MFL10 Roster Construction: How to Target Each Position

Every MFL10 season we see a market swing based on the prior season. In 2016 there were eight running backs selected in the first two rounds. This year, we are seeing 10 running backs go in the first two rounds. We also see three running backs being taken in the first three picks off the board.

However, the first running back on average was not taken until the sixth pick in 2016. Even as the market corrects itself, we still see that optimal roster construction has remained fairly similar for two consecutive MFL10 seasons.

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Long story short, overall roster construction in MFL10s has remained stagnant. Ultimately, we are looking to draft two-to-three quarterbacks, three-to-seven running backs, six-to-10 wide receivers, two-to-three tight ends and two-to-three defenses, based on a study by Michael Beers of Rotoviz. The study shows us that drafting these positions outside of those ranges dramatically reduced the win rates for those teams.

We should also aim to have no more than 13 combined receivers and running backs on a roster. For example, drafting 10 WRs would be reserved for when we are only drafting three RBs.

That being said, deciding when we start drafting each of these positions is probably even more important in determining “how many” we want. Most importantly, drafting players outside of these positional constraints would be highly correlated to low win rates over the last two seasons.

We decide how many of each position are on the roster, based on the draft capital we have invested in the position in a particular draft. For example, if you’re drafting three running backs in the first three rounds, that roster would probably be best suited to simply have three running backs. If you haven’t drafted a running back until the third or later, then you would be best suited to have five-to-seven running backs.

The same applies for the wide receiver position. While this still applies for QB, TE and D/ST, it is not nearly as sticky. Let’s break down each position.

Running Back

The number one thing to remember going into your MFL10s is your entire draft should depend on our ability to address the running back position properly. Running back is going to be pretty messy until we get closer to the NFL Draft. By my count, there are between 8 – 12 NFL teams who could be starting someone different than their current RB1 in Week 1.

While some might think that this lends itself to drafting a surplus of late running backs, the reality is that it has increased the value of the early running backs. The best way to increase your win rate in these leagues is to land at least one dominant running back who can carry your “RB1” slot for the majority of the season.

Rotoviz also examined the win rates of each position for the 2016 MFL10 season and discovered that the biggest advantage came from dominant RB1s. The highest win rate of any player selected during the 2016 MFL season was David Johnson with an insane 26.3 percent rate. This means that 26.3 percent of teams rostering David Johnson came in first place.

LeSean McCoy and Demarco Murray both came in at nearly 20 percent win rates as well. For perspective, Jordy Nelson had the highest win rate of all wide receivers at 16.5 percent, and Drew Brees finished atop the QB leaderboard at 13.4 percent.

Keep in mind that the win rate needed to break even in MFL10s is 10 percent. 23 running backs finished with win rates over 10 percent.

If it wasn’t clear from the numbers above, running back is by far the most important position in MFL10s. His study also found that the optimal running back strategy essentially flip-flopped from 2015 to 2016, thus telling us that there is no exact science to drafting RBs.

What a difference a year makes. In 2016, #ZeroRB-esque drafting in #MFL10s was a lot more popular than in 2015, and a lot less successful! pic.twitter.com/EQ7CZ5NfmN

— Mike Beers (@beerswater) January 12, 2017

In 2015 there were 16 running backs selected in the first 32 picks, while only 12 were selected in 2016. This season, there are 14 running backs being selected in that range. While it feels like the drafts are as running back heavy as they were in 2015, it has not quite hit the running back hysteria that we saw in that league year.

In 2015 the suggested “optimal strategy” was that you needed to have four running backs in the first six rounds or you would not win your league – that did not work. The market then corrected itself, and that strategy produced the highest win rate in 2016. If history continues, then this season should fall somewhere in between 2015 and 2016.

Therefore we must decide how many running backs to draft, based on where we can pick them. If we manage to get two to three running backs in the first four rounds (don’t reach), then we should only need four running backs on that team. However, should the draft fall in a way that makes it difficult to grab early running backs, then we should be aiming to draft up to seven running backs to make up for the lack of dominant early round RBs.

The biggest piece of advice you should takeaway from this article: don’t be afraid to quit drafting running backs if you land four strong RB1/RB2 type players. However, if you don’t manage to get a running back in the first four rounds, don’t be afraid to load up on six to seven late round RBs to make up for it.

Wide Receiver

While our rosters should see the most coverage at the wide receiver position, the amount of receivers we should be drafting is solely dependent on how many running backs we are drafting. We see that strong wide receiver values in 2016 only led to win rates of greater than 10 percent for 20 receivers, with no receivers above a 16 percent win rate. Basically, this means that we are looking to take more of a shotgun approach at this position due to the weekly volatility.

Therefore, at the absolute minimum, you want to have six wide receivers on your roster, which should be reserved for the scenario in which your first three-to-four picks are going to receivers. In that scenario, the roster would most likely have six to seven running backs.

In a perfect world, a roster would have two RB1s and two RB2s in the first four rounds, followed by seven-to-nine value wide receivers. However, that is incredibly difficult to pull off this year with the current running back market.

Therefore the majority of my favorite rosters are ending up with five to six running backs while rostering eight to nine wide receivers. Just make sure to constantly monitor the ADP on the MFL10 website, and never reach for a player just to fill these number requirements – ultimately this is just a guideline because every draft is different.

Quarterback and Tight End

Quarterback and tight end should be addressed pretty similarly to wide receiver and running back. If you are stronger at quarterback, then you might as well invest one of your later picks into a third tight end. If you began investing draft capital into TE before that of QB, then you can invest that extra late pick into a third quarterback.

The main takeaway is that you should NEVER draft more than three players or less than two at either of these positions. Win rates took dramatic drops when they ventured outside of this range.

In the end, these are more “feel” positions. If you feel weak at the position, grab a third. If not, stick with two.

Defenses

There has been a lot of debate on whether or not to draft a third defense in MFL10 leagues. For me, I have almost never drafted a third defense in MFL10s, and I have had plenty of success. The most successful MFL10 player on the leaderboards “Aaron H,” is most often drafting two defenses as well.

Though the numbers show us that the win rates for both of these scenarios end up pretty similar at the end of the year. The way I see it – if I’m not gaining a significant advantage by drafting a third defense, why do it? That being said, if you feel weak at the position and want to draft a third D/ST, you aren’t hurting your chances.

Conclusion

How many of each position should you draft? The best answer is that “it depends.”

We want to carefully assess the draft capital that we have invested in each position and then follow the guidelines laid out in this article. The only actual answer is that we should never be drafting more or less of each position than what I have listed.

QB: 2-3
RB: 3-7
WR: 6-10
TE: 2-3
D/ST: 2-3

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