FanDuel NBA Lineup Advice: Tuesday (3/28)
As I mentioned last Tuesday, this is the time of the year in the NBA season where you need to keep your focus on players that play for teams that are fighting for the playoffs when building your lineups. Also, be sure to monitor late-breaking news closely and take every potential rumor of someone resting seriously. Look to pivot away from them even before getting confirmation, especially in Cash games.
You will notice that I reference some of my own custom stats in my NBA DFS articles that I use to help determine my favorite plays. I don’t use the common Defense versus Position (DvP) numbers that most use. Instead, I calculate blended percentages for each stat category (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) that take into account team stats for the season and last five games, as well as a weighted average between similar positions. For example, my shooting guard DvP numbers are a blended between point guard (10%), shooting guard (70%) and small forward (20%) stats for each category.
Damian Lillard (POR): $9,400 vs DEN
Lillard will be a lock for my Cash and GPP lineups for Tuesday night. He is playing great basketball, putting up over 40 FanDuel points in seven straight games, and gets a favorable matchup against the Nuggets in a game that could decide who gets the 8th seed in the Western Conference. The Nuggets have allowed increased production to opposing PG in points (+13.3%), assists (+4.8%) and steals (+9.1%). Open your lineup, plugin Lillard, and go from there.
Ish Smith (DET): $4,500 vs MIA
Smith has started each of the last three games for the Pistons and now with Reggie Jackson out, Smith is in line to see at least 30 minutes with just a $4,500 price tag. His matchup against the Heat is not ideal as they perform pretty well against opposing PG, but with the Pistons just 1.5 games behind the Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, Smith should play big minutes which should translate into enough production to play off his low salary.
James Harden (HOU): $12,500 vs GS
Not much has to be said to convince you to play Harden any time he suits up. The only concern could be the fact that the Rockets are locked into the 3rd seed in the West so maybe they don’t have much to play for. However, playing in front of the home court in a potential playoff preview matchup against the Warriors is the type of game where Harden will put forth a strong effort. The game should remain close with the Rockets as a small favorite. With the up-tempo nature of both teams, we could see a score in the 120s for each team. I guess there was something to say about why to play Harden after all.
Klay Thompson (GS): $7,000 @ HOU
This spot is a coin flip between Thompson and C.J. McCollum. Both are in favorable matchups with good game environments to succeed. I lean toward Thompson ever so slightly so that I don’t double-up on the Blazers’ backcourt and get some exposure to the Warriors at the same time. Thompson should get the easier matchup being guarded by Harden while Stephen Curry must contend with Patrick Beverley. Thompson hasn’t had success against the Rockets in two previous matchups this season, but both of those games were with Kevin Durant still in the lineup. Thompson or McCollum, get out the coin.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (BRK): $4,700 vs PHI
Hollis-Jefferson has been playing his best basketball of the season over the last few games. In his last three games, he has topped 31 FanDuel points in each contest while averaging 11.7 points and 12.0 rebounds per game in only 20.6 minutes. He gets a favorable matchup on Tuesday against the Sixers who have allowed a small increase in production across the board to opposing SF. Look for Hollis-Jefferson to reach at least 6x his salary for the fourth straight game.
Taurean Prince (ATL): $3,800 vs PHO
Prince’s production can be a little volatile depending on his minutes. However, when he gets minutes he has been productive, including putting up 32.7 FanDuel points in 38 minutes in his previous game against Brooklyn. Prince should see at least 30 minutes again on Tuesday as Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha both remain out. He should be able to take advantage of the playing time in an up-tempo game against the Suns, making him a very strong value play.
Richaun Holmes (PHI): $5,700 @ BKN
Holmes production has had some highs (51.3 FanDuel points) and lows (12.6 FanDuel) points over his last four games. With the Sixers continuing to be thin at center, Holmes should continue to see significant minutes in a favorable matchup against the Nets. The Nets have allowed more points (+6.4%) and rebounds (+9.5%) to opposing PF giving Holmes the upside to get closer to the high of his recent range of outcomes.
Ersan Ilyasova (ATL): $4,800 vs PHO
In his last five games without Paul Millsap in the lineup, Ilyasova is averaging almost 26 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 5x his current salary. He will also get the advantage of playing the up-tempo Suns who have allowed increased production in points (+6.3%) and rebounds (+7.3) to opposing PF. He may not have huge upside, but he is a solid bet to reach at least 5x his salary again.
Andre Drummond (DET): $7,600 vs MIA
Drummond may be a little bit of a contrarian selection at center for Tuesday’s slate. He has played fewer than 26 minutes in each of his last three games while averaging just 29.2 FanDuel points. However, he will likely play more than 30 minutes Tuesday against Hassan Whiteside and the Heat. In three matchups with the Heat this season, Drummond has averaged over 32 minutes per game while producing 53.5, 51.6 and 52.7 FanDuel points respectively. Drummond is a solid Cash game option and could also be a sneaky GPP target.