Even the most casual fantasy baseball auction player knows a few rules to live by: Make sure you spend all your money. Always check Twitter during your breaks to make sure there haven’t been any major injuries since you got started. And buy the auctioneer breakfast so he or she speeds up the countdown a bit when you’re about to win a player. But one of the most important rules of all is to have a list of $1 players written out in advance of your auction. Seriously, after four or five hours of furious bidding and readjusting spreadsheets, it’s a miracle any of us can see straight during the final few buys of a fantasy baseball auction. It is critical that you have your end game mapped out before walking into the auction room.
Your list of $1 targets should be a mix of players. Certainly, you’ll want to have the guys with tons of upside who have the potential to be difference-makers, but who you aren’t really planning to rely on. But also, if you’re in a mixed league, you’d be surprised at how many low-cost players can go on to be big contributors for your team. I had an auction last year that felt like it was going really rough, but cheap buys at the end of the auction such as Marcel Ozuna wound up making all the difference. So, you’ll also want a list of solid players who, though cheap, you still feel confident can help your team right out of the auction.
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So, let’s take a look at some cheap players you’ll want to keep an eye on to fill out your roster at the end of your fantasy baseball auction. I’ve used the FantasyPros auction calculator (as should you!) to determine the $1-$2 player pool, using a standard 23-man roster (14 hitters, 9 pitchers):
The Guys with Upside
Robbie Ray (SP – ARI)
Ray is everyone’s favorite sleeper right now, and if he has a decent spring, he’ll probably be more expensive than a $1-$2 buy. But, if he struggles a bit, he’ll be the perfect guy to target. Ray struck out 218 batters and had an 11.25 K/9 mark last year, behind only the late, great Jose Fernandez. Got that? Randy Johnson had a career K/9 of 10.6. Pedro Martinez – 10.0. Nolan Ryan – 9.5. So, it’s not a stretch to say that Ray has elite strikeout stuff. Obviously, Ray also has some major warts. He had a 4.90 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP last season. And he has a career walk rate of 3.6/9. In other words, Robbie Ray may actually be Wild Thing Ricky Vaughn. You tell me if you’ve ever seen them in the same place at the same time, ok? But seriously, there’s big time room for growth here. Putting aside that Ray is just 25 and still figuring things out, he was actually pretty unlucky last year. He had a FIP of just 3.71 last year, and led the league with an outrageous .352 BABIP-against. With A.J. Pollock healthy, the outfield defense should be better. And, frankly, if his luck simply regresses to the mean, he should be vastly improved. Even if he struggles this spring, make sure to keep him in mind.
Jason Heyward (OF – CHC)
Absent a monstrous spring, I’m going to have a ridiculous number of shares of Jason Heyward this season. No, I can’t come close to defending what happened to him offensively last season. He was every bit as bad as his numbers indicate. But come on. He’s 27 years old, he was an elite prospect, and he’s had several solid offensive seasons in the Major Leagues. Guys like that don’t suddenly lose it completely. Here’s the best I can say. Heyward was truly awful offensively last year – a negative WAR player with a measly .306 OBP. He was benched in plenty of games. And yet he still found his way to 61 runs, 49 RBI, and 11 steals. Heyward has revamped his swing, and the pressure is off since the Cubs won the World Series. He was a 6th-round draft pick in fantasy leagues last season. If he’s even remotely competent, he can fall into 85 runs and 75 RBI in that lineup. You want a guy you can nab for next to nothing and who could pay off big? Here you go.
Blake Snell (SP – TBR)
Grab some Robbie Ray, take off some MLB experience, and add in a little more of an elite pedigree and you’ve pretty much got yourself Blake Snell. Like Ray, Snell had an extremely solid strikeout rate (9.9/9) in 2016. And, like Ray, Snell had a ridiculously high WHIP (1.61) and walk rate (5.2/9). Somehow, however, Snell got away with it. He finished the season with just a 3.54 ERA, and had an even better FIP of 3.39. And a big part of that was that he allowed just a 27% line drive rate, second lowest among starters. No one doubts Snell’s stuff. It’s just a matter of whether he can finally harness his control and stop nibbling around the plate. If he does, you’ll have a guy who can be an elite starter, and you can get him at the end of your auction for next to nothing.
Other names to keep in mind
Based on the average of current projection systems, FantasyPros has both Mike Napoli and Jose Peraza as being $1 players. Almost certainly, now that Napoli has signed with the Rangers and Brandon Phillips‘ move to the Nationals has opened up everyday playing time for Peraza, both players will be worth more than $1 by next week. But, if not, those are obvious guys to target. Also, Jonathan Gray has all the stuff in the world and can be useful in Colorado, but if he somehow makes his way out of there, watch out. Great guy to stash for $1.
The Guys Who Can Help You
Yasmany Tomas (OF/1B – ARI)
I recently drafted Rick Porcello as like the 30th pitcher off the board in the FantasyPros Expert Points League draft. And even at that spot, I took some heat in the chat room. To me, that’s an example of the hate having gone too far. That’s when the fantasy community sees a player’s previous year as being unsustainable and, in response, drops him down WAY further than he needs to be. That’s what I feel like has happened with Tomas. I know last year represented a power spike for a lot of players, but the 31 homers Tomas hit are nothing to sneeze at. Tomas is just 26 years old, plays in a fantastic hitters’ park, and bats in the middle of a solid lineup. He may not hit 31 home runs again (though he MIGHT, and I think some of the projection systems are selling him way low at the 18 or so he’s getting pegged with), but either way, he’s a guy who isn’t going to hurt you anywhere and should provide decent production pretty much everywhere but steals. Sometimes, in rotisserie leagues, it’s just about making sure that everyone on your roster is showing up and giving you something. And for $1 at the end of your auction, Tomas really will fit that bill perfectly.
Carlos Beltran (OF – HOU)
The hate on Beltran is a little more understandable, but just a little. Sure, Beltran will turn 40 years old this season and did most of his damage in Yankee Stadium last season. That’s fine. But he’s still productive, will bat in a great home park and in the middle of an awesome lineup, and will basically be a strict DH. Absent injury, Beltran will be productive, without a doubt, and he’s exactly the type of guy that no one wants but who can be a valuable contributor to your team.
Hector Neris (RP – PHI)
Neris kind of fits both categories. He’s got very solid statistics as a reliever, so could help your ERA, WHIP, and strikeout numbers. But he also could wind up being a top-10 closer. Pete Mackanin did savvy fantasy owners a favor naming Jeanmar Gomez as the presumptive closer. There’s a Lloyd Christmas-esque “one in a million” chance that Gomez is going to be able to hold that job for more than a month or two. Neris has shown he has the stuff to close, and with the Phillies still at least a year or two from competing, it makes sense to give him the shot to seize the job permanently. If Gomez is still the closer as the season nears, draft Neris with one of your last dollars. He’ll help your peripherals even if he’s not the closer and, if (when) Gomez loses the job, you’ll have yourself a potential top closer on your roster.
Other names to keep in mind
Nick Castellanos had a nice little breakout year before his injury, and Yangervis Solarte quietly developed power to go along with his solid batting average. And hey, I’m not targeting Jacoby Ellsbury, but he’s basically going undrafted at this point. Steals are steals, my friends.
Learn about the differences between H2H Categories and Points Leagues
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Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
