The Pirates rotation has an exciting trio of young, high-upside arms in Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon. After an impressive debut, how likely is Taillon to take a step forwards and reach that upside in 2017?
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Prospect Pedigree
Taillon was drafted out of high school as the second-overall pick in the 2010 draft. His immense talent led to him being a fixture on prospect lists throughout his time in the minor leagues. Unfortunately, Taillon wasn’t able to throw a pitch for two full seasons after he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in April 2014 and then battled a sports hernia in 2015 that delayed his return. Even then, Taillon was comfortably a top-100 prospect going into 2016, albeit one with significantly reduced expectations from his earlier days in the minors.
Upon his return in 2016, Taillon proceeded to carve up batters in Triple-A, striking out nine times as many as he walked. Baseball Prospectus scout Adam Hayes reported in May that Taillon’s 70-grade fastball and plus curveball were intact and that his control and command were both impressive given his prolonged absence. It didn’t take long for Pittsburgh to call him up to the majors, with his debut coming on June 8th.
Rookie Season
While the strikeouts didn’t quite translate to the majors, Taillon nonetheless put together a very impressive debut in just over 100 innings. The right-hander struck out five times as many batters as he walked, with a K% of 20.3 and a BB% of just 4.1%, the sixth-best mark among all pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched.
Despite only twice being allowed to throw over 100 pitches, Taillon also showed he can be efficient enough to pitch deep into games, reaching eight innings on three separate occasions. One of those occasions was his second start, against the Mets, in which he needed just 91 pitches to get through eight.
Taillon also had an excellent ground ball rate of 52.4% and likely got a little unlucky with a 15.5% HR/FB%. With the Pirates particularly keen on shifting in order to pick up extra ground ball outs, Taillon’s ability to generate grounders at such a rate will be a significant part of his value going forwards.
2017 Outlook
Taillon’s consensus projection puts him at 164 innings pitched, with 140 strikeouts, a 3.56 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, which would be worth $9 in a standard mixed league. However, much of the pessimism on the playing time front is down to ZiPS’ very conservative projection of just 112 IP. Taking out ZiPS bumps him up another eight innings and nine strikeouts.
That’s also not taking into account the possibility that Taillon takes a step forwards in his age-25 season. He’s already demonstrated that he has excellent control, and if he can translate that plus fastball and curveball into an above-average strikeout rate, there’s at least number two upside here. Taillon struck out 41 hitters and walked just four with the curve as well as producing an elite 66% ground ball rate, demonstrating its credentials as a true major league out pitch.
It’s important not to overlook the risks. Although the sample is small, Taillon was nowhere near as effective against left-handed hitters in 2016. If those issues continue, it will be difficult to reach his full potential. His sinker was also relatively ineffective, accounting for seven of the 13 home runs he gave up while not being particularly notable as a ground ball pitch.
The Pirates may also be cautious with his usage, even though he pitched almost 166 innings between Triple-A and the majors. It’s not unreasonable to expect 180 innings this season, but 200 could be pushing it, preventing Taillon from joining the elite in that category.
Overall, though, these are relatively small faults for an extremely exciting young pitcher. Taillon is currently 36th off the board among starters in ADP. If you can pick him up as a high-upside number four, the potential for value looks tremendous.
Check out all of our 2017 fantasy baseball player profiles
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Darius Austin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Darius, find his work at Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Banished to the Pen and Bat Flips & Nerds and follow him @DariusA64.
