Catcher is ugly. Gary Sanchez added a jolt of life to the position, and I’m a believer in his stick, so you won’t see him included in the busts. Buster Posey‘s power and average were down from his normal levels last year, but I’m higher on him than the ECR, so he, too, won’t be included in the busts. Kyle Schwarber and Jonathan Lucroy are the only other two catchers with an ECR in the top 120. My rank isn’t that far off of the ECR for either of them, so neither of them will be covered as busts. There is one name in the top-125 ECR rank who stands out as a bust, and he’ll get the nod. However, I’ve had to loosen the bust standards a bit for the other two players. One is being selected as a top-10 catcher and a reach as a top-200 pick. The other is on the cusp of C1 status in 12-team mixers but looks the part of a middle to low-end C2.

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Willson Contreras (CHC) – ECR No. 123

This isn’t the first time this offseason I’ve cautioned against selecting Contreras at his cost. If you own him in a dynasty or keeper league, you should be ecstatic. I like Contreras’ long-term outlook. In the short term, I’m not nearly as bullish. For starters, the lineup is loaded for the Cubs. That’s a double-edged sword for the young backstop. It provides more run production than he’d be awarded down the order in an average or worse offense. That’s the rub, though, the talented bats in the Cubs’ offense ensures Contreras won’t hit in one of the top four spots in the order — with the possible exception of setting the table against southpaws on occasion. He’s probably unlikely to hit fifth, either. Addison Russell frequently batted fifth in the lineup from early July through the end of last year. That leaves Contreras likely primarily hitting sixth or seventh with Jason Heyward’s ability to rebound playing a role in which spot Contreras claims. A down order spot undoubtedly takes a bite out of his run production upside, and that alone makes him a tough sell as a top-125 player.

There are more reasons for concern, though. Optimists will point to the youngster’s low strikeout rates in the upper minors as reason to believe he’ll whittle his 23.7% K% down substantially this season. In the long term, I believe he will do a better job of making contact, but there are plenty of flies in the ointment in his profile that indicate transition won’t happen overnight. Contact was an issue for Contreras last year. His contact rate on pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%) of 76.6% was almost 10% worse than the league average in 2016 of 86.3%, according to FanGraphs. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, he would have checked in with the fifth lowest Z-Contact% last year. Contreras’ 13.9% swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) was also considerably worse than the league average of 10.1% and would’ve been the 14th highest among qualified hitters. The fact he struck out in only 23.7% of his plate appearances last year is surprising, and if he doesn’t tighten up his ability to make contact, it’s more likely his strikeout rate gets worse than it gets better in the immediate future.

Strikeouts pose a hindrance to him maintaining the .282 average he tallied last year, but so does the potential regression to his .339 BABIP. Contreras rattled off a .370 BABIP in 521 plate appearances at the Double-A level in 2015 and a .382 BABIP in 240 plate appearances at the Triple-A level last year. He’s no stranger to high BABIPs. However, he hit 54.3% of his balls in play on the ground last year, and with a 42.5% pull percentage (Pull%), he’s a prime candidate for shifting against. Pulled ground balls are begging to be gobbled up by the shift. Furthermore, with just a 27.7% flyball percentage (FB%), Conteras needed a 23.5% HR/FB% to reach the seats a dozen times in 283 plate appearances. I’m not buying the HR/FB% for a guy who hit 17 homers in 761 plate appearances in the upper minors. He needs to hit the ball in the air more if he hopes to approach his home run pace of last year. He’s a good athlete and could swipe a few bags (he stole six in 12 attempts last year between Triple-A and the Majors), but the run production numbers, a likely regressed batting average, and a teens home run total aren’t enough to make him a top-125 player even after accounting for position scarcity. If you miss out on the studs, wait for the wave of catchers after Contreras before pulling the trigger.

Brian McCann (HOU) – ECR No. 186

You don’t need me to tell you that McCann’s stud days behind the dish are done. His power remains legit with another 20-homer campaign added to the resume last year, but he’s hit north of .250 one time since 2012 and north of .240 just one more time. The left-handed hitter’s BABIP has cratered in recent years almost directly as a result of being shifted against frequently. There’s no reason to expect him to hit better than .230-.240. Catcher isn’t a spot overflowing with batting average help, so that’s fine, but it’s certainly not a check in the pros column for popping McCann in drafts.

Fence-clearing power remains the primary reason for investing in McCann, and there’s a good chance it takes a hit this year. Since joining the Yankees in 2014, McCann has featured a massive home/road split. In those three years at home, he hit .246/.327/.476 with a .230 ISO, 120 wRC+ and 46 homers in 796 plate appearances. From 2014 through last year on the road, he hit .225/.299/.359 with a .134 ISO, 81 wRC+ and 23 homers in 769 plate appearances. He’s been dreadful on the road, and it’s clear he took advantage of the lefty-friendly nature of his previous home digs. Yankee Stadium has a left-handed batter park factor of 138, according to StatCorner’s rolling three-year averages. Houston’s Minute Maid Park is a left-handed power-friendly environment with a park factor of 108 for homers, but that’s still 30% worse than Yankee Stadium.

McCann will also face competition for playing time in the form of Evan Gattis. Gattis was a far superior hitter last year (119 wRC+ for Gattis compared to 103 for McCann), and while each of the catchers could see some time at designated hitter, Carlos Beltran will spend significant time as the DH, too. One might assume McCann holds a significant defensive advantage over Gattis, but that doesn’t appear to be true at all. Last year, McCann allowed 47 stolen bases in 61 attempts (77% success rate) in 86 starts and 92 games played behind the plate. Gattis was outstanding controlling the running game allowing only 15 steals in 28 attempts (53.6% success rate) in 49 starts and 55 games at catcher. The former Yankee did a better job of avoiding passed balls (just six) than Gattis (five in 37 fewer starts than McCann). Having said that, Gattis gains another defensive edge on McCann when looking at pitch framing. According to StatCorner’s pitch framing data, Gattis checked in 16th in per-game pitch framing value among backstops who caught a minimum of 1,000 pitches and McCann ranked 21st. It’s a small edge for Gattis, but it’s yet another point in his favor as a better defensive option behind the plate.

Between catching and serving as the designated hitter, there could be 400-plus plate appearances available for both players — assuming Beltran’s body doesn’t totally fail him playing part time in the outfield. Getting back to 500-plus plate appearances like McCann totaled in 2014 and 2015 is highly unlikely, though. Finally, when you factor in McCann’s dreadful finish to 2016 that I previously covered here, you find McCann on the outside of the top-200 players looking in.

Stephen Vogt (OAK) – ECR No. 250

Vogt is the ECR No. 13 catcher, and if you play anywhere other than Yahoo!, Schwarber doesn’t carry catcher eligibility. Thus, Vogt is essentially ranked as a starting catcher in single-catcher, 12-team mixed leagues that aren’t hosted at Yahoo!. I wouldn’t be thrilled about him as my C2, and there’s no way I’d use him as a starter in a single-catcher league.

The 32-year-old catcher had a breakout 2015 campaign in which he earned an All-Star berth, hit 18 homers, slashed .261/.341/.443, but collapsed in the second half. In the second half of 2015, he hit .217/.280/.349 with only four homers in 182. Last year was more of the same in the second half. Down the stretch of 2016, he hit .222/.287/.365 with seven homers in 251 plate appearances. The biggest difference between 2015 and 2016 was that the sequel’s first half wasn’t nearly as good as the original.

Vogt’s 2015 looks like an outlier, namely in terms of working walks. He walked in an impressive 11.0% of his plate appearances, and that helped fuel a .341 OBP. From 2012 through 2014, Vogt’s walk rate was 5.8% in 462 plate appearances. Last year, his walk rate was 6.6%. Vogt’s .182 ISO in 2015 also bests his .152 ISO in his first year with the A’s in 2014 and .155 ISO last year.

Overall last year, he was seven percent worse than league average offensively with a 93 wRC+. He earned his best defensive grade at FanGraphs in a single season last year, but he’s not an asset defensively. Among the 45 catchers who received at least 400 plate appearances last year, Vogt ranked 24th in FanGraphs’ defensive grade. He’s not a good pitch framer, either. Out of 80 catchers who caught a minimum of 1,000 pitches last year, Vogt ranked 64th in per game pitch framing value, per StatCorner. Remarkably, backup catcher Josh Phegley ranked worse checking in 68th in per game pitch framing value. The point I’m getting at is that if Vogt’s bat doesn’t rebound, he doesn’t have his work behind the dish to lean on to keep him in the lineup.

Vogt’s shortcomings against left-handed pitchers and his pitcher-friendly home ballpark already cap his upside. On the wrong side of 30, he could already be in decline mode, and his poor defense and pitch framing make him a less safe bet to retain the starting catching job for the entirety of the season for the rebuilding A’s than many might be willing to acknowledge. Catcher lacks depth and the C2 pile is full of guys with blemishes. Vogt would be fine being drafted as a C2, that’s not what’s happening. You’d be better served rolling the dice on a flawed younger catcher with upside at a cheaper cost such as Cameron Rupp or Travis d’Arnaud, or you can spend a similar cost on an established commodity like Yadier Molina and feel confident his defense will keep him in the lineup and his batting average will help your team.

• Fantasy Baseball Busts: 1B
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: 2B
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: 3B
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: SS
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: OF
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: SP
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: RP

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50