DraftKings NBA Lineup Advice: Friday (3/17)
Top o’ the mornin’ to ya! Or, maybe it is the afternoon? I guess it depends on when you actually read this. Either way, Happy Saint Patrick’s Day. The day when America claims to be Irish and uses it as an excuse to drink excessively! Well, if you are going to have fun tonight, you might as well play some daily fantasy basketball, right? We have a nice eight-game slate with a couple games I would consider stacking.
This is a weird approach, but I actually love the Miami versus Minnesota game as a stack in cash. I will be playing it in some tournaments too. I think the game sees a higher output than the Vegas total of 205. The last time out, the two teams scrapped back and forth with a total output of 228. This is a sneaky game stack and I will be all over it. The Phoenix versus Orlando game is the other one I like tonight. It has the second highest projected total at 220 with a spread of only three. My favorite play comes from this game too!
Well, that is enough teasing, let’s dive into the players to look at tonight.
Ricky Rubio (MIN): $7,700 @ MIA
The matchup is not great on paper, but I will continue to use Rubio in cash. His floor is 35 DraftKings points lately, and even at this price that is not a problem. His salary is getting close to being unusable, but as I said, I like this game stack. I will look to pair Rubio with Goran Dragic for some correlation. When these two teams met earlier in the year, Rubio put up 41 DraftKings points. He has averaged 45 fantasy points over the last 10 games.
- Elfrid Payton (ORL): $7,800 @ PHO (GPP)
- Goran Dragic (MIA): $7,300 vs. MIN (BOTH)
- Tyler Ulis (PHO): $5,700 vs. ORL (BOTH)
I will say I think Harden is fine for cash games, but I think he struggles to reach tournament value against a somewhat stingy Pelicans’ defense.
Avery Bradley (BOS): $6,000 @ BKN
Bradley is not on a minutes restriction, he has been playing well, and now Isaiah Thomas is out. I am all over Bradley as we wait for his price to creep back up. Remember when he was $8,000 earlier this year? He has the upside for tournaments, and I love him in cash. The matchup is great and the only concern here is a blowout. Even if that happens, Bradley has the peripheral stats to save his fantasy night. Brooklyn is 27th in DvP to the shooting guard position over the last 10 games. Couple that with the slight usage bump because Thomas is out and you have a great value here.
- Devin Booker (PHO): $7,200 vs. ORL (BOTH)
- Seth Curry (DAL): $5,900 vs. PHI (BOTH)
- Denzel Valentine (CHI): $4,100 @ WAS (CASH)
Jimmy Butler (CHI): $8,800 @ WAS
Dwyane Wade is now out for the season, and that means we fire up Butler. Butler has been hard to trust in cash games lately, and I am still on the fence, but I love him for tournaments. He has the potential to put up over 60 DraftKings points, and we have not seen him under $9,000 too often this season. The matchup is favorable and the pace should be there. The main thing, though, is the usage. With Wade off the court, Butler sees a 33 percent usage rate and five more fantasy points per-36-minutes. Lock and load.
- T.J. Warren (PHO): $6,600 vs. ORL (CASH)
- Bojan Bogdonavic (WAS): $4,500 vs. CHI (GPP)
- Shabazz Muhammad (MIN): $3,700 @ MIA (BOTH)
Dario Saric (PHI): $7,900 vs. DAL
Saric has now had back-to-back 50 DraftKings points performances. This makes me think his ownership will be too high for tournaments. That said, I love him for cash games. With consistent minutes, Saric has become a great daily fantasy option. I also prefer him in cash on this slate because the mathcup is not going to help him. Dallas is 15th in DvP against the power forward position over the last 10 games. Dallas is not a pace-up team either, and that means Saric and the 76ers will see fewer possessions than normal. To sum it up, small exposure in tournaments and worth a play in cash.
- Julius Randle (LAL): $7,400 vs. MIL (GPP)
- Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): $6,100 vs. BKN (CASH)
- Marquese Chriss (PHO): $5,300 vs. ORL (GPP)
Nikola Vucevic (ORL): $7,400 @ PHO
Remember when I said my favorite play came from the Phoenix versus Orlando game? Well, here he is! In a bad game against the Warriors, he still hit 28 DraftKings points. Taking blowouts (an outlier) out of the equation, I would put his floor around 32 fantasy points. His ceiling is tough for tournaments, but in this matchup against the Suns, I think he can return that value too. He put up 45 DraftKings points the last time these two teams met by scoring 21 real points and grabbing 13 rebounds. Vucevic is undervalued in daily fantasy and I think you can take advantage of that once again.
- Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): $10,400 @ MIA (CASH; Small GPP Exposure)
- Hassan Whiteside (MIA): $8,100 vs. MIN (BOTH)
- Brook Lopez (BKN): $6,800 vs. BOS (CASH)
- Alan Williams (PHO): $6,300 vs. ORL (CASH)
- Kelly O’lynyk (BOS): $4,000 @ BKN (GPP)
That wraps things up. Short and sweet so we can go drink!
Rob Schwarz, Jr. is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Rob, check out his archive. You may also read his work on RotoViz, House Money Fantasy, and FLAFFL House or you can follow him on Twitter @ChiSportsnut25.