Do the White Sox have another future ace in their farm to pair with Giolito?

Since January of last year, several players have come from near-obscurity to well within the top 100 of most prospect lists. Eloy Jimenez is one such example, as are Mitch Keller and Yohander Mendez. In last year’s article, we were able to nail many of these types of prospects from Keller and Mendez to projecting Alex Reyes and Victor Robles to launch into top 10 and saying Triston McKenzie, Yadier Alvarez and Vlad Guerrero Jr. would become top 50 guys. Of course, there were some whiffs with Daz Cameron and Lucius Fox (although they have plenty of time to change that notion), but overall, we accomplished what we set out to do. Hopefully, we can have a similar success rate this year. First, I’ll start you off with the three names I expect to have the biggest breakouts, then three players who will soar into the consensus Top 20 by this time next year and finally three deep sleepers I expect to catch some helium and perhaps sneak into the top 100. At the bottom of the article, I’ve listed my top 25 breakout candidates and where their expert consensus ranking is currently among prospects.

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Biggest Breakouts

Luiz Gohara (SP, ATL)
This former international bonus baby had a very slow start to his stateside career, posting a 6.70 ERA over 49 innings in 2014 followed by a 5.54 in 63 innings two years ago.  Finally, last year, his command clicked and he began missing more bats, striking out 81 hitters in 69 innings to go with a sparkling 1.86 ERA despite being one of the youngest pitchers in the Midwest League. His current consensus ranking is 107 and I expect him to move into the top 50 this year and perhaps eventually the top 20.

Alec Hansen (SP, CHW)
Once considered a favorite to go first overall in the 2016 draft, Hansen had a rough season at the University of Oklahoma and saw his stock plummet him all the way to the second round. He then proceeded to sign with the White Sox and use his 6’7″ frame and blazing fastball to mow down 81 batters in 54 innings while allowing just 24 hits and 8 runs. This is the pitcher scouts once imagined he could be and it is only a matter of time before he gets the attention he deserves and vaults into the top 50. Perhaps one day he could be considered the top pitching prospect in baseball.

Andres Gimenez (SS, NYM)
This is another international bonus baby, but Gimenez is different than Gohara in that he only has one season under his belt and was superb. As a 17-year-old, the slender shortstop batted .350/.469/.523 over 275 PA. The homer run power isn’t quite there, but he did knock a double in 9% of his at-bats which bodes well for his future power game. The youngster is a legitimate five-tool talent, it only depends on whether or not he will be able to utilize those assets and become a consistent and mature ball player. If he does, we could be looking at another Amed Rosario coming up the pipeline for the Mets.

Leaping into the Top 20

Kevin Maitan (SS, ATL)
This is the second Braves prospect on the list and there are several more to come. It seems as though we hear about once-in-a-generation talent more often than once every 15 years, but when you think about the fact that Maitan is mentioned in the same breath as Bryce Harper, Miguel Cabrera, Ken Griffey and Chipper Jones, it makes you wonder why everyone is being so prudent about moving him up the lists. It is only a matter of time before he is a top 5 prospect, barring any big injury. There is just no way a talent like Maitan could fail to produce monster numbers.

Kolby Allard (SP, ATL)
This may not be the boldest call, as the expert consensus already grades him as the 39th overall prospect. Allard is another pitcher who was once being considered a top talent in the draft, but an injury dropped him to the Braves at #14 overall. He came back to the mound last season, tossing 87 innings with nearly 10 Ks per 9 and there is plenty more to come as he continues to recover from his injury. Yes, there is risk with a young pitcher who has already undergone the knife, but the ceiling is that of a bonafide ace in fantasy baseball and real life.

Isan Diaz (SS/2B, MIL)
In 2015, the small middle infielder snuck up on people by batting .360/.436/.640 in Rookie Ball. Say what you want about his size, but he profiles as a power hitter, who oh by the way, can swipe some bags too. Diaz started off slowly over the first two months of last year with a .599 OPS, but finished up by going .949 over his final 87 games. The 20-year-old should solidify his standing as a future middle of the order second basemen this season and launch forward in the rankings quickly.

Deeper Favorites

Kyle Muller (SP, ATL)
Here is another case of the Braves taking a chance on an elite talent who fell to them. This time, it was to the second round and for fear of not signing. The 6’6″ lefty may have gone in the top 5 otherwise, and proved that ability by allowing just 2 runs and 14 hits in 27 innings while striking out 38 hitters. The 19-year-old should follow a similar path to Triston McKenzie and could be well within the top 50 prospects two years from now.

Michael Matuella (SP, TEX)
While the 2015 draft class was on the weaker side, it is still impressive to have once been considered to have enough talent to go first overall in any draft. Matuella is a 6’6″ righty who had Tommy John surgery and fell to the 3rd round as a result. The Rangers gladly scooped him up and are seeing him get in the best shape of his life. He may not dominate right away, as finding your command after TJ is always a task, but if the recovery goes well, he could end up similar to Jeff Hoffman or even Lucas Giolito in the prospect world.

Randy Arozarena (OF/2B, STL)
The Cardinals signed a number of high-end talent from last year’s international class, so any of those names could have appeared here, but it is Arozarena who stands out because of his polish and raw tools. When you watch video of the 21-year-old dominating in Cuba at an even younger age, the talent is mouth watering. He has the build and tools of an all-pro running back or NBA point guard along with the coordination to put together a quality batting average in the Big Leagues. If he had grown up in America, he would have been a high-end first round pick, so expect him to earn the ranking in his first minor league season this year.

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25 Breakout Prospects for 2017

Thanks for reading. Here is some of my other MLB work:

Top 10 Fantasy Sleepers
Sophomore Dynasty Prospect Rankings
MLB Top International Prospects
MLB Top Amateur Prospects
Top 25 Fantasy Players in 2022

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