge production in Korea, and Hyun Soo Kim produced a useful batting average and OBP for Baltimore last year, even if his other stats left much to be desired.
Thames put up more impressive numbers in the KBO, sustaining an OPS over 1.100 over all three years, and there are plenty of indicators to suggest he’s better-equipped to succeed as a major leaguer. The Brewers committed to him as their first baseman by signing him to a three-year deal and releasing the league-leader in home runs, Chris Carter, to accommodate him. At the current price, fantasy owners should commit to Thames too.
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Darius Austin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Darius, find his work at Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Banished to the Pen and Bat Flips & Nerds and follow him @DariusA64.
