Skip to main content

6 Players Worth Reaching For (Fantasy Baseball)

6 Players Worth Reaching For (Fantasy Baseball)

Put on your Inspector Gadget hats, folks. Or embody your inner Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, whatever reach metaphor you’d like to roll with. “Reaching” is typically a term thrown around as an insult in draft rooms, with the term fueling roast sessions where someone is seen as making an errant selection due to losing out on profit and comments such as, “you could’ve just gotten that guy in two rounds!” Here’s the thing, you don’t always know how early is too early until the opportunity has passed. Just like Olaf from Frozen said, “Some players are worth reaching for.” What do you mean that’s not the quote? Okay, okay, let’s just get into it.

Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator partner-arrow

Yu Darvish (SP – TEX) – Average ADP: 40.5

We’ve got the SP10 here with an overall ADP of 40 despite Darvish’s arm housing Scherzer-like talent. The issue here is the durability perception, but this is still a guy who has toed the rubber every time outside of that big ol’ Tommy John surgery. Even though he missed all of 2015 and some of ’16 on the comeback trail, he skipped over all of the ugly, rusty parts of getting back in the groove. He showcased the best control of his career (7.5% BB rate) as well as improved velocity – a fastball around 95 mph and the slider sitting around 83-84 mph. While we shouldn’t automatically assume this is the norm for Darvish moving forward, it should mean that we can write off a dip in performance as well. It wasn’t long ago when he was being selected as the SP2 behind Clayton Kershaw, and if he can throw roughly 190 innings then 225 strikeouts and premier ratios are on tap. Don’t feel bad about reaching for a discounted ace here.

Edwin Diaz (RP – SEA) – Average ADP: 93.3

There are very few conceivable formats where one wouldn’t want the most strikeout bang-for-your-buck. Out of all qualified relievers in 2016, Diaz and his 15.33 K/9 finished second only to Dellin Betances (15.53). The next closest would be Kimbrel’s 14.09 mark, though Diaz’s 2.61 BB/9 was nearly half of Kimbrel’s 5.09 rate. Diaz is also going four slots below Kimbrel as per our ADP report, and Seattle’s flamethrowing youngster is the ninth RP off of the board. Diaz and his 1.88 xFIP was also a notch above Aroldis Chapman (1.92), Zach Britton (2.09) and Kenley Jansen (2.41). His elite numbers came despite a .377 BABIP, largely due to his two-pitch repertoire – though it’s one hell of an arsenal. His fastball sits around 98 mph, with the ability to hit triple digits, alongside a wipeout slider that yielded an astounding 57.06% whiffs-per-swing rate — third-best out of all pitchers. Get yourself a true RP1 here.

Addison Russell (SS – CHC) – Average ADP: 124.3

Russell may not be in that upper echelon of shortstops yet, but he doesn’t deserve to be 61 slots behind the SS8 in Jean Segura (#62 overall ADP) with the likes of Eduardo Nunez, Aledmys Diaz and Troy Tulowitzki. The Cubbies’ SS had already logged 1,000 at-bats before the age of 23 and showed dramatic improvements in his second year, mostly in the power and plate discipline departments. His ISO shot up from .147 to .179 as he socked 21 homers while lowering his strikeout rate from 28.5% to 22.6%. Mix in that the Cubs boast a stacked lineup and those 95 RBIs from last season in the five-hole look pretty darn sustainable. There is still room for him to grow into his frame a bit and that .277 BABIP should step forward as well. Russell is currently 9-for-30 with five homers this spring, so the man appears ready. Don’t be shy.

John Lackey (SP – CHC) – Average ADP: 143.5

Lackey really enjoyed his first season with the Cubs, posting an 11-8 record with a career-high 8.6 K/9, 11.5% swinging-strike rate and 1.06 WHIP. After regularly posting BABIPs between roughly .280-.315, he enjoyed the defense of the aforementioned Russell and the rest of a historically-great gloved crew behind him to post a basement-level .255 BABIP. That mark was also the overall BABIP mark for Chicago’s entire pitching staff, just in case one wonders whether Lackey got lucky or not — even in the context of the strengths surrounding him. Defensive prowess aside, it’s still a big ask of them to make up for what ended up being a big 34.4% hard-hit rate and 22.7% line-drive rate. While a little regression is likely in the works for the 38-year-old, he should still return profits compared to arms like Dallas Keuchel, Matt Harvey and Marcus Stroman.

Kendrys Morales (1B/DH – TOR) – Average ADP: 146.8

Morales has been talked about quite a bit, but clearly, we all need some more reminding with his ADP still sitting at 146. Morales showed that he still has serious 30-homer upside in 2016, even in the power-suppressing Kauffman Park, and now he gets to swing the lumber in Rogers Centre. He also steps into the same lineup slot that Edwin Encarnacion just swatted 117 RBIs out of, with Toronto still touting a ton of firepower around him. This should also help Morales score more than 65 runs even with his limited speed, and many metrics have pointed to his .263 average being low considering the career-high 41.1% hard-hit rate. Consider how Eric Hosmer, who hit 25 homers (that are likely to regress toward 20) with 104 RBIs and a .266 average, is going nearly 50 picks earlier. Buy Morales early and you’ll still be getting great value.

Keon Broxton (OF – MIL) – Average ADP: 201.5

The 26-year-old has notable streaks of aggressiveness paying off and also biting him in the rump, but boy did he look good from his July 26 call-up on. In 169 plate appearances, he socked eight homers while going 16-for-19 on swipe attempts alongside a .294/.399/.538 triple slash. He still struck out 32.5% of the time and relied on a ridiculous .425 BABIP to float that average, but even if he hits .240 or .250, this is a guy who can hit 20+ homers with 40 steals. It only helps his speed case that Milwaukee is the most aggressive base-stealing team in the majors. Consider that he’s the OF54 (#200 ADP on average) and one should feel good about utilizing a little Mr. Fantastic arm action in order to lock up this late-round flier.


Subscribe: iTunes | StitcherSoundCloud | Google PlayTuneInRSS

Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53

More Articles

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 5 min read
Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 10 min read
MLB DFS, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props Picks: Thursday (3/28)

MLB DFS, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props Picks: Thursday (3/28)

fp-headshot by Josh Shepardson | 1 min read
Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Jordan Romano, Michael Kopech, Paul Sewald (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Jordan Romano, Michael Kopech, Paul Sewald (2024)

fp-headshot by Austin Lowell | 4 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

3 min read

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Next Up - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Next Article