Is this the year we see a huge bump in power from Maikel Franco?

Maikel Franco entered his first full season in the big leagues with high expectations after posting 14 HR and a .280 AVG in 80 games in 2015. Only 23 years old at the start of the 2016 season he turned in an acceptable but ultimately disappointing season posting a .255 AVG with 67/25/88. The biggest fault in his 2016 season was the low AVG he displayed coming off 2015’s .280 mark. Franco has always had a high contact rate, but it is mostly driven by his overall aggressiveness (6.3% BB rate) as his swinging strike rate is high at 11.8% placing him 108^th out of 146 qualified hitters.

Given how frequently he puts the ball in play his average will be heavily dependent on his BABIP which fell from a normal/MLB average rate of .297 in 2015 to a somewhat unlucky .271 in 2016. We can’t necessarily expect a full return to league average BABIP at this point due to his high infield fly ball percentage and his heavy ground ball tilt (while lacking speed).

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A positive from the 2016 season is that his HR/FB has remained relatively stable over his first 800 AB in the MLB. In the second half of 2016 he improved his hard contact rate and managed to raise his LD%, but it came at the expense of his FB%.

As he continues to mature if he can get more lift on the ball and turn some GB into FB while his HR/FB maintains steady, he could easily see a jump to the 30-35 HR range which likely puts him inside the top 10 at 3B. With an improving team around him and a little more BABIP luck, it’s not hard to see the potential for a 75/30/95 season where he hits .280.

The Lineup

Speaking of the team around him, the Phillies’ lineup certainly didn’t do Franco any favors in 2016 scoring the fewest runs out of all 30 MLB teams. The Phillies lineup should be improved this season after the offseason additions of Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders who, if nothing else should be serviceable veterans. We can also expect the Phillies to call up some top prospects including one or all of J.P. Crawford, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Roman Quinn.

While the Phillies may not be world beaters in 2017, the improved offense should help to buoy Franco’s R/RBI output. He managed an impressive 88 RBI in 2016 despite being a member of the league’s worst offense. It wouldn’t be too shocking to see him top 100 RBI this year if he can stay healthy.

The Value

Currently, Franco is the No. 17 rated 3B and has an ADP of No. 139 and a consensus ranking of No. 148. Let’s take a look at a player that shares a very similar skill profile, Adam Jones.

Jones is being taken nearly 40 spots earlier in the draft at No. 106 in ADP while having a consensus rank of No. 88. While Jones certainly has a longer history of success on his side, the underlying skills are undeniably similar.

As you can see, they have similar numbers across the board, with the main exception being Franco’s struggles with IFFB. For fantasy purposes, Jones certainly benefits from his higher volume of AB as well as the better offensive team/players that surround him. However, Franco appears to be in the same range skill wise and is still young enough to have further upside.

Other than a minor advantage in R/RBI, Jones and Franco can be expected to post similar values in 2017, yet Franco is 60 spots lower in the consensus rankings and 33 slots lower in ADP. Pay for a 25 HR repeat with upside and a .265 AVG.

The Caution

While I like Franco for this season and believe his current draft position does provide good value it should be noted that there is a limit to his potential upside. Given his low BB% without a significantly high BABIP, he’s not likely to be an asset in OBP/AVG which will ultimately limit his run scoring potential. The lack of FB% limits his HR upside and to break out require not only an increase in his FB% but also an increase in his HR/FB.

He has a stable floor and at 24 years old does have room for growth but remember to temper expectations and not go overboard.  At his best, he has potential to crack the top 10 at 3B, but for now, that appears to be his ceiling until he improves his approach at the plate.

Check out all of our 2017 fantasy baseball player profiles

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