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Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Loading up on Hitters Early

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Loading up on Hitters Early

Guess what? I’ve got a fever. And the only prescription is more mock drafting. March is finally here and that means draft season is truly upon us. Today, we’re going to look at what a true “hitter-heavy” approach looks like, exploring how to best round out a winning squad while really waiting to attack pitching. I promise it is possible, and actually quite fun!

For this respective 12-team redraft mock, we’re using standard 5×5 roto categories with these slots: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, 3 OF, 2 Util, 3 SP, 2 RP, 4 P, and 5 BN. To complete this mock, I used our Draft Wizard which is a quick and easy way to prepare for your fantasy baseball drafts. You can view the full draft board and analysis here.

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  • 1.04 Nolan Arenado, COL
  • 2.09 Joey Votto, CIN
  • 3.04 A.J. Pollock, ARI
  • 4.09 Rougned Odor, TEX
  • 5.04 Ian Desmond, COL
  • 6.09 Adrian Beltre, TEX
  • 7.04 Todd Frazier, CWS
  • 8.09 Adam Jones, BAL
  • 9.04 Roberto Osuna, TOR
  • 10.09 Rich Hill, LAD
  • 11.04 Cody Allen, CLE
  • 12.09 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
  • 13.04 Marcell Ozuna, MIA
  • 14.09 Russell Martin, TOR
  • 15.04 Tony Watson, PIT
  • 16.09 Jeff Samardzija, SF
  • 17.04 Tim Anderson, CWS
  • 18.09 Garrett Richards, LAA
  • 19.04 Matt Shoemaker, LAA
  • 20.09 Joe Ross, WSH
  • 21.04 Nate Jones, CWS
  • 22.09 Nomar Mazara, TEX
  • 23.04 Kevin Kiermaier, TB
  • 24.09 Ryan Schimpf, SD
  • 25.04 Orlando Arcia, MIL
  • 26.09 Zach Davies, MIL

Early Rounds

What better way to kick off a draft than with the biggest infusion of Coors power that one can get? Nolan Arenado is entering his age-26 season after tallying at least 40 homers and 130 RBI in each of his past two seasons, so what’s not to love? The only quip is that he doesn’t steal, but he nearly doubled his walk rate last season (5.1% to 9.8%) and lowered his swinging-strike rate by 2% while continuing to supply the power. He’s somehow still getting better. That’s scary.

Then we select Joey Votto and A.J. Pollock, with the former looking like a first rounder during last season’s second half and the latter having been a first rounder entering last season before a freak elbow injury. While Votto likely won’t crack the top-12 in 2018 drafts, his owners still likely won’t endure a horribly un-Votto-like streak as they did in the first half of ’16. Meanwhile, Pollock very well could reenter the first-round conversation in 2018. Nothing has changed since last season! His elbow isn’t a long-term risk – his swing is just fine and his speed is still there. The 29-year-old’s name will litter championship teams in ’17.

How about selecting three Texas Rangers next? Well, okay, Ian Desmond went to the Rockies, but they all played together last season, so it counts. Desmond, Rougned Odor and the consistent Adrian Beltre combined to score 285 runs, hit 87 homers with 278 RBI and steal 36 bases with a batting average around .285 last season, as they formed a durable backbone for Texas’ lineup all season long.

It’s easy to forget that Odor just turned 23 this February, so there’s plenty of room for him to improve on those plate discipline woes. His 30-homer power with double-digit SB speed cannot be overlooked. Desmond going to Coors Field only helps him out and should assuage the fears due to his cold second half in ‘16, plus now we get dual-eligibility with 1B/OF for him. Beltre will be great as long as health holds, and even when he’s battling injuries he’s still somehow above average.

We then score two more veteran bats in Todd Frazier and Adam Jones. I’m trying to work in some speed here without getting a stolen-base specialist with Frazier, and now my outfield is filled as well. We have sufficiently loaded up on hitters and now only require four more starting slots to have a complete offense.

Middle Rounds

With that, I decided to finally turn to pitching. This is “load up on hitters,” not “pitchers have leprosy.” Since I had missed the ace-caliber SPs, I decided to take two strong closers who could act like ratio anchors at the same time in Roberto Osuna and Cody Allen. Rich Hill absolutely has No. 1 stuff, but he will almost assuredly not hit 200 innings, and maybe not even 150. We then take another risk with Dallas Keuchel, who should produce a line somewhere between 2015 and ’16 here. His second half was abbreviated due to a shoulder injury last year, but he posted a .230 batting average against (.269 in the first half) behind a 45-point drop in BABIP. He’s still got talent.

Then we flipped back to hitters in Marcell Ozuna and Russell Martin, as I find myself buying a lot of their shares this season. Ozuna’s pre-wrist injury power was scary good, but then not only did the power drop off but his zone-contact rate dropped from 87.9% to 84.8%. His swing seemed affected most in this way, as he couldn’t get his bat through the zone in the same manner. Martin will likely only bat around .230, but 18-20 homers in a potent lineup from the catcher slot isn’t too bad.

Six of the next seven rounds yielded arms for me. With this strategy, we’re going to need to find guys with decent upside who won’t sabotage my ratios. High-strikeout arms are unlikely to be found here without serious risk, so the less-volatile commodities Tony Watson, Jeff Samardzija, Matt Shoemaker and Nate Jones should hold up while I can look to a rebound from Garrett Richards and a big step from Joe Ross without too much riding on it. Watson gives me three closers and Jones has great ratios, a K/9 above 10 and could get the ninth inning should David Robertson be traded. My RPs are crucial to my staff’s success.

Late Rounds

Tim Anderson was sandwiched in between there so that we totally filled out the roster, which was the plan ever since Addison Russell went off the board. Waiting on Anderson has become a fun little pastime in drafts this season, as he should continue to grow into his frame while getting more comfortable on the basepaths.

The bench slots were largely filled out with more potential offense, as Nomar Mazara showed so much promise in his rookie season that Year Two could be gigantic. Kevin Kiermaier should hit 15+ homers this season, maybe more if he can build on the 6.8% jump in hard-hit rate from last season. He also went 21-for-24 on the basepaths, which may lead to incredible profits if he lands the leadoff job. Ryan Schimpf’s power may be his only trick, but it’s an elite trick. His .315 ISO was higher than David Ortiz’s last season! Then we’re hoping that Orlando Arcia can manufacture better batted-ball luck in 2017, as his .267 BABIP fell well short of his previous three-year average of .327.

So, what were the lessons learned here? Aside from saying “hey, going hitter-heavy means a lot of offense!” that is. It meant getting enough power early to dominate, while also attacking speed throughout (but mostly later). It means adjusting how one attacks pitching to lock down ratios and a healthy K/9, which means relievers are your path to salvation. They can hold you down as you stream starting pitchers considering the risk inherent in the arms you’re going to build your rotation around in the mid-rounds. This is more than viable, and I’ll likely give it a go in one of my leagues this season.


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Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53

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