Going into any draft with a rigid plan is asking for trouble. Every draft plays out differently, so the ability to adjust on the fly is vital. That said, going in without any plan is plenty risky, like taking a final exam without studying but rather relying on your long-term memory.
It might work, but more often than not it doesn’t, and panic ensues upon the realization that you don’t know the answer to a question, or have no idea who to draft. This is why it’s important to have at least a general plan, including a list of players (it could be a long list) that you would feel comfortable selecting at various stages of the proceedings.
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Early Rounds
When it comes to drafting, I follow a straightforward approach. My goal in the early rounds is to limit risk. As the saying goes, you can’t win your draft in the first few rounds, but you could easily lose it.
I want players with established track records of excellence. I don’t want players who will be hard pressed to at least earn back their draft day price.
I want Anthony Rizzo, a guy who has now pieced together three straight seasons of at least 31 homers and two straight campaigns with no fewer than 101 RBI and 94 runs scored.
I don’t want Trea Turner, the dynamic 23-year-old who carried many fantasy owners to league titles during the second half of last season. Turner comes with a late-first round or at the cheapest, mid-second round price tag this year, and a lot will need to go right for him to meet those expectations. The speed is legit, but a .342 batting average and 13 homers in just 73 games? While a .300 batting average is attainable (career .316 AVG in the Minors), Turner slugged a combined 19 home runs in 268 minor league contests, so a 13-home run repeat, even in a full season, is far from a sure thing.
Middle Rounds
In the middle rounds, it’s fine to take some chances, but don’t go overboard. Be sure to address as many scoring categories and positions as possible. Although the elite five-category producers will be gone, there should still be plenty of multi-category contributors on the board. Rather than reaching for Travis Jankowski, who might swipe 30-plus bags but won’t offer much else, go with Dexter Fowler, even if you need to draft him a few rounds earlier than Jankowski. In addition to being a 15/15 threat, Fowler’s ability to get on base at a high rate (career .366 OBP) could result in a 100-run season for the Cardinals’ new leadoff man.
As for positions, do not discount the value of multi-position eligibility. Overrating a player based on multi-position eligibility would be a mistake, but it can serve as a tiebreaker of sorts when dealing with tough decisions. Miguel Sano or Maikel Franco? Javier Baez or Dustin Pedroia? In both cases, I’d go with the former, mostly due to the position eligibility factor.
My ideal mid-round selection, however, is either a proven vet coming off a disappointing season (Felix Hernandez, perhaps?) or a player like Mike Moustakas, a 28-year-old who has yet to enjoy a true breakout season despite signs that it could be coming soon.
After registering a .284 22-82 line in 2015, Moose was showing much-improved power last year (seven homers in 27 games) before his 2016 campaign was cut short by a broken thumb followed by a season-ending knee injury. Maybe 2017 will be the year Moustakas believers have been waiting for. Surely, it’s worth a mid-round pick to find out.
Later Rounds
The late rounds are all about adding a mix of quality backups, especially at positions where your starter is injury-prone, and high-upside prospects. Balance is key here, as you don’t want to miss out on profit opportunities yet don’t want to clog up your bench with too many players who might not make an impact until the second half, if at all. J.P. Crawford, Lucas Giolito and Hunter Renfroe should be owned in 2017 non-keeper leagues. Brendan Rodgers, Amed Rosario and Michael Kopech? Not so much.
In the last few rounds, go ahead and take at least one high-end reliever who is setting up for a shaky closer, especially if you own the shaky closer. Ideally, this closer is your third stopper in a 12-team mixed league, so health permitting, you will always have three sources of saves. Even if Huston Street makes it through Spring Training with the Angels’ ninth-inning job, Cam Bedrosian is a must-have for all Street owners.
Over in Philadelphia, Jeanmar Gomez might be considered the ninth-inning favorite for now, but Gomez struggled mightily down the stretch last season (19.13 ERA in September) while Hector Neris was outstanding in 2016 (2.58 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 102 strikeouts in 80 1/3 innings). Neris should be owned in all mixed leagues of 12 or more teams, and if you draft Gomez, you need to draft Neris.
And when the draft is over, please try not to second-guess yourself. I do it, we all do it, but as long as you’re properly prepared and make the best decisions possible with the information available, you will be fine.
Good luck!
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Zach Steinhorn is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive or follow him @ZachMLB.
