James Paxton’s exciting upside doesn’t come without risks
James Paxton comes into 2017 as that frustratingly tantalizing combination of upside and risk that fantasy owners can’t help but buy into. Is this the year that Paxton reaches his potential, or are owners set for another season of imagining what might have been?
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The Upside
There is plenty to get excited about from Paxton’s 2016 campaign. The control issues, which had previously looked like a serious cap on his upside, went away. Paxton’s walk rate from the previous two years was cut in half, going all the way down to 4.7%.
At the same time, his premium velocity – which jumped to career highs – and great stuff also started to translate into strikeouts, as he punched out almost 23% of the hitters he faced, nearly a batter per inning. For the first time in his career, Pitch F/X tracked him as throwing more than 50% of his pitches in the zone, and the associated stats improved accordingly, including his first-pitch strike percentage, which went all the way up to 62.4%, after never previously topping 55%.
Perhaps even more encouraging is that there’s a clear change driving Paxton’s development: a new arm angle. Eno Sarris of Fangraphs documented the 28-year-old’s switch to a lower, more typical three-quarters arm slot. Paxton said his delivery now “feels natural” and it clearly allows him to locate his pitches far more accurately in addition to tapping into that extra velocity.
The left-hander now averages 97 mph on his fastball and touches 100. Paxton’s secondary pitches started to play up too as a result, with his cutter/slider becoming a real strikeout pitch.
Paxton is also pitching in a friendly park, on a Mariners team that increasingly seems to be emphasizing athleticism and defensive talent, as well as embracing the shift. Mike Zunino is a great framer who can easily steal an extra strike here and there, especially for a pitcher who can effectively pitch to the edges of the zone, as Paxton now seems able to.
With outfield additions Jarrod Dyson and Mitch Haniger both likely to be significantly above-average with the glove, and Leonys Martin already patrolling center, this looks to be a team that will give the pitching staff solid support in the field. A .348 BABIP also represents a relatively unlucky year for Paxton on balls in play, suggesting that his 3.79 ERA can come down quite a bit if he maintains these improvements.
The Risk
After getting to this point, it would be fair to ask why Paxton is at 193 in the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, and his ADP is not much higher at 178. Durability is the obvious place to start. Even though he is 28, last season’s 121 innings were comfortably a major-league high for Paxton, marking the first time since 2013 he’d gone over 100 innings at any level.
A range of injuries, most notably a lat strain that cost him much of 2014, have interrupted Paxton’s development. He escaped relatively unscathed in 2016, an elbow contusion from a line drive the most significant concern. Nonetheless, the notion of Paxton as a 200-inning, 32 start stalwart is still a little fanciful.
Hopefully, his new delivery and some good fortune can ensure that he provides a full season of MLB innings for Seattle and fantasy owners; the possibility that he won’t certainly still needs to be factored in. There’s also the relative lack of track record to consider, especially with this new, improved version of Paxton. He made adjustments to great success, but that doesn’t mean that MLB hitters won’t adjust back.
The good thing is that a 97 mph fastball from the left side is difficult for hitters to catch up to no matter how often they see it. The uncertainty lies in the fact that many teams in the league have still only seen this new Paxton once. The sheer quality of stuff suggests that this four months of success is replicable, but it’s no guarantee.
The Value
Even with the risk considered, Paxton looks a genuine bargain going at the back end of the top 200. It’s unwise to rely on him as an anchor in rotation; at that cost, he doesn’t need to be. Instead, he can be drafted as a fourth, fifth or even sixth starter with immense upside.
Paxton is exactly the kind of high upside pick in the later rounds that can provide league-winning value. Let’s hope the cost stays that low.
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Darius Austin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Darius, find his work at Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Banished to the Pen and Bat Flips & Nerds and follow him @DariusA64.
