While grabbing Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw in the first round is sure to help fantasy teams, the real way to separate yourself from the pack is to locate and secure value in later rounds throughout the draft. The easiest way to accomplish this is to target high-upside players that play up to their potential. Sure, you will whiff on some, but if you buy enough lottery tickets, you are sure to find significant value that more than covers your poor investments. Don’t believe me? Ask the guys who nabbed Jean Segura, Wil Myers and Hanley Ramirez last season. You were probably looking up at them in the standings last season. There are five types of upside players I like to look for. Today, I’ll give you a few practical examples of each of these types.
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Not Forecasted for Full Playing Time
Giancarlo Stanton (OF – MIA)
Sure, the Marlins’ outfielder has only played one full season in the past five years, but several of those seasons were lost due to fluke injuries like getting hit by a pitch in the face. The matter of the fact is that his odds of getting hurt this year are no worse than last season and he was drafted in the first round 12 months ago on upside alone.
Rich Hill (SP – LAD)
The Dodgers’ second ace has arguably been the second best pitcher in baseball since late 2015. Last season, he only started 20 games and he is now 37 years old, but he spent the past 10 seasons in the bullpen so he has the mileage on his arm of a 30-year-old. If he is on the field all season, he will compete for a Cy Young.
Others who fit the description
- J.D. Martinez (OF – DET)
- Lance McCullers (SP – HOU)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (SP – BOS)
- Greg Bird (1B – NYY)
Recent Great Seasons
Felix Hernandez (SP – SEA)
After a “rough” 2015, where he was named an all-star for the fifth straight season, mind you, King Felix didn’t bounce back in 2016. It was the first time in 11 seasons that he didn’t surpass 190 innings thrown, so we know he is durable, if only he can regain his consistency. Just three seasons ago, he posted a 2.14 ERA with 248 Ks and he is still young enough to return to that type of production.
Carlos Gomez (OF – TEX)
The Rangers’ new toy has been around so long that it is tough to remember he is still just 31 years old. After being traded to Texas last summer, he knocked 8 homers with 5 stolen bases and a .284/.362/.543 triple slash line. It was reminiscent of just two years prior when he batted .284 with 23 HR and 34 stolen bases. Perhaps he will break-back-out this season.
Others who fit the description
- Michael Wacha (SP – STL)
- Matt Harvey (SP – NYM)
- Yu Darvish (SP – TEX)
- Shelby Miller (SP – ARI)
Recent Top Prospects
Maikel Franco (3B – PHI)
Prior to being called up to the bigs and setting the world on fire in 2015, Franco hit 142 extra base hits in two seasons with a solid batting average and a low k-rate. Just because he “only” hit 25 homers with 88 RBIs in his age-23 season doesn’t mean he is done developing or anywhere close to it. The Phillies’ kid may just kick it up to 35 HR and a .275 average this time around.
Joey Gallo (1B/3B – TEX)
After 108 disappointing at-bats, the Rangers sent the best young power hitter in the world back down to the minor leagues where he again posted an OPS north of .900. Gallo is still just 23 years old and may eventually find his power stroke in the majors whether it is this season or in the future. He has managed to knock 154 homers in just 481 minor league games, which comes to 51.9 HR per 162 games.
Others who fit the description
- Jose Berrios (SP – MIN)
- Archie Bradley (SP – ARI)
- Jorge Soler (OF – KCR)
- Mike Zunino (C – SEA)
Bounce Back Year from Injury
Shin-Soo Choo (OF – TEX)
Since Choo became a regular in 2008, he is 6th in baseball at getting on base and has been a 20/20 player three times. This year, he is being drafted near the end of drafts, but has the upside to score over 100 runs, as he averaged in his last two full seasons. Keep in mind, he swatted 22 bombs in 2015 as well.
Michael Brantley (OF – CLE)
I get it, you were burned on him last year. I was too as he rotted away on my bench for half the season. That doesn’t mean it will happen in 2017, though. Brantley is still just 30 years old and if he does play a full season, you can expect 15+ homers, double-digit steals and a batting average north of .300. Even if he just plays 250 at-bats, that’s a steal at his current ADP.
Others who fit the description
- Lance Lynn (SP – STL)
- Pablo Sandoval (3B – BOS)
- Carter Capps (RP – SDP)
- A.J. Pollock (OF – ARI)
Recent Great Half-Seasons
Wil Myers (1B/OF – SDP)
The Padres’ star 26-year-old was on pace to bat .286 wth 35 HR and 28 SB for the season before he seemed to take it easy in the second half with a .223 BA and diminished power production. The point is, that he has the ability to produce at that level and if he does, you stole a top 10 player in the fourth round.
Miguel Sano (3B/OF – MIN)
Sano managed to bat just .236 because of his 178 Ks in 116 games. That doesn’t take into account the fact that he hits the ball harder than anyone not named Giancarlo Stanton, nor that he is still just 23 years old. If you spread his 2015 second-half out to a full season, he would have hit 37 homers with over 100 RBIs and a .269 BA. He clearly has the ability to reproduce, and even exceed those numbers.
Others who fit the description
- Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS)
- Justin Upton (OF – DET)
- Matt Kemp (OF – ATL)
- Yasmany Tomas (OF – ARI)
Thanks for reading and good luck in your drafts!
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