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Draft Strategy: Position Scarcity (Fantasy Baseball)

Draft Strategy: Position Scarcity (Fantasy Baseball)

It’s fantasy baseball draft prep season, and that means an abundance of articles using ambiguous terms or phrases such as sleeper, breakout player and, the subject of this article, position scarcity. Position scarcity might seem unambiguous at first blush, but that’s not entirely true. Position scarcity can mean slightly different things depending on the context. It can mean a limited number of elite options at a position, a steep decline between tiers or — and, as opposed to or, in some cases — a lack of palatable options at the end of a draftable player pool at a position. What’s considered a scarce position in a 12-team mixed league might not be scarce in a 10-team mixed league. Ditto for moving from a 12-team league up to a larger size mixer or only format. Strategy for handling position scarcity for different league sizes and formats matters, too. Speaking of formats, it stands to reason catcher is more scarce in a two-catcher league than a single-catcher format, right? Middle infield and corner infield options are more likely to dry up in leagues utilizing those positions in addition to second base/shortstop and first base/third base. And outfielders become more scarce in leagues using five starters as opposed to three. Alright, you get the idea. Now that I’ve highlighted some considerations for position scarcity and outlined the importance of context, let’s dive into the nuts and bolts.

The most important rule of thumb to remember when dealing with position scarcity can basically be applied to all draft strategy, and that’s that the goal is to win your league (forgetting keeper and dynasty leagues for the purpose of this article, since they’re an entirely different animal). At the end of the day, you’re looking to construct a team that gives you the best opportunity to score the most points in your roto leagues, points format or best position yourself to navigate the regular season and postseason in head-to-head leagues. This might seem like an obvious statement, but noobs and even experienced players who feel the crunch of the draft clock winding down can fall into the trap of reaching or overspending in auctions on a player at a scarce position instead of grabbing a much more valuable player at a different, deeper position. Don’t make that mistake. The best way to avoid that pitfall is to rank and, more importantly, tier players at each position.

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Let me elaborate on tiering using an example. Third base features a quartet of elite options in the form of Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson. The order of how they are ranked isn’t important in this case. The idea is that they’re the clear cut first tier at third base (putting aside the fact Bryant and Machado qualify at other positions). Perhaps you believe Jonathan Villar and Kyle Seager are a cut above the next wave of third basemen and put them in their own second tier followed by a third tier four or five others. Using the expert consensus rankings (ECR), this isn’t a wild leap. Again, using the expert consensus rankings, it’s not outrageous to think many drafters will view a sizable gap in fantasy value between the stud quartet tier one and the Villar/Seager tier two. However, many drafters might not project a big gap between Villar/Seager and the third tier of four or five other third basemen. If that’s the case, it doesn’t make much sense to overpay for Villar or Seager by multiple rounds or many dollars when you can pick from the third tier at a better cost. If you view a big drop in talent between tier three and the following tiers, it might be worth your while to prioritize grabbing a player from within the third tier. The idea remains to get bang for your buck and keep your eye on the prize of accumulating the stats necessary to win your league, though. If league mates are reaching for tier three third basemen, there’s merit to grabbing more talented players at other positions who slid and grabbing from a lower tier.

Catcher is a position that’s scarce by all of the aforementioned definitions in the view of most reasonable people. There’s a small number of elite options, and some gamers may go as far as to conclude there are zero elite options at catcher. There are stark drops in talent between certain tiers, and in large mixed leagues, only formats and two-catcher formats, there’s also a lack of palatable options at the bottom of the barrel of catchers who will be drafted. The size of the league and format is huge for strategy.

In smaller leagues, I’m more willing to pony up for an upper-tier option. The rationale is simple. I’m looking to get an edge. If you view one or two catchers as a far cry above the rest, there’s an edge to be gained by owning one of them — this is assuming the markup isn’t absurd, of course. The reason you can afford to pay a premium for a scarce position in a smaller league is the plethora of similarly talented options at the deeper positions.

There’s an added benefit to drafting an elite player at a scarce position and being less picky about which similarly valuable player you get at a deeper position, and that involves the replacement level of players in free agency. If you select Buster Posey as your catcher, believe two others are within his tier, and then feel the talent gap substantially shrinks between tiers for the next 10 to 12 catchers, there’s a decent probability a few catchers will go undrafted who are just about as good as the starters on the seven rosters that don’t feature one of the other two elite catchers. Sure, those unrostered catchers might get churned on and off of rosters, but in the event Posey suffers an injury that sidelines him, there’s a decent possibility you’ll be able to fill his void with a player who’s not that much worse than most of your leaguemate’s catchers. If Posey stays healthy or mostly healthy and lives up to your projections, though, you’re gaining a statistical advantage over more than half of your league.

In larger leagues where the level of a replacement player is reduced drastically, my focus changes. I’m less concerned with paying the necessary premium to secure the rights to an elite player at a scarce position. Instead, my focus is on securing premium stats regardless of the position while simultaneously doing everything I can to avoid drafting the dregs at scarce positions. I avoid punting like the plague, and I’ll occasionally pay a little extra to make sure I’m snagging players who are a cut or a few cuts above the bottom tier of draftable players.

Instead of looking at catchers, let’s consider shortstops in a 14-team mixed league using a middle infield position. I’ll add a wrinkle to this scenario by saying I’ve drafted a second baseman I’m extremely comfortable with as a my starter in this hypothetical situation. Continuing to speak hypothetically, I believe there’s a sharp drop in talent after the 17th ranked shortstop in the ECR, and I have to fill both shortstop and middle infield. One strategy I’ll frequently use in a situation like this is plucking a pair of shortstops ranked inside the top 17. This gives me some insurance should one of the two shortstops falter, and it also fills my middle infield role. In the event one of the shortstops face plants or suffers a serious injury, I’ll have the unfortunate situation of dipping into the free-agent pool to fill my middle infield position if I don’t have a fourth middle infielder kicking around on my roster, but it will open my usable player pool up to include second base and not limit me to scooping up a shortstop. If, however, I only grab one shortstop within my top 17 and lock my middle infield spot up with a second baseman, I pigeon hole myself into adding a dreadful shortstop or trading for one in a position with little to no leverage if said shortstop fails or gets hurt. In deeper leagues, injuries happen and it’s nearly impossible to have every base covered, but you can make a conscious effort to avoid being behind the 8-ball at a scarce position.

As I’ve illustrated, there is no one cookie cutter way to handle position scarcity for leagues of all sizes and formats. You need to adjust your strategy by league type. Be prepared for your drafts to avoid making noob mistakes, and don’t get so bogged down by position scarcity that you lose sight of the importance of accumulating the stats needed to hit benchmark numbers for winning your league.


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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