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Spring Training: 3 Things You Need to Know (2/24)

Spring Training: 3 Things You Need to Know (2/24)

Here’s a look at a few recent happenings around baseball and the resulting things fantasy owners need to know.

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Reds to Deploy Closer by Committee

Reds skipper, Bryan Price, has outlined his plan to roll out a committee to close ball games in 2017. While I commend him for breaking the mold of unnecessary bullpen roles, it creates a messy situation for fantasy owners.

The simple solution is to run the other way from this pen entirely. However, deep leaguers may need to take a shot at handicapping this situation to acquire potential ninth inning value.

The four names for consideration are Raisel Iglesias, Drew Storen, Michael Lorenzen and Tony Cingrani. Cingrani led baseball’s worst bullpen with 17 saves last year but figures to be the low man on the totem pole. His woefully unimpressive 7 K/9 and 5.27 xFIP was hands down, the worst of the bunch.

Additionally, he projects as the lone lefty in the Cincinnati pen. The Reds will struggle to get to the ninth with a lead, and when they do, I imagine they’ll have already called upon Cingrani’s services to retire an opposing lefty.

As for the rest of the trio, it appears to be wide open. Michael Lorenzen stood out in 2016, riding a 96 MPH heater to a 2.88 ERA backed by a 3.10 xFIP. Even if the 25-year-old is their best option, it will behoove the Reds to keep him out of the ninth as to not drive up his arbitration cost down the road when they intend to compete.

Raisel Iglesias made five starts last year before moving to the pen where he posted a 1.98 ERA in 50 innings. Price expressed his desire for multi-inning outings, indicating a continuation of Iglesias’ usage who went multiple innings in 17 of 32 relief appearances.

Iglesias’ success may result in a similar approach where he’s deployed in high-leverage situations as the bridge to the ninth inning. Cincinnati may very well envision Iglesias in an Andrew Miller-esque role that’s ideal for his innings contribution, but not for his save potential.

The final candidate is newcomer Drew Storen who may be the guy to own out of the gate. The 29-year-old battled injuries last year as he struggled to a 5.23 ERA, but wasn’t as bad as that number suggests. His 4.06 xFIP under those conditions lead me to believe he can bounce back and have a solid season.

I believe Price when he says he will enter the year with a committee, yet one can’t help but wonder why the Reds, who won’t compete in 2017, signed the former closer in the first place. Cincinnati’s only real return on the Storen investment would come in whatever he could land them at the trade deadline.

Storen’s trade value would benefit from ninth inning work and increase their chance of turning him into a useful asset for the future. Keep in mind this scenario could mean Storen loses his saves potential come August 1 should he land a setup role on a contending team with an established closer.

Wieters Finally Lands a Job

Former Oriole Matt Wieters recently inked a two-year, $21MM deal with the Washington Nationals where he’ll take over as the primary catcher. Wieters’ acquisition likely spells the end of Derek Norris in Washington, at least per Dusty Baker who implied the Nationals would trade the former Padre.

According to our consensus ADP, Wieters is currently the 14th catcher off the draft board, and I could see him moving up a few spots now that he has a job. He’s gone as high as pick 123 in NFBC drafts, and frankly, that’s absurd.

The veteran backstop rebounded for 17 homers last year after playing in 101 games in 2014 and 2015 combined. Nonetheless, Wieters is on the wrong side of 30 and three years removed from his prime where he eclipsed the 20-homer mark three consecutive seasons. Gone are the days where Wieters calls 140+ games while flirting with 600 plate appearances.

Wieters faces the challenge of producing with less opportunity, while simultaneously leaving one of the hitter-friendliest parks in baseball. According to 2015 park factors, Camden Yards was the fifth best place to launch homers, considerably ahead of Nationals Park who resided at 20th.

Consensus projections figure Wieters to hit .250 with 14 long balls, 42 runs and 54 batted in. I’m pretty much in agreement with the crowd and don’t have a problem with him as the 14th catcher off the board. But if you’re thinking about being the guy that’s taking him at pick 123, ahead of options like J.T. Realmuto, Salvador Perez and Yasmani Grandal — maybe reconsider.

Michael Brantley Still Ailing

The defending American League champion Indians remain optimistic about their All-Star left fielder who has essentially been sidelined since 2015 with a bum shoulder. However, as the calendar approaches March, Brantley doesn’t appear anywhere near game ready.

Before scratching Brantley off my draft board, I checked in with a respected baseball mind and the ultimate Indians resource, Adam Burke (@skatingtripods). When asked about Brantley’s outlook Adam stated, “My guess is that he is done. I’m not expecting anything from him at all. He’s done some tee work, and he’s been tracking pitches, but I honestly don’t see anything from him.”

Adam has no affiliation with the Indians, who remain confident in Brantley’s return, but that was disheartening to read as a fan of the game. I hate to see a player like Brantley derailed by a fluke injury. I hope Adam is wrong — and I’m sure he does too. But the outlook just doesn’t look good for Brantley.

The prospect of a comeback has fantasy owners drafting him as the 50th outfielder off the board and 184th overall. That’s not a steep price in a shallow league in hopes to cash in on a healthy rebound. However, it’s ahead of guys like Nomar Mazara, Joc Pederson and Keon Broxton to name a few. In deeper leagues featuring a scarce waiver wire, you’re probably better off letting someone else gamble on what appears a losing wager.

Should Brantley’s shoulder keep him out of the lineup, that could create an opportunity for another Indian to step into fantasy relevancy. Roster Resource currently projects a couple of outfield platoons with Austin Jackson and Tyler Naquin splitting time in center field and Lonnie Chisenhall sharing right field with Brandon Guyer.

Between Guyer, Naquin and Jackson, the Tribe may have left-handed pitchers covered. Guyer is a notorious lefty masher boasting a 149 wRC+ over the past three seasons, while Jackson has handled lefties respectably (98 wRC+) throughout his career. And Naquin, albeit over 40 plate appearances, managed a near 1:1 K:BB ratio and a .775 OPS vs. southpaws in 2016.

Naquin burst onto the scene last year hitting .296 with 14 homers and six swipes in 365 plate appearances. An entirely unsustainable .411 BABIP masked a 31% strikeout rate that could be his downfall. Additionally, Pitchers appeared to have figured him out as the season progressed as he hit just .234 with a .662 OPS in August and September.

Still, with the proper adjustments and a full slate of playing time, Naquin could produce upper teens homers with double-digit steals and 60+ runs and RBI. In that case, there’s value to be had in what is currently costing around the 340th pick.

The larger impact of Brantley’s absence would be the void created in left field versus right-handers as only Naquin and Chisenhall profile well against them. This could open the door for an under the radar AL-only bat in Abraham Almonte.

Since 2015, the 27-year-old has made strides against righties hitting .252 with a near league average walk rate and surprising .171 ISO. Should Almonte get playing time on the strong side of a left field platoon, he could deliver eight homers with 17 stolen bases and 70 runs scored.


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Chris Bragg is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive or follow him @loosemoose6.

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