Here’s a look at a few recent happenings around baseball and the resulting things fantasy owners need to know.
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Brandon Phillips Finally Waives No-Trade Clause
The Atlanta Braves recently acquired 35-year-old second baseman Brandon Phillips from the Reds in exchange for a couple of minor league arms. The change of scenery doesn’t bode well for Phillips’ fantasy prospects for several reasons.
According to FanGraphs park factors, the Great American Ballpark tied with Coors Field for the best place for righties to homer. We don’t know how the Braves’ new SunTrust Park will play, but the dimensions are comparable to Turner Field. If it does indeed play similarly, Phillips is moving from the best place for him to launch homers to the ninth worst. At this rate, a double-digit home run tally is in jeopardy.
Phillips realized a resurgence in his SB production under Reds’ skipper, Bryan Price who was arguably the most aggressive manager in baseball last year. While the Braves aren’t afraid to run, Phillips being another year older and playing under a more conservative manager puts his double-digit steals projection at risk as well.
His consensus projection of .282/54/9/50/11 is a reasonable expectation. He’s currently going as the 30th second baseman off the board which means he’s likely undrafted outside of NL-only formats. Despite his inexpensive price tag, I’m inclined to speculate on a Kolten Wong rebound or Ryan Schimpf’s power over an aging veteran in a downgraded offensive environment.
Phillips’ departure clears the way for Jose Peraza to play every night in Cincinnati where he should push the 40 stolen base threshold. However, beware of the dreaded 8th spot in an NL lineup that could sap Peraza’s value outside of batting average and stolen base contributions.
Alex Reyes to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Highly-touted Cardinals pitching prospect, Alex Reyes, will go under the knife after an MRI revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. Given the timing of the news, the procedure will knock the 22-year-old flame thrower out for 2017 and presumably much of the 2018 season.
The loss of Reyes all but guarantees a rotation spot for Michael Wacha who is currently the 106th starting pitcher off the board, according to our consensus ADP. Surely, a rotation spot would propel him up draft boards, but he still isn’t a guy I’m reaching for in fantasy leagues.
Since suffering a shoulder injury in 2014, Wacha has posted below average strikeout numbers en route to a 3.88 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. His Swinging Strike rate has trended downward every season since his brilliant 60-inning rookie showcase, leaving little reason to expect a resurgence.
Kauffman isn’t the Answer for Jason Hammel
Even after leaving Coors Field, Hammel has been plagued by the long ball. Over the last three seasons, mostly as a Cub, the right-hander has allowed 13% of his fly balls to go for homers. Many believe the move to the homer-suppressing Kauffman Stadium will finally cure Hammel’s Gopher-itis. While this may be true, Hammel finds himself in a worse fantasy situation than he left in Chicago. The deep power alleys contain a few would-be homers, but Kauffman’s park factor of 103 qualifies as the 6th most hitter-friendly park in baseball.
Additionally, Hammel not only loses the benefit of facing the pitcher each time through the order, but he’s also no longer backed by baseball’s best defense. The Royals are an elite defensive unit, but nobody defended like the Cubs last year, who helped their pitchers shave more than a half run off their ERA in comparison to their Fielding Independent Pitching metrics.
Perhaps Hammel’s biggest hit will be trading elite pitch framers like Miguel Montero and David Ross for the stone hands of Sal Perez. Cubs’ backstops stole nearly a strike per outing for their starting pitchers. Perez, on the other hand, is among the worst pitch framers in baseball. The difference could cost Hammel 1.5 calls per game. That may sound negligible but would increase his ERA by about 10% over a full season.
If you’re wondering why Hammel’s consensus projection leaves a lot to be desired, this is why. He’s currently going at pick 101 among starting pitchers which is still too early. If you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel for arms at the end of your draft, you can do better than Hammel.
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Chris Bragg is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive or follow him @loosemoose6.
