The consensus top two players in fantasy, Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, are both outfielders, and with their power/speed dynamism, these two players in many ways typify the appeal of outfield production. This promise of across-the-board output makes top-flight outfielders some of the most precious assets in fantasy, but at times it also makes the market for outfielders overly aggressive, with several players being priced as if they are guaranteed to repeat their recent strong performances. Here are five outfield-eligible players who seem too overpriced at their current average draft position (ADP) to account for potential regression.

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Starling Marte (OF – PIT)
The perennially nicked-up Pirates’ center fielder played only 129 games in 2016, but when he was active, he was electric, tallying career-best marks in batting average (.311) and stolen bases (47). That steals total is likely responsible for his current status as a second-round asset per ADP data, but one has to wonder if his .380 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), tied for seventh highest in the majors, isn’t bound to regress in 2017. Granted, there is some hope that Marte’s subdued 8.4 percent homer-per-fly rate (HR/FB%) will correct, but even so, it’s hard not to treat Marte’s 19-homer campaign in 2015, buoyed by an 18.6 HR/FB%, as the outlier rather than the baseline expectation.

Assuming low-teens in homers at best, a version of Marte that settles closer to his career .289 batting average will certainly need another 40-plus steal output to recoup anywhere close to second round value. It’s a tight rope to walk for a player who always seems to be laboring with minor injuries, so risk averse fantasy owners who want a stable early round offensive foundation should shop elsewhere.

George Springer (OF – HOU)
After Springer had lost a good chunk of 2015 to a wrist injury, it was a relief for the Astros and fantasy owners alike to see the dynamic young outfielder play all 162 games of the 2016 season. That consistent playing time atop the Houston lineup helped him amass 116 runs scored, tied for sixth-highest across the majors. Still, considering Springer’s super-prospect pedigree, it seems like a minor bummer that he managed under 40 combined homers and steals even as he lead the majors with 744 at-bats last year.

Springer has clearly given back some of his power potential while working to eliminate the contact issues that saw him tally an unsightly 18.6 percent swinging strike rate during his rookie half-season in 2014. He’s cut that rate substantially in each of the past two years (13.9, 12.4, respectively), but during that time he’s also seen his near-40 percent hard hit rate from that rookie campaign crater to under 34 percent.

At this point, it does seem unlikely that Springer will approach the upper edge of his power/speed upside without representing the batting average liability that has pushed players like Chris Davis and Todd Frazier much further down draft boards. And what if the hope of a juggernaut 30/30 season from Springer is a mere pipe dream? In any case, fantasy owners who pony up a third round pick for Springer better hope that the young outfielder plays another 162 this season.

David Dahl (OF – COL)
Perhaps it’s bad form to pile on a player whose stressed sixth rib has been one of the more discouraging story lines of Spring Training. To be fair, Dahl’s draft stock has fallen outside of the top 100 as his availability to open the season with the Rockies remains in question. Still, this injury isn’t the only thing that makes Dahl a worrisome asset for 2017.

Before his rib woes, Dahl was being drafted as if 20 homers and 15-plus steals on a .300 batting average was money in the bank based on his productive partial season with the Rockies last year. But bear in mind that Dahl’s .404 BABIP across a limited 2016 sample has no real precedent in his minor league profile, at least not since he tore it up against muted competition in Low-A.

Dahl’s above-average swinging strike rate and below-average contact rate also seem worrisome, indicating that he could have a fairly bleak batting average floor. It’s easy to get pumped on a young hitter who will play half his games at Coors, but considering the regression concerns as well as the air of injury risk, this year it might be wise to opt for a less volatile asset in Dahl’s price range.

Jose Peraza (2B/SS/OF – CIN)
The speedy Peraza, who stole 21 bases in 72 games last year, seems poised to assume an everyday role atop the Reds’ lineup, so there’s some major helium for the young utility man heading into 2017 drafts. And with Peraza off to a hot start in Spring Training, the hype shows no sign of letting up. He’s the 40th outfielder off the board (and 150th overall) in the FantasyPros ADP aggregate, and the sharp drafters in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) like him even more, drafting him inside of the overall top 120 on average.

To make good on this sort of investment, Peraza will probably need to repeat the .361 BABIP that carried him to a .324 batting average last season. On the one hand, his 1.5 grounder-to-fly rate combined with his plus speed profile makes it, so a high BABIP isn’t exactly a red flag. Then again, his plate discipline profile shows an extremely aggressive approach, with above average swing rates in and out of the zone. Peraza did make good on this approach with an 87.1 percent contact rate overall, and if you’re paying a premium for him in drafts, you’re counting on Peraza remaining just short of elite in terms of contact and swinging strike rate.

But with only 80 Major League games on his resume, we’re not anywhere near a normalized sample for Peraza. If his plate skills regress, he could very well lose playing time, and over-eager drafters might wonder if they would have been better off waiting for bargain bin steals specialists like Ben Revere and Travis Jankowski much later in their drafts.

Byron Buxton (OF – MIN)
Like Peraza, Buxton is not a player to avoid outright, but rather one to avoid over-paying for. Much hay has been made over Buxton’s final month of 2016, with the top prospect tallying a 1.011 on base plus slugging (OPS) across 113 plate appearances and thus priming the pump for a long-awaited full-season breakout in 2017.

But the troubling tendencies that made Buxton such a letdown in his previous MLB stints still appeared to be in play during that terrific final month, with the young outfielder striking out once every third at bat over that stretch while tallying less-than-stellar line drive and hard hit rates.

On top of that, Buxton’s suspiciously high 36-percent homer-to-fly mark doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that his power breakout is guaranteed to repeat. As a fifth outfielder, the young Twin phenom certainly makes for a strong high-upside buy. But asking anything more from the unproven Buxton might set fantasy owners up for more disappointment.

• 10 Middle Relievers to Target
• Six RP-Eligible Starters to Target
• 10 Low-Cost Hard Hitters to Target
• 5 Bounce-Back Infielders to Target
• 5 Bounce-Back Outfielders to Target
• 5 Bounce-Back Pitchers to Target
• 5 Negative Regression Infielders to Avoid

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Tom Whalen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tom, check out his archive or follow him @drillguitar.