Third base is loaded at the top with a quartet of players featuring a top-10 ECR. One member of that quartet stands out as a bit overrated, and he makes the busts cut despite being an elite talent. While bust might be too extreme of a label for him since I do expect him to have an excellent year, a gap in my rankings and the ECR of five spots is huge for a player going in the top 10. He’s joined by a couple of steady veterans who look a pinch overrated and a young option at the hot corner who carries an overall ECR 59 spots higher than my overall ranking.
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Kris Bryant (CHC): ECR No. 5
The 2016 National League MVP is awesome. I’m not disputing that he’s awesome, but I have him ranked behind three hot corner peers. Bryant ranked fourth in runs, tied for ninth in homers and tied for 17th in RBIs last year while hitting .292 and stealing eight bases. He had a great year, but his high ranks weren’t limited to favorable categories.
Among qualified hitters, Bryant had the 13th worst contact percentage (81.1%) on pitches in the strike zone (Z-Contact%), was tied for the 22nd lowest contact percentage (Contact%) overall at 73.3% and checked in with the 18th highest swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) at 13.0%, according to FanGraphs. Even with all of his swing and miss, Bryant’s 22.0% K% was less than one percent higher than the league average strikeout rate of 21.1% in 2016. Bryant was able to make up for his swing and miss by being aggressive and giving himself extra chances to put the ball in play, but if his contact rates don’t improve, he’s likely to strikeout in around a quarter of his plate appearances or more. ZiPS projects him for a 27.1% K%, FanGraphs’ depth charts pegs him for a 25.6% K% and Steamer — the most optimistic projection system featured on FanGraphs, not including the fans — projects him for a 24.0% K%. More strikeouts from Bryant will probably hurt his average, and I think he’ll lose between 10 and 20 points from his .292 AVG in 2016.
The young slugger stole eight bases, but he wasn’t efficient getting caught five times. He needs to tighten up his efficiency or he runs the risk of getting the stop light on the bases. Bryant’s athletic, but his FanGraphs’ speed score was below average. He stole 13 bases in 2015, but that looks like a ceiling to me, and I think it’s more likely he falls short of double-digit steals again. Bryant’s power is elite, and the Cubs’ lineup is loaded so he’ll pile up run production stats, but he looks more like a back end of the first-round talent than a top half of the first pick. Maybe that’s not a bust, but the stakes are the highest in the first round, and Bryant’s shortcomings are deserving of recognition.
Kyle Seager (SEA): ECR No. 53
Last year, Seager set new highs in homers (30), runs (89), RBIs (99) and batting average (.278). He also displayed his most patient approach to date walking in a whopping 10.2% of his plate appearances. The lefty paired patience with power setting a new high with a .221 ISO. He did many good things, but he set a new low with three stolen bases. He only attempted four steals, so I don’t see him stealing more than a handful at most. Power was up across the game last year. Seager’s value is hurt by the new landscape of baseball and the depth of third base as a whole.
Another knock on Seager is the way he finished up his career year last season. In the first half, he belted 18 homers with a .287/.365/.537 slash line, .251 ISO and 142 wRC+. In the second half, he hit 12 homers with a .267/.352/.450 slash line, .183 ISO and 121 wRC+. From 2013 through 2015, Seager hit .265/.333/.444 with a .179 ISO and 119 wRC+ while averaging 24.3 homers per year. Seager’s second half was fine last year, but it looks a hell of a lot like his work from the three prior years. He’s a rock steady choice at the hot corner, but he looks more like a mid to upper-20s home run hitter than a 30-homer hitter. Seager’s overall profile isn’t that different than a number of options being drafted after him. I don’t think he’ll be bad, but spending a pick in the first five rounds of a 12-team mixed league draft on him is too rich for my blood.
Todd Frazier (CHW): ECR No.68
Frazier is an extreme fly-ball hitter, and he kicked that up a notch last year setting a new high with a 48.7% FB%. The result was a new high in homers at 40, but the power came at the expense of his batting average. Frazier’s extreme fly-ball tendencies have led to some ugly pop up numbers with a 16.8% infield fly-ball percentage (IFFB%) in 2015 and an 18.5% IFFB% last year. A pop up is essentially the batted ball equivalent of a strikeout. Pair his career-high IFFB% with a career-high 24.5% K%, and the result was an ugly .225 AVG.
Frazier is a classic slugger who sells out for power and swings through plenty of pitches (12.5% SwStr%). Among qualified hitters, his SwStr% was tied for the 22nd highest and his 81.9% Z-Contact% was the 16th lowest. The veteran right-handed slugger’s contact rates don’t portend well for him improving his strikeout rate much if at all. Even with an ugly IFFB% in 2015, he turned in a .271 BABIP, so it’s possible Frazier’s .236 BABIP in 2016 could get a lift this season, but he’s a batting average drag, there’s no doubt about that.
Frazier helps his fantasy bottom line by swiping bags and stole 20 in 2014, 13 in 2015 and 15 last year. Reaching the teens in stolen bases is well within reach for Frazier this year. The White Sox are in rebuilding mode and shipped off top-flight table-setter Adam Eaton. Eaton’s high OBP (.362 in 2016) partially helped pave the way for Frazier to set a new high with 98 RBIs. Removing a player like that from the lineup hurts Frazier’s RBI upside. Furthermore, with the Pale Hose’s eye on the future, the team could deal other veterans such as Jose Abreu, which would hurt Frazier’s RBI upside even more. There’s also a very real possibility Frazier is moved. Guaranteed Rate Field — the new name of the White Sox home ballpark — has a right-handed batter park factor for homers of 109, per the rolling three-year average at StatCorner. A deal to a less homer-friendly ballpark could cut into Frazier’s homers, and it’s something worth considering at draft time since a lateral ballpark factor move is probably about the best he can hope for. I have Frazier ranked eight spots lower overall (76) than his ECR, and he has much more downside than most of the third basemen being drafted around him. Add in the extra draft work necessary to compensate for his batting average problems, and I don’t believe he’s worth drafting at his ECR cost.
Maikel Franco (PHI): ECR No. 129
It’s difficult to be a bust as a pick outside the top-125 picks, and that’s why most of the bust pieces won’t feature a player ranked as low as Franco is. However, with a whopping 59 spot gap between his overall ECR and my ranking of 188, I made a special exception to highlight him. Franco is a slow-footed, one-dimensional slugger who didn’t slug enough last year with a .172 ISO and 25 homers. He’s just a year removed from a rookie season in which he hit 14 homers with a .217 ISO and .280 AVG in just 335 plate appearances, but the league-wide home run surge last season hurts a player with Franco’s profile immensely.
For a slugger, Franco does a good job of avoiding strikeouts with only a 16.7% K% in his career and a 16.8% K% last year. Having said that, he’s a pop-up machine with a 16.4% IFFB% in his career and a 17.1% IFFB% last year. Combine his penchant for pop-ups with his lack of speed, and his .271 BABIP last year doesn’t look to be a case of bad luck at all. His below average BABIP resulted in a non-fantasy-friendly .255 AVG. He also does a poor job of working walks (6.5% BB% in his career and 6.3% last season) which hurts his OBP and his run-scoring potential. He’s a total dud on the bases with just two steals in 248 games played and 1,023 plate appearances in the Majors.
The 24-year-old did help his cause with 88 RBIs, but he totaled most of his plate appearances hitting third or fourth in Philadelphia’s order. The team added free agents Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders, and Tommy Joseph was the more productive slugging corner infielder and improved as the 2016 season went on while Franco’s numbers declined. I’m not convinced he’ll retain his spot in the heart of the order, and dropping to fifth or sixth in the order would greatly diminish his run-production potential. Add it all up and Franco’s ceiling isn’t that exciting and his floor is a homer helper only. There’s no way I’d trust Franco to start at third base on my fantasy squads, and I’d rather look elsewhere to fill my corner infield and utility spots as well.
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: 1B
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: 2B
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: SS
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: C
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: OF
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: SP
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: RP
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
