I’ll admit it, I’m hooked.
No, not on Stranger Things, not on Westworld, not even on a feeling. My addiction is much worse than that.
I’m hooked on Michael Pineda.
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Now, I know I’m talking about a guy who has a career 3.99 ERA. But Pineda has long been a favorite of sabermetricians everywhere, consistently striking out 25 percent of batters while posting miniscule walk numbers. His ERA numbers are unsightly, but the underlying metrics paint Pineda in a somewhat better light. Even with a 3.80 ERA last year that was the highest in his four professional years, he still boasts a 3.42 career FIP and 3.28 career xFIP. He’s always been good at getting guys out – it’s the mistakes that he makes just a little bit too often that bloat his ERA.
If you’re like me, you still believe in Pineda’s raw talent and hope that this could be the year he breaks out. You’re probably also still waiting for Firefly to be renewed. There are many reasons, though, why this could finally be his year. For one, Pineda struck out more batters last year than ever before while also generating more swings and misses. If they’re not hitting the ball, they’re not getting it out of the park, and Pineda has undoubtedly gotten better in that regard.
Pineda’s 14.1 swinging strike percentage ranked fourth in baseball last year among qualified pitchers, and his 14.4 mark in the second half ranked second only to Max Scherzer. He also allowed contact at the third-lowest rate last year, behind only Scherzer and the late Jose Fernandez.
His strikeout and swinging strike rates were likely aided by an increase in his velocity. According to Brooks Baseball, Pineda throws a cutter roughly 50 percent of the time, the most often out of any of his pitches. Also according to Brooks Baseball, that same cutter’s velocity jumped nearly 1.5 MPH between 2015 and 2016 from 93.3 to 94.8 MPH.
Of course, not everything was positive from last year, or else Pineda would have been a bona fide ace. He walked seven percent of batters he faced last year, which was higher than either of the previous two years but still lower than the league average. He also gave up hard contact at a career-high rate, a perilous notion when playing in Yankee Stadium. As his xFIP shows, he was unlucky in the HR/FB department, but he still needs to limit hard contact in order to find success.
The Lineup
This will be Pineda’s fourth season in pinstripes. The Yankees were the definition of average on the defensive side of the ball last season, placing 14th in UZR/150 and 15th in DRS. Not much has changed in regard to personnel, so a similar output can be expected.
The real problem with the team is the stadium in which it plays. According to ESPN’s park factors, Yankee Stadium was the worst for pitchers in terms of home runs allowed. Pineda has clearly had problems with this in the past, and those problems probably won’t magically disappear.
The Expectations
Over the past three years, Pineda’s ERA stands at 4.10. If you exclude his 2014 in which he only pitched 76 innings, it’s 4.60. That’s about as encouraging as a movie starring Nicholas Cage. Of course, strikeouts are counted in every league as well, and he’s a huge asset in that category. If Pineda was able to just limit the runs, he’d be an ace.
Which is why this article is intriguing. Of course, every pitcher has high expectations during Spring Training, but Pineda has identified his main problem and is directly looking to address it. He acknowledged he needs to finish innings, especially after allowing a .325/.383/.598 line and 13 home runs with two outs in 2016. Identifying a problem and fixing it are two vastly different things, but if Pineda is able to limit the damage with two outs, look for his ERA to improve dramatically.
The Value
It seems that people have been burned by Pineda one too many times. In the Expert Consensus Rankings, he’s ranked 54th among starting pitchers and 200th overall. He’s viewed even less favorably by drafters, being taken 61st among starting pitchers and 207th overall. Of course, those numbers are simply an average of his two possible outcomes. If he can improve his ERA, he belongs in the top 20. Otherwise, he’ll finish outside the top 100. It’s up to you to determine how much risk you’re willing to take on with Pineda, but he can pay off in big ways if you nab him at where he’s going.
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Brian Reiff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.
