Addison Russell may not be as risky as fantasy owners think

Rare are the occasions where one is excited to pick late in snake drafts, but you’ve got this. We’re going to select 11^th here, which is usually viewed as one of the worst picks considering how one doesn’t even control the elbow like one does with the 12^th pick.

For this respective 12-team redraft mock, we’re using standard 5×5 roto categories with these slots: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, 3 OF, 2 Util, 3 SP, 2 RP, 4 P and 5 BN. To complete this mock, I used our Draft Wizard which is a quick and easy way to prepare for your fantasy baseball drafts.

You can view the full draft board and analysis here. We scored a 96 out of 100, so let’s see how that came to be.

Prepare for your fantasy baseball draft using our draft simulator tool

Mock Draft Picks

• 1.11 Anthony Rizzo, CHC
• 2.02 Charlie Blackmon, COL
• 3.11 J.D. Martinez, DET
• 4.02 A.J. Pollock, ARI
• 5.11 Johnny Cueto, SF
• 6.02 Adrian Beltre, TEX
• 7.11 Mark Trumbo, BAL
• 8.02 Zach Britton, BAL
• 9.11 Addison Russell, CHC
• 10.02 Jose Ramirez, CLE
• 11.11 Danny Salazar, CLE
• 12.02 Matt Harvey, NYM
• 13.11 Lance McCullers, HOU
• 14.02 Jameson Taillon, PIT
• 15.11 Russell Martin, TOR
• 16.02 Carlos Gomez, TEX
• 17.11 Devon Travis, TOR
• 18.02 Shawn Kelley, WSH
• 19.11 Adam Ottavino, COL
• 20.02 Neil Walker, NYM
• 21.11 Nick Castellanos, DET
• 22.02 Matt Moore, SF
• 23.11 Matt Holliday, NYY
• 24.02 Rajai Davis, OAK
• 25.11 Jaime Garcia, ATL
• 26.02 Zach Davies, MIL

Early Rounds

While Anthony Rizzo couldn’t turn in another Paul Goldschmidt-like steal total, he’s still a cornerstone player with 100 runs, 30 homers and 100 RBI well within reach alongside a strong average. Nestled inside the incredibly potent Cubs lineup, he shouldn’t let us down if health holds — and he’s topped 615 plate appearances in each of the last four seasons.

Charlie Blackmon had some trade rumors swirling, which is part of being a Rockies’ outfielder right now, but he’s still in Coors Field as of now. The five-category contributor dealt with an early-season foot injury that limited his steals, but those could rebound with health in 2017 to join his improved swing.

J.D. Martinez wouldn’t be drafted this low if he had played a full season, but just shush and enjoy the discount. This is a bat that should approach 30 homers with counting stats that at least sit in the 80s alongside a .300 average. These three bats are a big part of why my squad is projected to fare well in batting average, which can be very difficult to make up for off of the waiver wire.

I paired him with A.J. Pollock, who we discussed in the mid-pick article, as getting those initial early rounders is clearly a great strategy. Having two guys in the first four rounds who can contribute some speed adds a layer of comfort. I’m not keen on filling my OF so swiftly, but it’ll be alright.

We then address pitching with Mr. Johnny Cueto, who clearly enjoyed pitching for the Giants. His 2.79 ERA had a 2.96 FIP behind it, as his stellar control (1.84 BB/9) and groundball rate (50.2%) led him to an 18-5 record with a healthy 198 strikeouts in 219 2/3 innings. He’s a workhorse that I can trust to lead my rotation.

The ageless Adrian Beltre only helps bring some power while reinforcing that strong team average, which allowed me to take on Mark Trumbo with my next pick. Those two could easily combine for 70 homers and a .275 average, which is a combo I will take any day of the week.

Zach Britton should not go a full round later than Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, I’m sorry. I know he can’t quite match their strikeouts, but I will take the steady whiff provisions alongside the beautiful ratio relief from the first-tier stopper.

Addison Russell just turned 23 less than a month ago, which I think more people need to appreciate. We’re spoiled by the amount of insanely talented young shortstops right now, but being able to get another piece of this lineup, at MI no less, is huge.

He cut his strikeout rate from 28.5% to 22.6% in his sophomore season while upping his ISO from .147 to .179. I expect more growth in Year Three, and I haven’t really taken a true “risk” yet in the pursuit of upside.

Middle Rounds

Jose Ramirez is for real. The 24-year-old may only stand at five-foot-nine but finally grew into his swing last season.

He should deliver in all five categories, with the modest pop perhaps being too small for some to settle for at third base. I’ll “settle” for it anytime as I continue to pad my batting average and cobble together steals.

My next four picks were all starting pitchers, three of whom are pretty risky. Danny Salazar needs to regain his control, Matt Harvey’s shoulder “feels great” but no one is going to feel safe over that report, while Lance McCullers (elbow) just threw his first bullpen of the offseason on Feb. 1.

At least I can count on Jameson Taillon and his masterful command to be there for me. For the record, I love the Harvey pick, like the McCullers risk/reward ratio, and view the Salazar selection as my weakest of the draft.

Russell Martin has cleared the 20-homer mark in each of his two seasons with the Blue Jays, and even with a .240 average, the backstop should provide consistent stats at a relatively cheap price. He won’t break through any ceilings, but I’ll take him later in drafts with no qualms. Not everything needs to be exciting.

Carlos Gomez may not be the first-round talent from the days of 2013-14, but he still houses that power/speed upside. He was a lot more valuable when it came with a .284 average rather than last season’s .231 mark, but he should still have plenty to offer at only 31 years old if he can remain comfortable in the batter’s box.

Devon Travis hasn’t been able to put together a full season yet, but when healthy, has offered decent power and an average in the .300s. He should now get the keys to Toronto’s leadoff spot, which means 100+ runs is on the table.

With only one RP thus far, I nabbed Shawn Kelley and Adam Ottavino to fill out the ‘pen. Their ADP suffers from a combination of perceived job risk, durability concerns and staying power, but both have shown themselves to be capable of delivering over a strikeout per inning with a mid-twos ERA. I’ll bite. I don’t see Colorado handing the job over to Greg Holland, and Kelley has no competition as of now.

Late Rounds

After grabbing Neil Walker at MI to fill out my starters, I went with Nick Castellanos in Round 21. His breakout season was put on ice in early August when his grip on a bat was waylaid by a fracture in his fifth metacarpal. Outside of the HBP, he’s been durable throughout his career.

A career that started swiftly, mind you, as this guy is merely approaching 25. He can still grow and is a great late-round target in 2017.

Matt Holliday should rake at Yankee Stadium, with the ability to DH keeping him fresh. Rajai Davis hasn’t slowed down yet and Oakland should have no reservations running him, so I’m buying late anytime I need 40-SB speed. Both of these guys will frequent my late-round picks this season.

We’re not hurting in any one category, with a strong all-around foundation allowing me to compete from the get-go and feel comfortable playing the waiver wire with complete versatility. It looks like No. 11 isn’t a boogeyman pick after all.

Recent mock from the first pick

Recent mock from the sixth pick

Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS