Don’t expect a huge resurgence in stolen bases from Manny Machado

Several variables come into play when attempting to project stolen base production; speed, health, skill, and context all deserve consideration. It’s imperative to weigh each of these factors, but ultimately prolific base stealers are the product of opportunity.

Players succeed at different rates, but generally speaking, more opportunities equate to more stolen bases. Understanding that opportunity plays a critical role in projecting stolen bases, I set out in an attempt to answer the question, “Can we quantify a manager’s aggressiveness on the base paths to more accurately project stolen base opportunities?”

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Observing Correlations

Statistical analysis seeking a correlation with stolen base attempts uncovered two key findings.

The first is that success breeds opportunity. Among the data points measured, success rate had the strongest relationship to stolen base attempts. Efficient base stealers receive subsequent opportunities to run whether it in the form of a “green light” or signal from the dugout. Paul Goldschmidt swiped 32 bases in 37 attempts in 2016.

Had opposing catchers cut him down more frequently, Goldschmidt’s opportunities would have decreased. But with an 86% success rate, the Diamondbacks had every reason to keep sending him.

That isn’t aggressive; it’s smart. For this reason, merely tallying up stolen base attempts isn’t an accurate measure of a manager’s aggressiveness.

The second finding was that differing offensive philosophies have a notable impact on stolen base attempts. Some clubs play small ball to manufacture runs, whereas others are content staying put and waiting for the three-run homer. Interestingly, the second strongest correlation with stolen base attempts was the sacrifice bunt.

Sacrifice bunts, like stolen bases, are one of the several avenues a manager can take to manufacture a run. If a manager would give away an out to advance ninety feet, he’ll likely risk an out to advance ninety feet. By that measure, sacrifice bunts provide some insight into a club’s offensive philosophy. Regression analysis revealed that these two statistics explained 59% of a manager’s stolen base tendencies in 2016.

Defining Efficiency & Measuring Aggressiveness

Efficient base stealers should receive subsequent opportunities to run, but what defines an efficient base stealer? Logically, lineups that hit for power should be less inclined to risk making outs on the base paths. Contrarily, teams that struggle to score should be aggressive to manufacture runs in ways that don’t require extra base hits.

Each team has a unique “break even” point in regards to success rate, but the difference between the sluggers and slappers is negligible. For the sake of uniformity, I based my work off the league average break-even point of 69%.

Assuming efficient base stealers (70%+ success rate) should be granted continued opportunities to run, the way managers deploy suboptimal base stealers may provide insight into their actual level of aggressiveness. A compilation of data for all 30 clubs revealed how each manager handled their inefficient base stealers.

Their stolen base attempts relative to opportunities shed light on which managers rolled the dice and those who played it safe. Stolen base opportunities were defined as (1B+BB+HBP).

Here is a look at the three most aggressive and most conservative teams by how often they sent suboptimal base stealers.

Now, let’s explore a few players who may see their stolen base production increase or decrease in 2017 due to a change in scenery.

Risers

Josh Reddick (OF – HOU)
The 29-year-old outfielder inked a 4-year deal with the Houston Astros where he should slot in as their everyday right fielder. Reddick has swiped 41 bases in 786 career games, but a 79% career success rate suggests room for growth. He stole eight bases last year despite splitting time between the A’s and the Dodgers who were two of the five most conservative teams.

As the third most aggressive skipper in baseball last year, A.J. Hinch sent George Springer, Jake Marisnick and Marwin Gonzalez on 14% of stolen base opportunities despite combing for a 60% success rate. Reddick warrants that degree of opportunity which could equate to twenty attempts. Barring a philosophical change, Reddick may record 15 steals, blowing past his current consensus projection of six.

Jose Peraza (2B/SS/OF – CIN)
Peraza didn’t change uniforms, but Cincinnati’s stolen base tendencies justified highlighting the young speed demon. The Reds were running fools in 2016, and I mean that quite literally.

Inefficient base stealers converted just 61% of their attempts yet ran on 14% of opportunities. Peraza took off on 40% of his chances which led to 21 steals in less than a half season.

Even after working in OBP regression, I don’t see a scenario Peraza only swipes 27 bases in 423 at bats as his projection infers. I’d pay for 35 steals and could see him flirting with 50 if he staves off some BABIP regression while playing every night.

Eric Thames (OF – MIL)
Thames spent the last three seasons tearing the cover off KBO baseballs to the tune of a .347/.448/.714 triple slash. It’s the 124 long balls that grabbed the Brewers’ attention, but Thames flashed some speed averaging 21 stolen bases a year overseas.

He was never a speed threat in the states but finds himself thrust into one of baseball’s most aggressive lineups. No team attempted more stolen bases than the Brew Crew, and only the Reds sent ineffective base stealers with more regularity.

Thames is a polarizing player in fantasy circles this offseason. Some projections translate his KBO numbers to instant major league success while others think he’ll struggle to readjust. His 2017 production is a bit of a mystery, but if you buy his hitting skills, you have to buy the stolen bases.

This is a club that let Kirk Nieuwenhuis, owner of a 47% success rate, run on 18% of his opportunities. If the Brewers grant Thames the same leniency, he could attempt 25 steals this season and should surpass his current consensus projection of 13 SB.

Fallers

Logan Forsythe (2B- LAD)
The Dodgers and Twins inability to close a Brian Dozier deal ultimately led to the acquisition of former Ray, Logan Forsythe. Since becoming an everyday player in 2015, Forsythe has pinched 15 bases in 25 attempts for a lackluster 60% success rate.

Opposing catchers gunned down the 30-year-old in half of his 12 attempts last year, so he was better off staying put. The Rays didn’t mind running into outs as they let their incapable unit of base stealers run 6% of the time despite a 48% success rate.

The Dodgers don’t play that game. Bad base stealers were given the green light in just 3% of their opportunities, the fifth-lowest mark in baseball. Forsythe has demonstrated he’s not a good base stealer, which doesn’t bode well for his consensus projection of seven stolen bases in 2017.

He will be lucky to attempt, let alone steal seven bases. I’d pay for two or three and count my blessings if the Dodgers give him an opportunity to surpass that.

Jay Bruce (OF – NYM)
Nobody is drafting Jay Bruce for his wheels, but if you’re counting on a half dozen steals to meet your Draft Day targets, think again. Reds manager, Bryan Price, sent his poor base stealers at four times the clip of Terry Collins which kept Bruce SB-relevant before the trade deadline.

He didn’t attempt a single stolen base in 50 games as a Met which begs the question “where are the six stolen bases coming from in his projections?” Cutting four or five steals out of Bruce’s forecast won’t send him plummeting down draft boards, but you should realize he may give you a goose egg in the speed department.

Manny Machado (3B/SS – BAL)
The Baltimore Orioles attempted a measly 32 stolen bases last year, far and away the fewest in the major leagues. One look at their 59% success rate explains why Buck Showalter abandoned the running game altogether. Whether it by design or happenstance, the Orioles assembled a roster of lead-footed mashers who led baseball with a .188 team ISO.

Machado followed up on his 2015 breakout campaign with 37 homers, 105 runs scored and 94 batted in. Still, one can’t help to think he was a disappointment for some fantasy owners.

Drafted as a five category contributor, Machado finished 20 stolen bases shy of his 2015 mark with zero. Nada. Machado, like the rest of the O’s, flat out stopped running.

The consensus anticipates a speed rebound, crediting him for eight stolen bases. His projection resembles an average of his career stolen bases (30) spread across what amounts to four seasons (608 games). It’s tough to write off a guy who recently showed he could lift 20 bags in a year, but little in Machado’s profile or the Orioles offensive tendencies suggest he’s going to run again.

A 63% career success rate implies he’s not a good base stealer, and Showalter limited ineffective base stealers to 14 attempts in 604 opportunities. If Machado only takes off in 2% of his opportunities, he won’t approach anywhere near eight stolen bases. There are plenty of reasons to invest a high pick in Manny Machado, but stolen bases are not likely one of them.

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Chris Bragg is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive or follow him @loosemoose6.