Projections. They are the backbone of all fantasy baseball preparation.

If you’ve read our auction primer, you’ll know that having solid player projections is the key to creating reliable auction values. And you’ll know that I recommend relying on FantasyPros Zeile Consensus Projections because it’s an aggregate of all the most reliable projection systems.

Projections are the lifeblood of auction values, for sure. But most people ignore them for purposes of drafts. That’s a mistake.

By far, the best preparation for drafts is to mock as often as possible. Try out different strategies and get a feel for where players are going. But once you’ve got the basics down, one of the best under-the-radar moves you can make is to identify whose ADP is inconsistent with their projections.

If someone is being drafted in the fourth round, but a player with nearly identical projections is being drafted in the ninth round, well, you just got yourself some pretty decent knowledge, my friend. So that’s what we’re going to do in this series. We’re going to take a look at some players whose values are not commensurate with their ADP, and take advantage of some arbitrage.

And yes, I’m using fancy words like “commensurate” and “arbitrage” so you’ll think I’m smart and trust my advice. Also, I use them because my 10th-grade English teacher plays fantasy. Hey, Mr. Gordon!

So, here, we’ll take a look at some hitters with Zeile Consensus Projections higher than their ADP. And in later articles, we’ll look at hitters with projections worse than their draft position. Then later we’ll do the same for PITCHERS!

Are you excited? I’m excited. Ready to go? Well, either way, we’re starting, so get on board.

Practice fast mock drafts with our fantasy baseball tools

Adam Duvall (OF – CIN)

• Projections: .238, 72 runs, 30 homers, 90 RBIs, five steals
• ADP: 149

We’re talking the 13th – 15th round for a guy who went 85-33-103-6 last season. I understand, the average hurts, of course, but power like that doesn’t grow on trees, and he even throws in a handful of steals.

When you look at where others with similar projections are being drafted, it’s clear Duvall’s projections suggest he should go earlier. For example, Miguel Sano has nearly identical, but slightly worse, projections than Duvall (.237-71-30-84-2), but is going at pick 127.

Duvall also looks quite a bit like Khris Davis, who has a .246-78-34-94-3 projected stat line. Same for Mark Trumbo, who is projected to hit .256-76-34-92-2. The difference is that those guys have ADPs of 83 and 76, respectively!

Not everyone wants to draft the high power, low batting average sluggers. That’s totally fine. But, if you do, there’s no reason why Mark Trumbo should be going 73 spots higher. Duvall’s projection suggests that he’s being undervalued.

Carlos Gomez (OF – TEX)

• Projections: .255, 72 runs, 18 homers, 62 RBIs, 21 steals
• ADP: 205

Look, I don’t love Carlos Gomez either, but what exactly is happening here? First of all, those projections feel appropriate. Absent injury, Gomez is going to end up somewhere around there.

That’s not a hitter who should be drafted in the 18th – 21st round, guys. Not when Dexter Fowler (.259-82-13-46-13) is being drafted at pick 168, and Odubel Herrera (.280-77-12-49-20) is gone by pick 122.

Gomez certainly carries risk. He was completely unplayable while with the Astros in the first half of last season.

But he rediscovered his game in Texas, and he’s still just 31 years old. Look at where the other power-speed threats are going in your draft. Gomez’s projections are begging you to draft him higher.

Neil Walker (2B – NYM)

• Projections: .268, 66 runs, 21 homers, 69 RBIs, three steals
• ADP: 246

Walker doesn’t light the world on fire, but he’s going undrafted at this point. Everyone, including me, loves Dustin Pedroia. But when his projected line of .293-79-12-61-6 gets you an ADP of 128, then the market pretty clearly is not valuing Walker where it should.

Walker was great last year before his back injury, is hitting well in the spring, and is in a contract year. There’s no reason to forget him on draft day in light of his projections.

Ryan Braun (OF – MIL)

• Projections: .285, 77 runs, 25 homers, 85 RBIs, 15 steals
• ADP: 37

Just so my editors don’t yell at me for only including late-round players, I give you Ryan Braun. He’s going in the fourth round, so it’s not like he’s being forgotten or anything.

But I guess I can’t figure out exactly why he’s going behind George Springer (.262-95-27-75-12) or two full rounds after Charlie Blackmon (.296-95-23-67-25). Of course, Blackmon is clearly better, and Springer has potential.

But based on those projections, which I trust, Braun should be going higher. Stop holding the steroid thing against him, guys. That was like years ago!

Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | Google Play

Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.