Josh Bell carries a ton of upside into the 2017 season
The Pirates’ first baseman Josh Bell catapulted himself into fantasy relevance by sending a pinch-hit Grand Slam out of PNC Park against the Cubs on July 9. The switch-hitter went deep for a career-high 17 home runs in 2016 in 549 at-bats, split between Triple-A and the majors.
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He underwent left knee surgery at the start of February 2017 and is expected to be out of action for 2-to-4 weeks. His availability for Opening Day is in jeopardy but this may just serve to increase his value if owners become nervous about drafting an injured player.
Unlike so many other young sluggers, Josh Bell has exemplary control of the strike zone, with more walks than strikeouts in his brief 35-game stint in the majors and 1:1 walk to strikeout rate in the minors in 2015.
The Lineup
The 24-year-old is expected to be Pirates’ first baseman, batting second behind Josh Harrison and ahead of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco. Last season the Pirates were an above-average team in runs and RBI and top-10 with 155 stolen base attempts. The Pirates’ bench is projected to feature two veterans with first base experience (David Freese and John Jaso), so there will be plenty of opportunity for the switch-hitting Bell to be rested if he slumps or gets off to a slow start.
The Expectations
Due to his playing opportunity, Bell will start the season as one of the NL Rookie of the Year favorites. He is physically impressive with 25+ home run power, but he has yet to convert the potential into counting stats. In 2013 he hit 13 home runs, but this dipped to nine and then seven over the next two years, before peaking at 17 home runs last year.
The Value
According to the Zeile Consensus Projections, Bell is projected to slash .278/.349/.426 in 438 at-bats with 58 runs, 12 home runs, 58 RBI and four stolen bases. This does not represent the level of production you generally need from the corner infield slot. However, envision a scenario of 600 at-bats and suddenly it looks closer to stats you would expect from Eric Hosmer or Brandon Belt.
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Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or find him @_tramps.
